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| Jeff Risdon. 1st August, 2009 - 12:44 pm
 2008 record: 9-7
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +4, Sack Differential: -3, Point Differential: +38
Coming In: LB Angelo Crowell, RB Derrick Ward, TE Kellen Winslow, K Mike Nugent, QB Byron Leftwich, LB Niko Koutouvides
Going Out: LB Derrick Brooks, QB Jeff Garcia, CB Philip Buchanon, WR Joey Galloway, RB Warrick Dunn, DE Jovan Haye, WR Ike Hilliard, LB Cato June, TE Alex Smith
Key Rookies: QB Josh Freeman, CB E.J. Biggers, DT Roy Miller
Offense
QB: For many Bucs fans, the biggest failure of the Jon Gruden era was how the celebrated QB guru failed to ever settle the position. It remains a steaming, messy heap following his departure. Training camp will begin with holdover Luke McCown as the starter, but it?s a 3-man race between McCown, Byron Leftwich, and rookie 1st rounder Josh Freeman. McCown has demonstrated a very strong arm in his limited appearances, but harnessing that arm in the constraints of an NFL offense has proven elusive. Leftwich was an adequate starter for several seasons in Jacksonville, but his extended delivery, immobility and inconsistent field vision relegated him to backup duty in Pittsburgh. Leftwich has the motivational chip of trying to prove doubters wrong, and his Steelers stint appears to have taught him well. McCown has a higher ceiling but a more unreliable elevator. In either case, the Buccaneers have deployed every talisman of luck that one of them can keep them competitive, much in the way Jeff Garcia kept the ship high on the seas last year.
Josh Freeman is also in the mix, but even Tampa Bay management will admit that they really don?t want him to play in 2009. Built similarly to Daunte Culpepper and with some of the same traits, Freeman has a hitchy delivery that needs polish and very inconsistent footwork. At times he looked like an excellent prospect, but much of his Kansas State career was spent looking like a late-round developmental project.
RB: Former Giant Derrick Ward will spearhead the attack, pairing with returning hybrid RB/FB Earnest Graham for what the Bucs hope is an effective thunder/lightning package. It?s not out of the question that it will work, but it?s not an ideal duo. Ward is a smart, patient runner with good balance and strength. His compact build belies his quick acceleration, and he can lower the shoulder if needed. That attribute is what Graham brings in spades, even though he?s smaller than Ward and spent some time as the blocking back. Both are adequate receivers out of the backfield and both have experience sharing the load. It?s just not a very fast or real creative combo; both are straight-ahead runners with little open field skill or cutback ability.
FB B.J. Askew is a versatile jack-of-all trades blocker that fits well with a West Coast offense, and he doesn?t need the ball more than once every couple of games. They sorely lack a proven 3rd down/change of pace speed back, though the team is high on Clifton Smith. The sad chapter of the Cadillac Williams story appears at an end, as he suffered yet another devastating knee injury that will almost certainly end his once-promising career. He?s one to root for, but it looks like the end has come.
WR/TE: This unit certainly does not lack for size. Antonio Bryant comes off a revelatory season where he finally emerged as the talented #1 wideout everyone thought he?d be coming out of Pitt. Blessed with great strength for his size and exceptionally strong hands, Bryant had long struggled with mental lapses and lazy routes before breaking out in 2008. He really improved at catching the ball in traffic and securing the ball quickly. He?s not a speedster, however, and the loss of Joey Galloway on the other side (not to mention the loss of Garcia) figures to negatively impact Bryant. Galloway?s role now falls to Michael Clayton, who is still living off a great rookie year several disappointing seasons later. Like Bryant, he?s very big and strong. Clayton has long struggled with iffy hands and imprecise route running, and he lacks the speed and agility to get consistent separation. The team has high hopes for Maurice Stovall, but he has struggled with injuries and getting separation as well. The rest of the WR spots are up for grabs between underwhelming prospects, the best of which is Kelly Campbell. Last year?s 2nd rounder, Dexter Jackson, was completely lost as a rookie and might not make the team if he?s not contributing on return units. This group does not scare anyone deep, and that is a problem for the run game.
The Bucs dealt for talented but troubled TE Kellen Winslow in hopes of bolstering the passing attack. When healthy and of sound mind and attitude, Winslow is an elite talent with too much speed for LBs and too much size and strength for DBs. The problem is that K2 attains that status for about three weeks every season before he either gets hurt or disgruntled. Between his shoulder and knee issues, it?s a huge gamble for a player who relished making waves in the locker room in Cleveland. Jerramy Stevens returns as a very capable pass-catching #2 TE. The Bucs are hoping his ability to overcome personal issues resonates with Winslow. John Gilmore is a better-than-adequate blocking TE who will catch 12-15 passes a season reliably.
OL: One of the best young units in the league, this O-line features two Pro Bowl-caliber talents in RG Davin Joseph and C Jeff Faine. Joseph is perhaps the best guard in the league--big, athletic, technically proficient, and flat-out nasty. He pairs nicely with Faine, an undersized but crafty signal caller with very good hands. Whoever wins the QB job will be thankful to have the heady, reliable Faine giving him the ball. LT Donald Penn is a wall in pass protection, and his lateral agility markedly improved in 2008. He?s a read-and-react type of player, which helps in pass blocking but prevents him from getting much surge in run blocking. His counterpart on the right side, Jeremy Trueblood, has the opposite problem. Hyper-aggressive and one of the meanest players in the league, the massive Trueblood thrives at firing out and attacking in run blocking. His knees almost never bend and his feet don?t move as fast as his brain, leaving him lunging and grabbing way too much in pass protect mode. He fared much better when covered by a TE, however. The new zone blocking scheme does not appear to play to his strengths.
The Bucs have an interesting battle at LG. Returning starter Arron Sears is locked in a fight with young Jeremy Zuttah for the position, and it?s one of those rare battles where both men are good enough to start. Zuttah is more versatile and would be the top reserve at every spot except RT, so look for Sears to keep the starting gig. Sears is a behemoth but has some agility and understands what the defense is trying to do. He is not helping himself by missing the start of camp with ?personal issues?, which might be related to a nasty concussion last season. Sean Mahan flopped as a starter in Pittsburgh but is a reliable backup at both C and G. Tampa Bay made a nice late pick in T Xavier Fulton, though he?s likely to miss this year with injuries. Another rookie, undrafted Maurice Miller, graded out higher than more heralded Ole Miss teammate Michael Oher in more games last year and could stick.
Defense
DL: Major changes abound, though it will largely be the same personnel. Gone is the 1-3-5 gap scheme that epitomizes Monte Kiffin?s Tampa 2, and in its place comes a heads-up style that favors size and power. Those two concepts do not blend well, and this could be a major disaster as the team adjusts. The best player up front, DE Gaines Adams, led the team in sacks last year (6.5, nothing to write home about) while lining up outside where most 5-technique tackles start. Now he?ll be directly over the tackle, and he?ll surrender at least 60 pounds and lots of strength in matchups that require more power and less speed, and Adams is predominantly a speed guy. His quick first step is blunted working inside, and that trashes any chance for consistency, which has plagued his NFL career.
It would work a lot better if the man inside him was a beefy space-eater, but Chris Hovan plays at around 290, which makes him woefully undersized for this scheme as well. He flushed out of Minnesota for that very reason, not a lack of effort or heart. Ryan Sims has the beef, but he?s simply underachieved and struggled with conditioning and injuries. Two youngsters, Dre Moore and rookie Roy Miller, offer some hope. Miller in particular made a lot of plays in a similar scheme at Texas, and he knows how to use his feet inside. Moore played little as a rookie but seems a better fit with the new defense. Neither will provide much pass rush up the gut, but they should at least curb the run inside during their turn in the rotation.
Greg ?I refuse to call you Stylez? White will start opposite Adams, and he needs a strong bounceback season. The name change apparently took away his ability to finish sacks, and he must provide more consistent pressure or else Adams will struggle even more. Rookie Kyle Moore is somewhat of a DE/DT tweener, but if he can display the quickness he flashed during workouts, he could take White?s job. Jimmy Wilkerson is also in the mix if his fire gets ignited. The Bucs are hopeful that competition can bring out the best all over the front, but that philosophy just led Detroit to 0-16. Expect a very rough season ranking near the bottom (again) in sacks while the players adjust and the pecking order sorts itself. The late-season collapse last season was no fluke.
LB: It will be very strange not seeing Derrick Brooks patrolling the weak side, even though the Bucs were right to sever ties with his rapidly diminishing skills. Replacing the future Hall of Famer and poster boy of the Tampa 2 defense is Jermaine Phillips, moving up from safety. His lack of speed won?t hurt him as much at LB, and he hits and tackles with the requisite LB power and control. Coverage shouldn?t be an issue for a converted safety; it?s dealing with blockers and starting closer to the line that are concerns. Tampa is fine in the middle with Barrett Ruud, a Pro Bowl-caliber player. He will presumably be asked to blitz more and do less in coverage, though he?s excellent at dropping into zone. Ruud is one of the surest tacklers in the game and has a great nose for the ball, paired with his tremendous application of opponent film study that allows him to read plays quicker than most.
There is a training camp battle for the SAM position, which traditionally favors physical blitzers in Bates? defense. Since they don?t have anyone remotely resembling that, expect former Bill Angelo Crowell to have the leg up. The biggest of the competitors at 6?1? and 240 pounds, Crowell has good speed and closes under control. He is coming off knee surgery that cost him 2008, and if he loses any of his speed he?s in trouble. Quincy Black has shown great wheels in limited snaps, but like Crowell he has major issues avoiding blockers and sifting through traffic. Adam Hayward is also in the mix, but he is more valuable as a swing backup and on special teams. Harkening back to the Kiffin days, this group has outstanding speed and is a major asset in coverage, but lacks size and much experience rushing the passer or forcing turnovers.
DB: The starting 4 are still a very solid group, led by venerable CB Ronde Barber. Though he?s lost a half-step and doesn?t lay the lumber as hard as in years past, Barber has an incredibly high football IQ and has mastered playing the angles. As has been the case his entire career, he?s an elite corner in terms of run support. He still has gas in the tank, and he fit the cloud zone shell (they played more Cover 4 than Cover 2) nicely. New DC Jim Bates prefers the bump-and-run style and tighter starts to the line, which could hurt Barber in coverage. Replacing unheralded but inconsistent Philip Buchanon is 2nd year man Aqib Talib, the team?s first round pick in 2008. He started slowly but Talib displayed outstanding ball skills and closing speed. He broke up at least 2 passes in each of the last 3 games and has the requisite pairing of extreme confidence and a short memory that all elite corners possess. Talib is the best bet for a true defensive playmaker that the Bucs have.
The nickel and dime spots are green. The Bucs love second year player Elbert Mack, who is on the small side but has a great fight/size of dog ratio. He will start as the nickel, but don?t be surprised if he?s pushed by rookie 7th rounder EJ Biggers. Biggers is bigger (yes, I?m aware that?s cheesy) and played some bump-and-run in college, plus he?s an excellent tackler. Torrie Cox needs to contribute more on special teams or else he?ll lose his roster spot; he?s a journeyman corner who happens to have never left the Bucs. Kyle Arrington is the ?uh oh, we?re out of other options? depth corner, though there has been some talk of bringing in a veteran more versed in Bates? system. They certainly have the cap room to do so.
The starting safeties should thrive in the new system. FS Tanard Jackson had a down year in 2008 after an impressive rookie campaign, though he remained quite good at stopping WR YAC. He needs to make more of those hits a step quicker and make plays on the ball instead of the receiver--he has the physical skills to do so. Those tackling skills helped make him very solid in run support. Sabby Piscitelli jumps up the depth chart to replace Phillips at the strong safety spot, and this is a potential concern. It could also be a very positive development. He has the range and energy to be a good one, but his mastery of football geometry is decidedly lacking. Like many bigger young DBs, Sabby often fails to wrap after his hits, and the receivers that went down in college keep on running in the NFL. If he responds to the challenge and can apply the lessons of the film room, Piscitelli will be just fine. Will Allen is a capable #3 safety, better in coverage than run support.
Special Teams: One of the most moving moments in all of sports came last year when K Matt Bryant nailed a game-winning FG just hours after burying his young son. He?s one of the most respected kickers in any locker room in the league. The Bucs reward that by...bringing in Mike Nugent to take his job. Nugent has much better leg strength but isn?t much better (3-for-9) than Bryant (2-for-10) on 50+ FGs, plus he?s coming off a terrible injury for a kicker, a badly pulled hamstring. I understand the need to improve length on kickoffs, but there is so much negative karma being generated here that it wouldn?t surprise me at all if the team brings Bryant back in October after Nugent hooks a 43-yarder that would have won a game.
Punter Josh Bidwell faces no competition for a reason--he?s a very good one. Directional kicking and hang time, not booming length, are his calling cards. Clifton Smith burst onto the scene and into the Pro Bowl as a return specialist, taking 2 kicks (one punt and one kickoff) to the house. He?s a real treat to watch on punt returns. Rookie Sammie Stroughter is almost identical physically and was electrifying in college as a return man, so there is depth and potential for chicanery. The coverage units are very solid, as you?d expect from a team chock full of speedy LBs and big safeties.
3 Keys to the season:
1. Can whomever wins the QB derby generate any sort of passing threat with a subpar group of WRs to take the pressure off what could be a very good running game?
2. How well a fast-but-smallish defense adapts to a radically different scheme and the loss of their leaders (Kiffin and Brooks)
3. The progression of the on-the-job training of young coach Raheem Morris and GM Mark Dominik, who together barely equal the age of departed Monte Kiffin.
Forecast:
This sure sets up as a tough season for the Pewter Pirates, perhaps their worst since the pre-Dilfer era. But I applaud the swift end to the Gruden era and so many aging vets; this team was unlikely to compete for a playoff berth even with Brooks & Dunn, et al. No NFC team has a longer shot at the playoffs this season, not even the Lions. The QB issues, the precocious coach and GM, the changing of the guard on defense, the tough division--it all adds up to a very long season full of growing pains and ugly losses. A look at the schedule is ominous; they will be underdogs in all 7 games before their bye week and will be lucky to win more than one of them. The Bucs finish 3-13 and challenge for the #1 overall pick in the 2010 draft.
The author, who proudly sported a Lee Roy Selmon jersey as a grade schooler, can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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