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Auditing The Chicago Bears 2008 Season
Christopher Reina. 24th February, 2009 - 4:08 pm


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Record: 9-7
Trench Counter: 0.4 (18th)
Point differential per game: +1.6 (17th)
Payroll: $120M (10th)
Cost Per Win: $13.3M (15h)
Passing offense: 191.3 (21st)
Rushing offense: 104.6 (24th)
Passing defense: 241.2 (30th)
Rushing defense: 93.5 (5th)
Turnover differential: 0.3 (8th)
Strength of schedule: 11th

If their season were a song: Where Do You Go To (My Lovely) - Peter Sarstedt

Game-by-Game (Score, Trench Counter)
Week 1: at IND, 29-13 Win, 3.1
Week 2: at CAR, 17-20 Loss, -5.0
Week 3: TB, 24-27 Loss, 6.7
Week 4: PHI, 24-20 Win, -9.7
Week 5: at DET, 34-7 Win, 16.4
Week 6: at ATL, 20-22 Loss, -4.1
Week 7: MIN, 48-41 Win, 4.7
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: DET, 27-23 Win, 6.3
Week 10: TEN, 14-21 Loss, 1.9
Week 11: at GB, 3-37 Loss, -16.7
Week 12: at STL, 27-3 Win, 24.2
Week 13: at MIN, 14-34 Loss, -19.1
Week 14: JAX, 23-10 Win, 4.6
Week 15: NO, 27-24 Win, -2.4
Week 16: GB, 20-17 Win, -3.2
Week 17: at HOU, 24-31 Loss, -1.4

Season Summary

Kyle Orton was the solution more than the answer at quarterback while Matt Forte was a horse for the Bears in all facets of the offense and was the leader at running back in FIC. As a team, the Bears were 25th in passer rating, the lowest by any team to finish over .500. Orton surely didn't have much to work with for targets to throw to. They lost Bernard Berrian to the Vikings and their three leading receivers were a converted returner (Devin Hester), a tight end (Greg Olsen) and their running back (Forte).

The Chicago defense was good against the run, but gave up a lot of longs passing plays. They were 30th in yards allowed, but were 2nd in the NFL in takeaways with 32 and therefore had the 10th best passer rating against them with a mark of 75.8. The ability to force turnovers was largely a deodorant for a deteriorating defensive unit.

Reina Value and FIC Rank

- Click here for information on the Reina Value and Field Impact Counter

Rank at position, season FIC total and Reina Value listed in parenthesis below.

Quarterbacks

- Kyle Orton (21st, 627, +81%)

Orton came into the season with a 12-6 record as a starter and without a dominant defense, he was 9-6 in 2008. He had a a passer rating below 50 in Weeks 13 and 14, which were both Chicago wins and in Week 17 with a playoff berth on the line he had a 97.1 rating. The Bears lost that game in Houston and were eliminated from playoff consideration. With the way the Bears are constructed, they don't need a top quarterback lining up behind center and his 79.6 passer rating in 2008 is plenty good enough if the defense plays at the level their reputation suggests.

Orton also will have his numbers improve dramatically with an improved receiving corps, which was clearly one of the worst in the NFL and the loss of Bernard Berrian was tremendously costly.

- Rex Grossman (47th, 64, -46%)

If Grossman returns to the Super Bowl, it will be with a different team. He was 32-for-62 in his three appearances and had a 59.7 passer rating.

Running Backs

- Matt Forte (1st, 746 [401 rushing, 345 receiving], +1,052%)

Forte had an excellent rookie season and was clearly the offense's most valuable player. He rushed for 1,238 yards with a respectable 3.9 yards per carry average and was incredibly valuable in the passing game, catching a team-high 63 balls for 477 yards.

- Adrian Peterson (92nd, 64 [34 rushing, 30 receiving], -11%)

Peterson only had 20 carries, but had a very good 5.0 yards per carry average.

- Kevin Jones (114th, 32 [28 rushing, 5 receiving], +0%)

Jones came over from Detroit and had just 109 yards on 34 carries as he continues to look like another 1st round Matt Millen bust.

Wide Receivers

- Devin Hester (44th, 423, +74%)

The Bears need to keep Hester on the field, but in terms of production, he was far more valuable to them when he was primarily a return man. He scored five touchdowns as a rookie, six in his second season (another two receiver) and just three in 2008. He led the team in receiving yards, but that number was just 665, which is what a third receiver on an effective passing team will post.

- Rashied Davis (69th, 289, +78%)

Davis had a career season with 35 catches for 445 yards.

- Brandon Lloyd (81st, 235, +154%)

Lloyd bounced back from a miserable 2007 in Washington by catching 26 balls for 364 yards. The 49ers thought they might have found a sleeper for a few moments and Lloyd will be 28 at the start of 2009 and he is a third option to be generous.

Tight Ends

- Greg Olsen (11th, 387, +144%)

Olsen showed why the Bears used a 2007 first round pick on him by catching 54 balls for 574 yards. He also scored five touchdowns and will continue to be extremely valuable until Chicago drafts or signs a legitimate wide receiver or two.

- Desmond Clark (25th, 243, -26%)

Clark has had a tremendous career for a player selected in the 6th round, catching 300+ balls for almost 3,500 yards in his career, but he was clearly in decline in 2008.

Defensive Summary

Though they are clearly aging, the Bears defense has been a shadow of its Super bowl self over the past two seasons. Their secondary is in shambles and they will have to replace Mike Brown at safety, probably from the outside since Craig Steltz is all they have left at the position.

Brian Urlacher faded in 2008, but Lance Briggs carried a bigger load and was a Pro Bowler. Urlacher's lack of size was exposed as Chicago's defensive line wasn't nearly as solid as it had been in previous seasons and Rod Marinelli gives the unit optimism on that front.

Biggest draft needs

Chicago is desperate for a difference maker at defensive end and safety. With this year's draft class, the Bears are likely to get better value at DE with their first pick, possibly in the form of Aaron Maybin.

I expect the Bears to take shots in later rounds on wide receivers and safety.


Previous Audits

32. Detroit Lions

31. St. Louis Rams

30. Oakland Raiders

29. Cleveland Browns

28. Seattle Seahawks

27. Cincinnati Bengals

26. Kansas City Chiefs

25. Jacksonville Jaguars

24. Buffalo Bills

23. Denver Broncos

22. San Francisco 49ers

21. Dallas Cowboys

20. Houston Texans

19. Green Bay Packers

- Chris Reina is the executive editor of RealGM
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