| Andrew Perna. 13th January, 2009 - 2:27 pm
 It's no secret that running back Darren Sproles earned himself a sizable payday with his play for the Chargers in the final third of the season.
With the immortal LaDainian Tomlinson slowing down and preparing for his 30th birthday this coming June, it appears as though San Diego will give serious consideration to somehow parting ways with LT and placing their stock in Sproles, who is four years younger and has much less wear on his tires.
It's obvious that the Chargers will have to think long and hard about what to do with Tomlinson and Sproles, the hot free-agent-to-be.
At 25, Sproles' current age, LT rushed for 1,335 yards and had a league-high 17 touchdowns. However, you can't compare the two running backs in those terms because Sproles has been playing behind the legendary Tomlinson for his entire three-year career.
Let's not forget that Sproles also played behind Michael Turner during the first two years of his NFL career.
In 2007, the final season that Tomlinson, Turner, and Sproles all shared a backfield, Turner (71) had nearly twice the number of carries as Sproles (37) and narrowly edged him in yards per carry (4.5 to 4.4) However, Sproles reached the end zone twice to Turner's once and showed better hands as a receiver.
Even as Atlanta's starter this season, Turner had just six receptions for 41 yards. Sproles tallied 29 catches for 342 yards and five touchdowns in 2008 as San Diego's secondary back.
With that said, in order to be a productive player Sproles really has to have good hands because of his diminutive size. Both Tomlinson (220 pounds) and Turner (235 lbs) are 5'10", while Sproles is just 5'6" and weighs only 180 pounds.
Turner landed a six-year contract with the Falcons last offseason worth roughly $34.5 million ($11 million guaranteed) after impressing as Tomlinson's backup.
Regardless of whether or not San Diego is Sproles' top suitor, he'll become the second Chargers' backup to score a much-improved deal after starring as the second option on the ground.
There are a number of good options at running back in this year's free agent class, which could put a cap on what Sproles will make, especially with more proven options like Brandon Jacobs on the market.
Sproles had a base salary of $1.1 million in 2008, according to USA Today. His contract counted roughly $1.2 million towards San Diego's cap because of various bonuses, including a signing one, this season.
Turner made roughly $2.35 in his final year with the Chargers, so it's safe to assume that Sproles will at least get bumped up to that level.
As great as he was in the playoffs and at the end of the regular season, Sproles ranked just 60th in the NFL in rushing yards. He ran 61 times for 330 yards and one touchdown. He averaged 5.4 yard per carry, thanks in large part to three runs of more than 20 yards.
In Week 17 against the Broncos, in a game the Chargers needed to win, Sproles had a season-best 115 rushing yards and a touchdown on fourteen carries. He also hauled in two catches for 17 yards and another score. No, you aren't seeing things. He tallied 34.8% of his season rushing yardage in one game.
It's truly hard to gauge what kind of back Sproles would be with a steadier diet of touches. He believes that he can handle a full rushing load, but because of his size and the NFL's fondness for "committees" there isn't a team out there that will rush him twenty times a game.
He has surpassed that mark just twice in his career.
The most recent was against the Colts this postseason when he rushed 22 times for 105 yards and two scores. In Week 15 of the 2007 season he ran 25 times in a 51-14 rout of the Lions. Sproles turned in 122 yards and two scores in that performance.
He won't be able to maintain such tremendous efficiency over an entire season with increased attention, but he could rush an average of ten times per game over a full campaign. That would make him similar to New York's Derrick Ward, who joined teammate Brandon Jacobs in the 1,000-yard club with an average of 11.4 carries per game.
Teams like Philadelphia, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis that have elite backs --- in Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Willie Parker, and Joseph Addai, respectively -- could certainly use a guy like Sproles to lessen the pressure on their "studs".
For his career, Sproles has a yards per carry mark of 5.1, but only seven of the NFL's top-50 rushers topped that mark in 2008. I hate to keep bringing up his size, but he is smaller than everyone of the top rushers from this past season, with Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew (5'7", 208 lbs.) the closest to his stature.
Let's say for arguments' sake, Sproles signs on with a team to rush ten times a game, 160 carries for the season, and he's able to gain 4.5 yards per attempt.
That's significantly lower than his career average but a touch better than the standard for the NFL's best runners. The reason being that Sproles might gain just a yard or two on some carries because of his size disadvantage, but he's also capable breaking at least one huge run per game because of his speed.
My assumed statistics would give Sproles roughly 720 rushing yards, to go along with some above average receiving totals. Such production would place him a touch above guys like Julius Jones (698 yards this season) and Sammy Morris (727 in 2008).
That also places him in the same conversation as LenDale White (773 yards on 200 attempt, but with 15 TD's), Warrick Dunn (786 yards on 186 touches), and Jones-Drew (824 yards on 197 carries).
Here are the 2008 cap values for the aforementioned players:
Jones, Seattle – $1,500,000
Morris, New England – $2,131,720
White, Tennessee – $870,000
Dunn, Tampa Bay – $3,004,800
Jones-Drew, Jacksonville – $685,480
White and Jones-Drew were playing in just their third season, and were undoubtedly worth more than they earned (they had Reina Values of 70% and 780%).
I expect that whoever signs Sproles to give him a deal of around $24 million over five years.
Turner's base salary with Atlanta this season was just $1 million, with a huge signing bonus of $15 million. Similarly, Thomas Jones received base salaries of $900,000 and $2 million in 2007 and 2008, respectively, from the Jets. However, he received $6 million each year as a signing bonus.
Sproles could receive an escalating base salary beginning at around $2 million in 2009, with around $10 million of his contract's worth issued in the form of the signing bonus.
Regardless of exactly how much he makes, Sproles won't have an issue cashing in after a strong performance towards the end of the season.
The question remains -- will San Diego throw cash at him, or will he bolt out from behind Tomlinson's shadow similar to the way Turner did last offseason?
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM’s Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
