| Anthony Holds. 24th December, 2008 - 10:32 am
 It is conventionally held that the holidays are a time for giving (and some receiving) while the New Year brings a chance for fresh starts and resolutions to fix things in our lives.
It is certainly no different in the life of a playoff-bound football team. In the case of the Indianapolis Colts, Christmas has come and gone. The team has rebounded from a horrible 3-4 start to give a nervous fan base an exhilarating 8-game winning streak and its seventh consecutive playoff appearance.
The team was given the opportunity to clinch their spot a week before the end of the season and rest nicked-up players in their season finale, an essentially meaningless tilt against divisional rival and number one AFC playoff seed Tennessee. Many believe that yet another somewhat belated gift will be bestowed on Colts' fans if Peyton Manning is named to his third NFL MVP award in about a week.
With all of that giving and receiving wrapping up, attention can begin to turn to New Years' resolutions...those promises we all make ourselves and only the most committed and disciplined ever keep. If
the Colts hope to make another storybook run to a championship, there are some resolutions they need to make as 2009 dawns.
Keep them, and they may end up with a second set of rings. Break them, and they'll more than likely be home before '09 is more than two weeks old.
Without further ado, then...the 2008 Indianapolis Colts' New Years resolutions for the 2009 playoffs: each of them simple on paper, but challenging in reality.
Resolution #1: GET THE DEFENSE OFF THE FIELD ON THIRD DOWN
The Colts' defense has made some nice strides in 2008. They started off miserably against the run, gradually became more respectable in that regard (they're now ranked 23rd), and have become more and more opportunistic as the season has gone along.
Outstanding defensive ends Robert Mathis (11.5 sacks) and Dwight Freeney (10.5 sacks) are both on their way to Honolulu for the Pro Bowl in February. Although
injury and attrition have presented challenges along the defensive line and in the secondary, the Colts have happily discovered a few young and talented contributors in defensive tackle Antonio Johnson, safety Melvin Bullitt, and cornerback Keiwan Ratliff.
Now they find themselves ranked #12 in the league in overall defense. Not bad, right?
Tack on that (knock on wood) it appears they will go into the playoffs with virtually all of their starters on the field (only cornerback Marlin Jackson, out for the season, is not expected to be present), and the picture is reasonably rosy.
But here's the rub: they've still been maddeningly inconsistent about getting off the field on third down. Take the last game, against Jacksonville, in
which the struggling Jaguars moved the ball far too consistently (409 net yards) and won the time of possession battle, and you know this issue is alive, well, and worrisome, going into the postseason.
The bottom line: Peyton Manning is at the absolute top of his game right now. To win, you keep the ball in his hands as much as possible. If you fail to do that on a consistent basis in the playoffs, the dam will eventually break, teams will score, and you will lose.
Resolution #2: RUN THE BALL DECENTLY
Only because the Colts' passing game has been so dominant recently does this take second fiddle to the defensive resolution. The old saw that you win in the postseason by running the ball and stopping the run? It's not an old saw for no reason.
These remain the two surest ways to win in January. The Colts are not, under any circumstances, going to suddenly have complete offensive balance in the playoffs. But they need to raise their per carry average up from
the paltry 3.5 that both Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes have averaged in the regular season.
Something just north of four yards per carry would be a better number if they want to give themselves the best chance to open things up more for the pass and control the clock late in close games in hostile environments.
Remember the 2006 Colts? They were only a decent running team in the regular season, but come the postseason they wore down the Baltimore Ravens, the New England Patriots, and ultimately the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI, with a surprisingly smash-mouth two-headed running attack that
featured the very two runners who will be carrying the load again this time around.
Dungy has said in recent days that the team is very close to clicking in this area. He has said the same on the run -- stopping side of things to a skeptical media and fan base in the past and been proven right. Colts fans can only hope that the potential he sees for significant short-term improvement in this area will be realized come next month.
It is not fair, or realistic, to expect Manning to play perfect games and pull the team's chips out of the
fire in four consecutive playoff games. He's going to need help, and the running game will have to provide it.
Resolution #3: WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE
As opposed to something the team needs to change, this is something the team needs to continue. After some uncharacteristic turnovers early in the season which were part and parcel of the team's worst start in years, the Colts have returned to their position as one of the best squads in the area of turnover differential in the league.
They currently are +9 in that department, which is tied for third best in the NFL. This absolutely has to continue in the playoffs or their run will be a short one. The defense has largely masked their inability to hold teams on third down with key sacks, fumble recoveries, and interceptions.
This must continue no matter what other improvements are made, in that it allows the team, once again, to get the ball back into Manning's hands, often with a short field. These types of short field possessions and quick scores can often be the difference in playoff games.
Again, it all comes down to Peyton Manning and this offense. The Colts must get other teams stopped so that he has time to work his magic. They must run the ball to make his job a little easier. And they must make big plays on defense to get him the rock back, while avoiding turnovers on offense that put him back on the sideline.
There is nothing at all revelatory about these three resolutions.
They are not so different from the resolutions that every playoff-bound squad would be making this time of year. But they are especially key for the Colts, a team with the personnel and experience to make a run if they just keep these promises to themselves and their fans.
Ultimately, it will be about execution and, as Tony Dungy is so fond of saying, being just "a little bit better". |
