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| Matthew Gordon. 20th December, 2008 - 10:06 pm
 This past weekend in Baltimore, a fan held up a sign saying ?Good Ol Smashmouth Football?. That?s what the game was, with a lot of great defense and all of one touchdown (and even that was questionable, according to Ravens coach John Harbaugh). Meanwhile, a trip further south showed something with more offense but with a similar tone: the Carolina Panthers annihilated the Denver Broncos 30-10, going 8-0 at home on the season.
This Sunday?s games, between the Steelers and Titans and between the Panthers and Giants, are undoubtedly the two most important games of the season. One decides NFC home-field advantage, as the winner will be a game up on the loser with the tiebreaker and only one to go. The other basically decides AFC home-field advantage, although if the Steelers win, they could still lose next week and the Titans could win, thus giving the regular season crown back to Tennessee.
The Panthers and Steelers, both 11-3, have emerged as two of the most smashmouth teams in football, if not the two most. The Panthers have ridden the combination of a great goal line offense, a punishing front seven and mental toughness that was lacking last year to emerge as the clear-cut forerunner in the slaughterhouse known as the NFC South. The Steelers, while exhibiting some of their worst rushing in recent memory largely due to Willie Parker?s undulating medical situation, have put forth one of the greatest defenses of all time to this point, led by James Harrison, to whom I would give the MVP right now if I had that power.
Neither team has lost in the past three weeks, while the Titans are coming off a loss to streaking division rival Houston and the Giants have dropped two straight in the division. Momentum works both ways here, with the visiting teams (Panthers and Steelers) playing better as of late, but teams this good generally don?t lose too many in a row. All four teams in this weekend?s marquee matchups love grinding out their wins (all but the Steelers with north-south rushing, the Steelers with their defense), and all have very good cases for winning their games.
Steelers @ Titans
These two teams have a lot in common, taking their pride from their defenses and being virtually one-dimensional on offense, relying on their quarterbacks? skills for the other half. The Steelers and the Titans are the only two teams in the NFL to have not allowed 200 points yet this season (192 and 197 respectively), and the Ravens team that the Steelers just beat is third at 213. There really shouldn?t be very many points scored in this game.
The Titans are impressive running the ball, with Chris Johnson (1159 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, 8 touchdowns) standing out amongst this current rookie class and LenDale White crashing through opposing defensive lines for 14 rushing touchdowns in as many games on only 178 attempts. The Steelers are looking great in the air, with Hines Ward quickly amassing team records and Santonio Holmes being a consistent long-ball threat (this season?s 14.8 yards per catch is his worst so far, but is still good).
Conversely, the Titans? passing game is reliant upon Kerry Collins? ancient but steady arm and none of their receivers has caught 40 or more passes yet this season. By comparison, both Ward and Holmes have surpassed that mark. All the Titans need from their passing game is to stretch the defense so that Johnson and White have more room in which to run. The Steelers allow a league-low 163.3 pass yards per game, though, so the Titans could end up playing the game reversed: if they don?t establish their passing game early, they?ll face a defense allowing 75.8 rushing yards per game, second best in the NFL, and that defense will be packed on the line of scrimmage. Pittsburgh?s James Farrior, that defense?s veteran leader, is ninth in the league in tackles (112), and is one of the best at getting to running backs or preventing opposing quarterbacks from moving the chains in short-yardage situations. Neither he nor the Steelers? secondary is going to let Collins have anything.
I never thought I?d say that the Steelers can?t run the ball, but it?s looking that way. Willie Parker broke out after the post-Superbowl retirement of Jerome Bettis, but has only appeared in nine games this season and has only four touchdowns. The team is 23rd in the league in rushing yardage, which won?t be effective against a defense that?s 9th best at stopping the run. If the Steelers generate points through rushing, it may well be from a Ben Roethlisberger goal-line sneak. That doesn?t bode well for the Steelers, who have been trying to protect him after his shoulder troubles (last week?s game was the first time I?ve ever seen him slide). The Titans? run defense should be relishing this opportunity, as that?s its main starting point for stopping the Steelers. Even if the Titans only score 13 points (the Steelers? defensive average), simple arithmetic dictates that they?ll win if they can hold Pittsburgh to less than that. That?s the attitude that both teams will bring to this game: it?s not about scoring more than the opponent, it?s about making him score less than you.
The Steelers defense is bruised but not battered. Four starters (Ryan Clark, Troy Polamalu, LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison) are facing minor aches but participated in practice and should be fine. By contrast, Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch are both out, leaving the Titans without half of their starting defensive line. Not only that, but it?s the half that?s on Roethlisberger?s blind side, so if the Titans? subs can?t produce, Roethlisberger will have considerably more time to throw than he would have otherwise. Give this one to the Steelers, but don?t expect a blowout, or for Pittsburgh to score enough points for there to be a blowout. I?m not one to arbitrarily pick a score, but it shouldn?t be too far off last week?s 13-9 victory over Baltimore.
Panthers @ Giants
If there?s a game that?s more interesting than the Steelers/Titans showdown, this is it. It?ll be on prime time, (inter)nationally televised, with home-field advantage more decisively on the line. The Panthers have been underrated for much of the season, the ESPN NFL Countdown crew not even considering them the best in their division when they were 8-2. They?ve had some inexcusable hiccups on the road, but two of their three losses (Atlanta, Tampa Bay) have come in warm-weather climates and the other (Minnesota) was in a dome, so it?s yet to be seen how Carolina will react to the cold. The Giants were everyone?s Superbowl darling at 11-1, but the Eagles and Cowboys proved that the Giants won?t necessarily score that many points in every single game. The Giants have averaged the NFL?s fourth-best scoring average at 26.7 points per game but have only averaged 11 in their last two. Both defenses are good overall, the Giants allowing the fourth fewest in the league at 246 (first in the NFC) and the Panthers not far behind with the sixth fewest in the league ay 264 (third in the NFC).
If anything, the cold helps the Panthers, not the Giants. Put aside home and road records for a moment, because NFC South teams always defend their houses (they?ve only lost twice at home this season), and what you have is a long-standing tradition of adverse weather benefiting the run. Cris Collinsworth mentioned aptly last weekend that it?s easier to act than to react in bad conditions, meaning that the offensive player will be able to make a move without the defender making an immediate counter. The combination of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart has been devastating this season; their 23 touchdowns (14 for Williams, nine for Stewart) are one more than the Titans? main two backs. Williams has especially shone where it counts, going for four one-yard touchdown runs against Green Bay, with Jake Delhomme adding another. Look for him to break plenty of tackles on what should be a swampy, snowy field.
It?s a shame Brandon Jacobs isn?t at full health, because he would?ve loved the weather just as much. He put up only 52 yards against the Eagles (on 10 carries, but his 23-yard run was his only memorable one of the game) and didn?t play against Dallas. Eli Manning is an intelligent quarterback worthy of being a Superbowl champion, but Jacobs is the engine of that offense. That?s had to change; Manning?s having a stellar season, completing over 60% of his passes and throwing 20 touchdowns to only ten interceptions, and he will have to sustain that effort against Carolina. The Panthers are far better at defending the run than the pass, as they demonstrated so vividly against Tampa, which makes Manning?s arm the key to victory for New York.
Each offense is relatively balanced, which means that picking apart defenses will be crucial. If Carolina can get Williams and Stewart going early, they can wear down New York?s front four, and a tired Justin Tuck is exactly what the Panthers need to get Delhomme some breathing room in the pocket. If Manning can complete some deep passes like Jeff Garcia did in the Tampa game (he threw for 321 yards, including three times when he took advantage of blown coverage), that could make the Panthers scared to play run control. Any team that uses its strength to facilitate its slightly less strong attack will have more luck scoring points: if both do, this will be a shootout; if one does, this will be a blowout; if neither does, look for a score similar to the Steelers/Titans game. This one should be a narrow Panther victory, but in that way that makes it a pick ?em instead of a three-point advantage to the Giants. |
