| Jeff Risdon. 4th September, 2008 - 2:55 pm
 Last Season: 8-8, 4th in NFC East, +36 point differential, -8 turnover ratio
Additions: CB Asante Samuel, RB Lorenzo Booker, DE Chris Clemons, TE Kris Wilson, LB Rocky Boiman
Subtractions: LB Takeo Spikes, CB Will James, DE Javon Kearse, FB Thomas Tapeh, DT Kimo von Oelhoffen
Rookies of Note: KR/WR Desean Jackson, G Mike McGlynn, DT Trevor Laws
What I like
Offense: Brian Westbrook is one of the most lethal weapons in the NFL, a RB who is a major threat as a receiver but who can also put his head down and pick up tough yards inside. Last season Westbrook led the league in yards from scrimmage, and the team lines him up all over the formation to keep defenses off-balance. Adding Lorenzo Booker, another back with great receiving skills and versatility, affords Offensive Coordinator Marty Morninwheg even more flexibility and creativity. Correll Buckhalter is an excellent reserve back when he can stay healthy, which is not often. To help in that regard, the team traded for Lorenzo Booker, a young back with a similar skill set to Westbrook. That’s not saying he’s anywhere near Westbrook’s level; it means he plays with a similar style and size.
Those backs get to run behind one of the better offensive lines in the league. LT William “Tra” Thomas and RT John Runyan are getting up there in age, but both remain very effective stalwarts and are one of the best tackle tandems in the league. G Shawn Andrews is perhaps the best run blocker at his position in the entire league, a massive mauler who keeps improving his agility. C Jamaal Jackson took a big leap forward last year and is above average at his position. The Eagles have very good depth up front with guys like strongman Max Jean-Gilles (or Todd Herremans if Jean-Gilles beats him out) and rookie Mike McGlynn.
The key to the offense is QB Donovan McNabb, and if his performance at the end of last season and this preseason is any indication, the offense is in great hands. McNabb struggled some in 2007 while recovering from knee surgery, but his knee looks great and his energy level has never been higher. Expect a return not just to his Pro Bowl form, but a more consistently focused and mature McNabb. His favorite target, TE LJ Smith, was also hobbled in 2007 and is primed for a comeback season of his own.
Yet another Eagles player who should bounce back from a down 2007 is K David Akers. Normally one of the more reliable kickers, Akers struggled with kicks over 38 yards. He has proven to be clutch for years, and his misses were not from a lack of leg strength. If he converts 50% of the kicks he missed last year, the Eagles will be fine at kicker.
Defense: The inventive pressure scheme of Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson creates favorable matchups for the athletic defenders to make plays. This Eagles unit has the talented athletes to make it work, led by safety Brian Dawkins. The veteran is on the downside of his career, but Dawkins remains a true difference maker. He is coming back from an injury-marred 2007 and should rebound to Pro Bowl status. The Eagles made a huge splash in the secondary by signing top free agent Asante Samuel from the Patriots. Though he’s been dinged up this summer, Samuel is exactly what the doctor ordered for a defense that struggled to force turnovers. Samuel leads the league in passes defensed over the last three seasons, and he’s picked off 19 INTs. He’s not the shutdown corner some commentators make him out to be (I’m looking at you Ron Jaworski!), but Samuel is generally reliable and reads routes well. Paired with Sheldon Brown, the Eagles have a very good starting CB pair that can handle a variety of styles. Brown does everything well except catch the ball. The 3rd CB is Lito Sheppard, who remains an Eagle despite all sorts of trade talks. Sheppard is probably the most naturally gifted cover man on the team but doesn’t always play to his potential. If his head is right, the Eagles have perhaps the best 1-3 CB talent in the league. Considering the Eagles essentially swapped in Pro Bowler Samuel for the terrible William James, and a healthy return from Dawkins, the secondary is going to be vastly improved. Expect a huge jump in INT from the 9 the DBs picked off last season, worst in the league.
Philly also has a talented front that attacks QBs from all over the field. DE Trent Cole put up 12.5 sacks even though he’s probably better against the run than as a pass rusher. With Juqua Parker (formerly Thomas) and Victor Abiamiri both possessing decent skill on the other side, the DE position is in good shape and should get better as Abiamiri matures. That’s not even considering newcomer Chris Clemons, who will only play on passing downs. Clemons brings great speed and has the ability to line up anywhere in the front 7 except DT and MLB to bring the heat. He’s a perfect weapon for Jim Johnson’s defense. Improving Brodrick Bunkley and lunchpail Mike Patterson are a decent starting DT duo, with Bunkley nicely overcoming a brutal rookie season. Rookie Trevor Laws adds to the rotation and has more potential as a pass rush threat up the gut than either starter.
The Eagles finished dead last in forced turnovers in 2007, taking the ball away just 19 times. That’s not necessarily a sign of impending doom, however. The 3 worst teams at forcing turnovers in the 2006 season were Washington, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. The Skins actually doubled their 2006 total of 12 last season, while the Bucs rocketed up to 3rd in the league, improving from 20 to 35 takeaways. The Saints were the poster boys for secondary ineptitude in 2007, yet they still jumped from 19 to 23 takeaways. With all the talent the Eagles have on defense, there is no reason to think that Philly won’t improve to at least the league average of 29. That alone counts for an extra win or two. Or three.
What I dislike
Offense: I can almost directly copy this part from the last two seasons, really most of the last decade. The wide receiver position in Philly has long been a sore spot on an otherwise strong team, and 2008 will almost certainly continue that trend. I’m actually higher than a lot of people on both Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis, the two starters, but Curtis is probably out for at least half the season with a sports hernia and Brown will likely miss at least the first couple of games with a gimpy hamstring. Neither guy is a legit #1 WR, but both perform at a level of a capable #2 wideout when healthy. In their stead, Hank Baskett and Greg Lewis will start, with diminutive rookie Desean Jackson getting lots of action as well. Though Jackson has electrifying quickness and has impressed this preseason, he’s yet to prove anything, and his size renders him a durability risk. Baskett and Lewis belong on the bench, not on the field, though Baskett is an outstanding downfield blocker. If the Eagles want to do more than just make the playoffs, Reggie Brown has to come back and quickly round into 65-catch, 850 yard form. Because Westbrook is such a weapon out of the backfield and the team has LJ Smith and up-and-comer Brent Celek at TE, they don’t need their wide receivers to be great. But they do need them to be consistent and capable of making a great play or two per game, and that’s an open argument with this group, particularly if Curtis misses the season.
Defense: The biggest question surrounds the young linebackers. Chris Gocong, Stewart Bradley, and Omar Gaither will be the starters, with a combined 5 years of NFL experience among them. All three are physical and quick for their size, with good athleticism and football smarts. But with their precociousness comes growing pains, and Bradley has just one career start. The intricacies of the NFL game, things like shedding blockers, coverage in space, and (in Gocong’s case especially) not getting caught out of position, are still skills this group has yet to master. The raw talent is there, but how quickly it develops and gels together remains to be seen. Other than special teams ace Rocky Boiman, there is zero proven depth at the position.
Those special teams are also a thorny issue. Punter Sav Rocca has perhaps the strongest leg in the league, but it only shows up about every 4th punt and his accuracy needs work. The coverage units figure to get better with imports like Boiman, Clemons, and Kris Wilson, but when you rank in the bottom 10 in both punt and kick coverage, you need all the help you can get. Desean Jackson figures to upgrade the return units, but the team might have to scale that plan back if they wind up heavily relying on him to play WR.
Best Case: This team can win the Super Bowl if the following happen: McNabb gets back to legit Pro Bowl form, Westbrook remains awesome, the turnover ratio flips from -8 to +8 or better, the OL stays strong and healthy, David Akers regains his long range, the run defense tightens a little. All of those are very realistic, and so are the Eagles’ Super Bowl aspirations. Winning the NFC East and finishing better than 4-2 inside that tough division would be a good stepping stone.
Worst Case: The relatively poor 2007 performances by McNabb, Dawkins, Sheppard, Smith, and Akers weren’t just down years but a sign of worse things to come; the offensive line issues (age of the tackles, Andrews’ mental state) develop into a bigger problem; Westbrook can’t stay healthy for 16 games; the WR remains an injury-plagued weak spot; the young LBs aren’t able to hold their own in a division chock full of talented offenses. This team caught few favorable bounces of the ball in 2007, and it must overcome the negativity that goes along with that.
Bellwether Games: Weeks 8-10 immediately follow the Eagles bye week, and bring ATL, @SEA, and NYG on the schedule. You might think the lowly Falcons should make an easy win, but the Eagles have consistently struggled coming off bye weeks against inferior opponents. The trip to Seattle is always a toughie, and this time it could very well be for home field advantage in a future playoff meeting. The Giants are the defending Super Bowl champs, and it’s a prime-time game in November, which is when New York typically turns it up a notch. The Eagles need to win at least 2 of these three games if they want to play in January.
Prediction: Look at why 2007 was so disappointing for the Eagles: McNabb’s recovery, Coach Reid’s personal issues off the field, injuries to Dawkins and Smith, a tough schedule, Akers’ slump, and an inability to create turnovers. All of that, and they were still one David Akers FG bouncing off the upright against the Giants from being in the playoffs and keeping the eventual Super Bowl champs at home for a long cold winter. Other than another rough looking schedule, all the other issues should be resolved to some extent. I believe this team is poised for a big rebound season, led by MVP candidate McNabb and a more opportunistic defense. The Philadelphia Eagles will win the NFC East with a 12-4 record and at least one playoff victory.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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