| Jeff Risdon. 2nd September, 2008 - 4:41 pm
 Last Season: 7-9, 2nd in AFC East, -102 point differential, +9 turnover ratio
Additions: DT Marcus Stroud, LB Kawika Mitchell, DT Spencer Johnson
Subtractions: DT Larry Triplett, S Jim Leonhard, CB Jerametrius Butler, RB Anthony Thomas, CB Kiwaukee Thomas, TE Michael Gaines, LB Mario Haggan, WR Peerless Price, DB Coy Wire
Rookies of Note: WR James Hardy, CB Leodis McKelvin, CB Reggie Corner
What I like
Offense: The Bills found themselves a very good starting RB in Marshawn Lynch, who proved tough and elusive during his rookie season. Lynch grinds for yards and has a great knack for falling forward even though he does have an explosive burst off the cut. New Offensive Coordinator Turk Schonert likes to incorporate a blocking fullback, so that should help Lynch get more opportunities to use his cut-and-go style.
With the drafting of James Hardy, the Bills have a nice package of wideouts that fill all the roles the team needs. Hardy is the tall (6’6”) red zone target the Bills sorely needed, and he should help on 3rd downs and scrambles, as well. Lee Evans sure hopes so, because opposing defenses blanketed the #1 WR and his numbers plummeted. Evans flies under the radar playing in Buffalo with mediocre QB play, but he is a legit star in waiting who can get deep as well as make tough catches across the middle. Shifty Roscoe Parrish is a real threat in the slot, darting underneath zones and showing the ability to turn the 5-yard cross into a 30 yard gain. Josh Reed makes a nice possession-type receiver, and he transitions from receiver to runner quickly.
The offensive line greatly improved in 2007, and it should be solid once again. Getting superb LT Jason Peters back in the fold would bring back the entire OL intact. Even without Peters (a more likely scenario with each passing day), the line should be okay. The G-C-G package of Dockery-Fowler-Butler is strong, with Melvin Fowler quietly improving into an upper-tier center. Langston Walker was money well spent in the summer of 07. Peters is far and away the stud of the line, a massive mauler who shows surprising agility in pass blocking. With him, this is the best line in the AFC East; without him it’s not a bad line, but not one that will sniff the playoffs.
Defense: Here is where all those injuries from 2007 should lead to major improvement in 2008. Getting MLB Paul Posluszny back from a broken arm brings instant punch and more teeth to the middle of the defense. Adding Kawika Mitchell from the Giants on the weak side brings speed and experience to that spot. SAM Angelo Crowell flourished as the only healthy OLB, racking up 126 tackles and playing more physically than expected. The Bills also found out backups Keith Ellison and John DiGiorgio can be relied upon for more than just occupying space.
Trading for Marcus Stroud up front is a real gamble, but if the Stroud they are getting is anywhere close to the one pre-2006, the Bills have made a major upgrade in the middle of the line. His bulk and ability to get off double teams and still make tackles are something the Bills have sorely lacked at DT. That should help ends Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel face fewer double teams and bring more consistent pressure on opposing QBs. Kelsay is coming back off a bad ankle injury that severely limited his burst in 2007, and he looks like his old self once again this summer. Schobel is a Pro Bowl talent and solid all-around end who was continually chipped by TEs and backs last season on the pass rush. He holds the edge very well against the run. Getting Ryan Denney back at full strength provides nice depth at DE, as rookie Chris Ellis should factor in as a situational rusher. Kyle Williams brings energy and a knack for being the second guy in on a tackle to the other DT spot. Former 1st rounder John McCargo is a better pass rusher and upfield threat and will see lots of action. The Bills quietly stole quality reserve Spencer Johnson from the Vikings, giving them plenty of quality depth across the defensive front.
Two drafts ago the Bills spent picks on safeties Ko Simpson and Donte Whitner, and that move should finally pay off. Whitner has developed into a Pro Bowl caliber player, showing good range, tackling technique, and solid ball skills. Simpson missed all but one game in 2007 but played quite well at times as a rookie in 2006. He is a big-time hitter who fares well in man coverage, though he needs to improve his “safety help” responsibilities in coverage. CB Terrence McGee is a capable #2 corner, and the Bills wisely spent their 1st round pick on a guy who should quickly develop into the #1 CB role, Leodis McKelvin. Jabari Greer holds the fort while McKelvin learns on the fly, and Greer did a great job using his recovery speed to break up passes in 2007. One of the stars of camp was safety John Wendling, a freakish athlete who spent most of 2007 excelling on special teams. The coaches are confident he can contribute when called upon in the base defense.
Punter Brian Moorman has a cult-like following, thanks to his booming leg. He had a bit of a down year in 2007, but still rated high among causing fair catches and punts downed inside the 10 yard line. Rian Lindell is a strong-legged kicker who has missed just 5 kicks in the least two seasons.
What I dislike
Offense: The ongoing holdout and contract stalemate by Peters threatens to scuttle any progress this offense hopes to make. At this point it appears neither side is going to blink, and that means the Bills will be without their best lineman and perhaps most talented overall player. Buffalo set all sorts of franchise benchmarks for offensive futility in 2007 (fewest TDs, passing yards, worst red zone TD%) and removing Peters from the lineup isn’t going to help. Langston Walker did a fine job at RT last year, but he moves to the left side where he was consistently dreadful in Oakland. Raw Kirk Chambers takes over at RT, and the primary backup is 7th round rookie Demetrius Bell, who makes the inexperienced Chambers look like a 10-year vet. The depth on the interior is strong, so there is some potential to reshuffle if necessary.
Adding James Hardy should help the red zone woes but don’t expect the Bills to make a huge jump in the rankings there. They lack a short-yardage back, though rookie Xavier Omon might fill that role, and they don’t have a change-of-pace back who can threaten defenses as a receiver. Lynch has nice hands but the Bills rarely used him in that capacity. Both Evans and Reed struggle to get open on the shrunken field, because the threat of getting beat deep is eliminated. JP Losman provided some threat to run from the QB position, but he starts 2008 on the bench.
The decision to stick with Trent Edwards at QB is an iffy one. Aside from one nice outing against a horrid Miami defense, Edwards did very little to move the ball, and the threat of the deep pass completely went away. You might be surprised to learn that deposed starter Losman was much more accurate (63% to 56%) and notched a better yards per attempt figure than Edwards. The final 4 games aren’t pretty: 49-112, 583 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs. Consider that 4 of those TD passes came against MIA and that he was sacked just 3 times in those four games (all in one half against the Giants); rookie or not, those are simply unacceptable numbers for an NFL QB. It can’t be encouraging that Edwards got worse the more he played. Watching Edwards reminded me of watching Joey Harrington, only without Joey’s arm strength. Surely Head Coach Dick Jauron has seen this movie before--he coached Harrington in Detroit and lived to tell about it. Losman is certainly more prone to err and throw the terrible INT, and he’s not above questioning authority, but he offers the threat of hitting Evans downfield for the big play. That opens up the underneath for Roscoe Parrish, who often looked like a Porsche in a school zone while defenses crowded the shorter routes with Edwards at the controls. The more conservative style suits a team with a strong TE, but Robert Royal has just 48 catches the last two years and there is nothing behind him with Derek Schouman banged up. Perhaps Edwards will make a leap forward and prove me wrong, but with no Peters and learning a new offense, I wouldn’t get too confident. Look up at the point differential and turnover ratio stats; to finish with that awful a point ratio with such a fine turnover margin screams that the offense simply isn’t up to snuff. Other than adding one WR and subtracting the best lineman, this is the same group that floundered last season. I just don’t see much margin for error or improvement
Defense: With everyone healthy and together for the first time, the biggest questions regard continuity, communication, and consistency. Much hinges on Marcus Stroud in the middle. The Jaguars gave up on him for a reason, and they finished with a much stronger D than Buffalo. He has impressed so far, but he has much to prove after posting very pedestrian numbers with questionable effort and attitude the last two seasons. The ends have a lot of ability, but both Schobel and Kelsay need to show they can round back into sack-artist form.
The secondary reminds me of Cleveland’s secondary last season--lots of talented young players that had far too many communication and coverage breakdowns while learning how to play together. That McKelvin apparently won’t start any higher than nickel back is not a good sign, because the team was more than ready to give up on embattled Ashton Youboty in that role. I like the players they have and in theory they should constitute a pretty decent backfield, but they must come together and prove it. I thought the same about the Browns before last season and they proved largely incapable. Having a better pass rush should help quell the opportunities to exploit breakdowns in coverage.
Best Case: The positive momentum surrounding the team carries into the new season; Edwards steps up his game and the new-look offense produces more big plays and a much better red zone TD ratio; all the newly-healthy bodies on D congeal into a formidable unit; the special teams maintain strong all-around play despite losing a few stalwarts. There is lots of talk about Wild Card potential, and if Edwards steps up and the team stays relatively healthy they will be in the mix with 8-10 wins. They need to sweep both the improving Jets and Dolphins to have any shot at that.
Worst Case: The injuries carry over, not just physically but in terms of execution and preparedness; Edwards flops, as does Stroud; the ongoing Peters' saga deflates the team; the turnover margin declines from +9. If they don’t improve offensively in the red zone and on 3rd down, even an improved defense will have trouble matching 7 wins.
Bellwether Games: The Bills drew one of the easier overall schedules based on 2007 results, but it starts with two stern challenges, hosting Seattle and then traveling to Jacksonville. If the Bills can’t win either one of those games, it sends a message that the talk of improvement and Wild Card is premature. Win both and Buffalo has a good shot at double digit wins and controlling their own playoff fate headed into the brutal schedule finale, @DEN and NE.
Prediction: With all the returning injured players and solid line play on both sides of the ball, the Bills are good enough to hang in the playoff race. But with the gray area surrounding Jason Peters and Trent Edwards, they probably don’t have enough difference-makers in the right spots to make those playoff seeds germinate this year. Not having 4 gimmie wins against division rivals New York and Miami makes it that much harder. Buffalo notches a 3rd straight 7-9 season.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
