| Jeff Risdon. 2nd September, 2008 - 4:14 pm
 Last Season: 3-13, 4th in NFC West, -175 point differential, -10 turnover ratio
Additions: K Josh Brown, G Jacob Bell, QB Trent Green, TE Anthony Becht, CB David Macklin
Subtractions: TE Domonique Byrd, K Jeff Wilkins, G Milford Brown, WR Isaac Bruce, LB Brandon Chillar, QB Gus Frerotte
Rookies of Note: DE Chris Long, WR Donnie Avery, WR Keenan Burton, G Roy Schuening
What I like
Offense: It really can’t get any worse than 2007, when the Rams used 13 different linemen and saw injuries cripple the skill position players as well. The healthy return of three players is key: LT Orlando Pace, RB Steven Jackson, and QB Marc Bulger, who didn’t miss a lot of time but was clearly less than 100% physically. Pace is a future Hall Of Famer who is the foundation up front for what the Rams want to do offensively. He’s equally skilled as a pass protector and a mauling run blocker, and he’s got fresh legs for a 32-year old. If his arm injuries are healed, Pace will provide a major boost to the offense. The prime beneficiary will be Jackson, who elevated his game in 2006 only to post pedestrian numbers in 2007 thanks to injuries and the decimated OL. Jackson runs with a great blend of speed and power, and he is an excellent receiver to boot. He did hold out for almost all of camp, but that can be seen as a blessing; his body is fresh, and he already knows the offense. Poaching underrated LG Jacob Bell from the Titans helps shore up that side of the line. Bell is a very good run blocker with good blitz recognition, and the coaches love his lunchpail mentality and quiet professionalism. That makes him the antithesis of RG Richie Incognito, who treats the NFL like the WWE but is among the better run blockers in the league when he’s healthy and not committing stupid penalties. Adding TE Anthony Becht is an underappreciated move, as he is one of the better blocking tight ends in the league. Severing ties with immature Domonique Byrd is an excellent example of addition by subtraction.
Torry Holt remains an elite WR. In fact, Holt is the most prolific receiver over the last decade and does it with remarkable consistency. There might not be a better route runner in the history of the game. He’s 32, his knees are a little wonky and doesn’t have a proven #2 or #3 to ease the pressure, so he probably won’t put up the numbers we’ve come to expect, but make no mistake--Torry Holt is still a legit #1 WR. Drew Bennett fills the #2 role and has the potential to be a good one, but he has a lot to prove after an injury-marred 2007 where his effort and dedication were (rightfully) questioned. Rookies Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton could develop into a real nice tandem down the road, perhaps sooner than later. Avery was the fastest WR in the draft and is a legit big-play threat, but the bigger Burton will see more action early on. The Kentucky product might push Bennett to the bench thanks to his rock-solid summer, including some very impressive run blocking.
All those 2007 injuries do have a silver lining--the Rams have loads of game-tested depth across the board. Not all of it is really good, but the team is stocked at RB behind Jackson with Michael Pittman and Brian Leonard. Adam Goldberg and Brett Romberg are adequate backups along the OL, and rookies Roy Schuening and John Greco both represent more athletic, tenacious energy than the detritus they replaced. I wish backup QB Trent Green would regain his senses and retire, but that’s what happens with one too many blows to the head. He could provide a spark in relief if needed though.
Signing K Josh Brown from the rival Seahawks is a real strong move. Brown is one of the more reliable kickers in the game and has good leg strength. Once he adjusts to kicking in the Edward Jones Dome, he should challenge for the Pro Bowl. Punter Donnie Jones is a good one although he needs improvement on coffin corner kicks. Venerable Dante Hall remains a threat at KR, and rookie Avery was an outstanding punt return man in college if Hall starts to slip.
Defense: Long a sore point, the defensive line finally has legit potential to move into the upper echelon. Adam Carriker was a revelation as a rookie in 2007, sliding inside and showing he will be a force for years. Fellow rookie Clifton Ryan proved to be a very stout run stuffer, and when he leaves the field on passing downs, veteran LaRoi Glover showed he can still get effective pressure on the QB. Adding #2 overall pick Chris Long brings an infusion of youth and run reliability to the edge, though he will start the season as the #3 DE behind vets Leonard Little and James Hall. Little is coming back from a toe injury that severely limited his trademark explosiveness, and he’s looked quite good this summer. Hall has also turned heads this offseason after a sluggish 2007. Both Little and Hall are on the wrong side of 30 and have legit questions, but they seem to have responded to the challenge from Long exactly the way the team hoped, by elevating their games. Victor Adeyanju can play anywhere on the line and is a solid, experienced veteran.
MLB Will Witherspoon led the Rams in both tackles and sacks in 2007. That’s both a freakish accomplishment and a sign of just how bad the rest of the pass rush was last season. The Rams are hopeful Pisa Tinoisamoa can bounce back at WLB. He’s very solid in pass coverage and does a nice job stringing out run plays. Veteran Chris Draft is an ideal utility LB who can capably fill in at all 3 (or 4, if the Rams follow thru on DC Jim Haslett’s threat to mix up schemes) LB spots. S OJ Atogwe emerged as a playmaker, picking off 8 passes and showing good range in coverage. Starting CBs Fakhir Brown and Tye Hill both played well at times, but maintaining that high level is an uphill climb.
What I dislike
Offense: It’s not fair to peg all the offensive woes on the injuries. They were certainly a factor, but RT Alex Barron was healthy all season and was often brutal. Mr. False Start is an adequate run blocker but rates among the worst pass protecting RTs in the league and is keenly aware of his inadequacies, as are opposing defensive ends. TE Randy McMichael was a disappointment, failing to get open consistently and blocking apathetically at times. Bulger had accuracy issues, showing a lack of synchronicity with everyone but Holt. Even Holt showed signs of decline, choosing to run out of bounds instead of fighting for yards more often than in the past. Having a healthy OL and a healthier Jackson will certainly help, but this is no longer an offense that can consistently put up 30+ points and overcome a leaky defense.
Defense: The pass defense remains an ongoing malady for the Rams. CBs Brown and Hill have the physical tools to handle the job, but neither plays with any modicum of consistency. Communication in the secondary is often nonexistent. The Rams were consistently exploited in the realm where the corners hand off deep coverage to the safeties; Hill often just stopped whether the safety was in position or not. Part of that problem is that SS Corey Chavous is almost exclusively an in-the-box run defender at this stage of his career. Part of the problem is the lousy play of the nickel and dime CBs, though Ron Bartell did steadily improve as the year wore on. The ineffective pass rush was definitely a contributing factor. They have addressed the pass rush adequately, but the secondary remains a pronounced weakness.
As good as the specialists are, the coverage units need significant improvement. One of the more common sights that frustrated Rams' fans (and coaches) in 2007 was Donnie Jones uncorking a great punt, only to have the return man get 8 yards of open field because the gunners were either on the ground or overran their responsibility.
Best Case: The medical staff gets a breather; the OL develops any sort of consistency and stability; Jackson gets back into the top 5 in total yards; Bulger gets chemistry with Bennett and the rookie wideouts; and McMichael develops into a contributor; the young guys on the defensive front continue to develop into a force for years to come, and Little, Hall, and Glover all have something left in the tank. The attitude of the team is vital in overcoming a disastrous 2007.
Worst Case: See 2007, with an overhaul of the coaching staff and the end of the STL line for Holt next offseason.
Bellwether Games: After what appears to be a very rough start to the schedule, the Rams get a real nice chance to rack up some wins in Weeks 9 thru 13. Starting in Week 9, the schedule: ARI, @NYJ, @SF, CHI, MIA. If this team is healthy, there is no reason they can’t win 4 of those 5 games. Their success in this string will likely determine whether the Rams are drafting in the top 5 once again, or passing the 49ers and Cardinals in the NFC West standings.
Prediction: One of the more puzzling developments this offseason has been how near-universally everyone expects the Bills to rebound from an injury-ravaged 2007 and challenge for the playoffs, yet I’ve not heard one person say the same about the Rams. Would you rather have Bulger/Jackson/Holt/Pace or Edwards/Lynch/Evans/whomever replaces Jason Peters? I don’t expect the Rams to make the playoffs--too many holes in the pass defense and questions with the right side of the OL--but in their weak division it’s certainly not impossible. If opponents take them lightly early on, this Rams team could sneak up on 8 wins. I don’t trust their health enough to be that bold, but I can certainly see 6 or 7 wins in 2008 in St. Louis. Add 6 to however many wins they get in their first 7 games (it could very well be zero), and that’s your win total.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
