| Jeff Risdon. 2nd September, 2008 - 11:13 am
 Last Season: 10-6, 1st in NFC West, lost in Divisional Round, +102 point differential, +10 turnover ratio
Additions: G Mike Wahle, RB Julius Jones, LB D.D. Lewis, TE Jeb Putzier
Subtractions: WR DJ Hackett, K Josh Brown, RB Shaun Alexander, DT Marcus Tubbs, LB Niko Koutouvides, LB Kevin Bentley, DT Chuck Darby, TE Marcus Pollard, DT Ellis Wyms
Rookies of Note: TE John Carlson, DE Lawrence Jackson, DT Red Bryant, RB/RS Justin Forsett
What I like
Offense: The second-most overlooked great offseason move (the first being C Jeff Faine to the Bucs) is the Seahawks bringing in G Mike Wahle from Carolina. Wahle is precisely what the doctor ordered for the Seattle OL, a physical mauler who can get to the second level and find people in space. He’s also an upgrade in pass blocking. With Hall of Famer Walter Jones still doing his thing at tackle, the left side of the line will be real strong. RT Sean Locklear is a very strong pass protector who thrives against those pesky undersized speed rushers, perhaps because he faces one (Darryl Tapp) every day in practice. Bringing in Wahle allows wide load Rob Sims to move back to where he belongs at RG.
QB Matt Hasselbeck continues to efficiently control the Mike Holmgren version of the West Coast offense. He’s among the most accurate throwers in the league, hitting his receivers where they want to have it, when they want it. The improved pass protection last season appears to have quelled his happy feet, and he forced fewer balls across the middle in 2007. Hasselbeck thrives at taking what the defense gives him, often throwing to 4 or 5 different targets on the same drive. His teammates respect his leadership and dedication. Seneca Wallace returns as the backup, and he performed better than expected in limited duty. His mobility is a nice weapon, and Coach Holmgren seems content to leave him at QB instead of trying to turn him into a slash-type tool.
Defense: The Seahawks have perhaps the best LB corps in the league, led by defensive MVP candidate Lofa Tatupu in the middle. There is not one player in the league who translates what he sees on film in game preparation into effective action on the field better than Tatupu. The only real hole in his game is finishing off blitzes into sacks, but his SAM partner Julian Peterson more than makes up for that. Peterson is the best pass-rushing 4-3 OLB in the league, but what makes him special is that he doesn’t get caught upfield against the run or screens very often. Those two are great, but one opposing lineman told me that the best LB on the Seahawks is Leroy Hill on the weak side. Hill is an outstanding run stuffer who uses textbook tackling technique paired with violent force. He showed better ability at dropping into coverage in 07, and he’s also real good on the delay blitz. Hill is in a contract year, so expect greatness followed by either a fat extension or the franchise tag.
Seattle also has a bevy of pass rushers up front. Bringing in Patrick Kerney was a stroke of genius that paid off with 14.5 sacks (3rd in the league) and 3 hurries that resulted in INTs. On the other side is Darryl Tapp, a favorite of mine since I watched him chase down Vernon Davis in a VT/Maryland game a few years back. His speed around the edge is great, but he’s not afraid to use some inside moves despite being on the small side. Rookie 1st rounder Lawrence Jackson might usurp Tapp’s starting position; even if he doesn’t, he will see lots of action at end and will play inside during the nickel packages. DT Rocky Bernard gets a decent push up the gut, and he’s also playing for his next contract. Suffice to say getting to the QB is not a problem for the Seattle Seahawks. And with DT Brandon Mebane showing an excellent ability to stuff the run in his rookie year, it’s not real easy to move the ball on the ground either.
That pressure up front helps out a secondary that has some talent but doesn’t always play to its potential. CB Marcus Trufant had a renaissance season in 2007, more than living up to his 1st round draft status and lucrative extension. Trufant allowed just two completions longer than 25 yards all season; by way of comparison, Asante Samuel allowed 5 and Terrence Newman allowed 7. All three recently signed new deals, and Trufant came the cheapest by a wide margin. Kelly Jennings starts on the other side and he’s very good in run support, though his coverage ebbs and wanes. Deon Grant and Brian Russell are a solid, savvy paring at safety, though CJ Wallace will see more action at Russell’s expense in 2008. Josh Wilson is as close to a shutdown nickel back as there is in the league; he and Carolina’s Richard Marshall are the NFC’s best at that role. In a division with turnover-prone opposing QBs, this Seattle secondary will get lots of opportunities to make plays, and they have a nice selection of playmakers to take advantage.
What I dislike
Offense: If it’s fall in Seattle, chances are you can find a nice collection of banged up wide receivers. The two projected starters, Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, will both be out until at least October, perhaps much longer in Branch’s case. That leaves Nate Burleson and Courtney Taylor as the starters, and that is a huge step down. Taylor has great measurables and nice hands, but he’s got all of 5 NFL receptions and injury issues of his own (he missed minicamp). Burleson shined late in 2007 and has performed well as a starter in the past, but he’s best suited as a complementary wideout. The #3 guy to start the year is Ben Obomanu, Taylor’s college teammate at Auburn who doesn’t have Taylor’s hands or route running acumen. Jordan Kent is big and fast, but as this point he’s a track star masquerading as a wide receiver, not a football player. Engram can’t come back fast enough, and that’s a scary proposition when you consider he’s 35 and is best known for catching 3rd down passes that get exactly one yard more than needed. Holmgren’s offense can handle not having a real #1 WR and spreading the ball to lots of different targets, but this group will really test that stratagem. The top TE is rookie John Carlson, a guy I favorably scouted but can plod into his routes at times and doesn’t offer much YAC ability.
The team signed Julius Jones to be their feature back, but the RB position is very unsettled. GM Tim Ruskell inexplicably also signed power back TJ Duckett to handle short yardage, but he might not even make the team in favor of rookie FB Owen Schmitt, who will likely never touch the ball. Jones couldn’t win the job from holdover backup Mo Morris, which means he jumped from one shared backfield to another. The difference here is that both Jones and Morris are very similar stylistically--shifty darters, good receivers, don’t always run north-south, not likely to break many tackles between the tackles. The receiving skills come in handy in this offense, but the team doesn’t have any back who can reliably convert a 3rd and 3 or less against an 8-man front. Rookie Justin Forsett is more of the same, if he sticks as more than a kick returner. It’s not that departed Shaun Alexander (still unsigned, letting you know all you need about his decline) could do any better, but most teams try to have a change of pace amongst their backs.
Defense: The starting 11 is in fine hands, but the Seahawks have some major depth issues. The top backup LB is D.D. Lewis, who hasn’t played in 2 years and wasn’t much of a player back then. Lance Laury is strictly a special teams contributor. Rookie Red Bryant impressed at DT early on, but he’s coming off knee surgery, the thing that drove Marcus Tubbs from the team. After the top 3 ends there is nothing except el busto reclamation project Jason Babin. The starters absolutely have to stay healthy up front or else this defense goes from being one of the best in the league to a major question mark.
The safety position bears watching. Brian Russell is fine in coverage, but his ability to tackle in the open field is apparently gone. CJ Wallace has 2 career tackles while Jordan Babineaux is one of those CB/S types who isn’t good enough in coverage to play CB but isn’t good enough at run defense to play safety. Both starters have a lot of mileage on their tires, so keeping them fresh is important. Future Seahawks' Head Coach Jim Mora is an outstanding secondary coach and teacher, so that helps mitigate some of my worries. But if I’m an opposing offense, I’m going to try to attack these safeties until they prove they can stop me.
It might seem trivial, but the Seahawks have a Spinal Tap drummer situation at long snapper. They drafted Tyler Schmitt to take over the job that has been held by 4 different guys in the past two seasons, but he’s already out for the year with an injury. The awful performance of the long snappers has hindered punter Ryan Plackemeier, who (rightfully) doesn’t trust the snap and can’t focus as much on the kick itself. They lost one of the best kickers in the league in Josh Brown, replacing him with either rookie Brandon Couto or has-been Olindo Mare. They also parted with their best kick coverage guy in Niko Koutouvides. Here’s betting that issues with the kicking game cost them at least one victory, perhaps more.
Best Case: The team rallies around Coach Holmgren in his final year, sending him out with an NFC West title by a comfortable margin and a legit chance to win the NFC. Having strong play from the secondary and having one of the young wideouts step up would greatly facilitate that, as would solid, stable special teams; the new training facility provides a morale boost and infusion of good health and energy. Twelve wins are not out of the question, and I would never pick against the Seahawks at home in any playoff game.
Worst Case: The RB-by-committee stalls, and the chronic injuries at WR slow down the passing game; the kicking game and long snapping hurt the team in close games; the defense gets too enamored with rushing the passer; and the run defense suffers (see: Chicago 2007)
Bellwether Games: This team has struggled for years on trips to the East Coast, and following their bye in Week 4, they make the cross-country trek twice in three weeks, starting with a trip to the Meadowlands to face the Giants. Then comes a home date with the Packers, followed by a Sunday Night affair in Tampa. That’s 3 2007 playoff teams in 3 weeks, two of them on the road. Say what you will about the questionable fortunes of all 3 opponents, but the Seahawks can go a long way towards asserting their dominance in the NFC by knocking off these contenders. If they can’t win one of those roadies and fall to the Packers in what will likely be an emotionally-charged game, their playoff cred is in shambles. They will very likely be 3-0 entering that stretch, so beating higher-regarded teams is important. The Thanksgiving game at Dallas is a big one too.
Prediction: Seattle is still the class of the NFC West, still the worst of all divisions. I’m buying into the “Send Holmgren out a winner” hype but not with the whole paycheck. If Matt Hasselbeck can overcome more typically erratic WR play and the run defense holds up, Seattle should earn a playoff bye and home field advantage, which in their case is an extreme advantage. I really like the fact that the defense can win games on its own but very rarely is asked to do so. Seattle finishes 11-5, wins the NFC West, and they are my preseason pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
