| Jeff Risdon. 27th August, 2008 - 1:24 pm
 Last Season: 11-5, 2nd in AFC South, Lost in AFC Divisional Round, +107 point differential, +9 turnover ratio
Additions: CB Drayton Florence, WR Jerry Porter, DT Jimmy Kennedy, S Pierson Prioleau, WR Troy Williamson, DE Bo Schobel, QB Cleo Lemon
Subtractions: DT Marcus Stroud, WR Ernest Wilford, CB Terry Cousin, S Sammy Knight, G Chris Naeole, DE Bobby McCray, QB Quinn Gray, CB Aaron Glenn, DT Grady Jackson, RB LaBrandon Toefield
Rookies of Note: DE Quentin Groves, DE Derrick Harvey
What I like
Offense: The Jaguars have a lethal 1-2 rushing punch in Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, and they are not afraid to drain the well in using them to beat other teams into submission. Taylor is 32 and has suffered several well-chronicled injuries, but he’s been healthy the last two seasons and still has his burst and extra gear. He deservedly made his first Pro Bowl last year, and his 5.4 yards per carry was a career high. Jones-Drew packs tremendous power in his compact size and has perhaps the biggest thighs this side of Olympic speedskaters. His lack of height is actually an asset for MJD as defenders never get a clean shot on him; he’s so strong, he can shake off the glancing blows. He also has an extra gear once he hits the second level, which also suits him as a dangerous kick returner. With Greg Jones as the 3rd RB and sometime FB, a guy also capable of grinding out yards and punishing defenders, the Jaguars have better RB depth than any team in the AFC.
QB David Garrard made his head coach a veritable genius. Jack Del Rio took a huge risk in promoting Garrard ahead of longtime starter Byron Leftwich, and the gamble paid off when Garrard finished 3rd in the league in QB rating and made the Pro Bowl. The 30-year old East Carolina product showed great poise and much better accuracy on deeper throws, and he still has some ability to tuck and run. His 18-3 TD/INT ratio was remarkable considering his lack of starting experience and the middling cast of receivers.
All 5 linemen who finished the year as starters return intact, and that mix performed quite well for the Jaguars. RT Tony Pashos was a nice upgrade in run blocking, and he pairs with RG Mo Williams to form an aggressive, solid right side. Williams got over Pashos usurping his tackle spot by playing well when starting G Chris Naeole went down with a torn bicep. LT Khalif Barnes has his ups and downs, but he’s showed he can handle the rigors of the position so long as he’s not blocking Dwight Freeney. He’s in a contract year, so expect a more consistent effort and better run blocking from Barnes. The line does an excellent job of sealing open running lanes and firing out to the second level.
Defense: The biggest asset is the LB corps, which features a group of fast, hard-hitting youngsters surrounding solid vet Mike Peterson. The most heated battle in camp has been the fight between Justin Durant and Clint Ingram for the SAM spot; both are worthy starters near the beginning of what look like long and prosperous careers. The speed of the unit is outstanding, and it’s a group that plays well together. Watch for WLB Daryl Smith to emerge as a playmaking star in 2008, as he has noticeably improved his coverage skills.
Trading stalwart DT Marcus Stroud is a major gamble, but the Jaguars are confident that Rob Meier can step up and capably fill the void. Meier is one of the better run stuffers in the league when he’s been given opportunities, and the team won’t miss the headaches that went along with Stroud’s great talent. A return to form by John Henderson would cure much of what ails the defense. Henderson is a Pro Bowl talent and big-time disruptor on the interior line, and when he struggled last year the entire defense really suffered. Veteran Paul Spicer is a quality all-around end, and he led the team in sacks in 2007. Derek Landri enters his 2nd year with some promise, and he should rotate in on obvious passing downs.
The kicking game is in good shape. Josh Scobee should bounce back from missing half the season with injury, and his deep kickoffs (when they stay inbounds) are a real weapon. Adam Podlesh showed a strong leg and steady improvement during his rookie year, finishing 2007 with two outstanding efforts. Jones-Drew is a dangerous return man on kickoffs, showing his open-field running ability isn’t confined to the offense.
What I dislike
Before I get into the offense/defense, there is a general issue I find with the Jaguars. Just look up at the disparity between the additions and subtractions. Not one of those additions, with the possible exception of Jerry Porter, is as good as the guy they are replacing on the depth chart. While they didn’t lose anyone they really wanted to keep, Jacksonville lost many of their backups and several reliable veterans who filled important roles. The overall loss of depth is staggering and is a gamble that could backfire with disastrous consequences.
Offense: The Jaguars still have yet to recover from WR Jimmy Smith’s retirement before the 2006 season, and they must deal with the loss of their leading receiver from last season now that Ernest Wilford is in Miami. Reggie Williams finally shed the “bust” label and at times looked like the 1st round pick the Jaguars expected, but he must prove he can do it again. It won’t be easy for Williams, who will face more #1 and #2 CBs this year after feasting largely on nickel backs and exploiting the hole in the middle of Cover 2 zones in 2007. The Jaguars brought in Jerry Porter to assume the #1 WR role, a major gamble even moreso considering Porter’s gimpy hamstring. I’ll paraphrase Porter’s former teammate Jerry Rice, who just might know something about WR success, regarding Porter: he has all the tools, but doesn’t know where to look for the key to the toolbox. The same can also be said for 1st round bust Matt Jones, who might not even make the team. His arrest on cocaine possession at least proves Jones can hold something, which is something that cannot be said for 1st round bust Troy Williamson, looking for a fresh start in Jacksonville. The team has high hopes for Mike Walker, but he has more drops than catches in the preseason. I have a great deal of respect for veteran Dennis Northcutt, an undersized possession receiver with enough giddyup to turn those short slants and 10-yard hooks into big gains. But when Dennis Northcutt is the best proven commodity at WR, it’s going to take a lot of luck and major improvement from others to make group even average, let alone an asset. The tight ends aren’t much help, though Marcedes Lewis finally looks like he might be ready to come close to meeting his 1st round draft status. They are greatly helped by an awesome running game and an accurate QB, so there is hope.
Some would argue the cohesion of the OL is not necessarily a good thing. C Brad Meester is out until at least October, and he will be sorely missed because there is absolutely zero depth up front. Khalif Barnes has not had a good offseason; it’s as if he has forgotten how to move his feet. Expect the Jaguars to give Barnes a lot of help with TE George Wrightster, which suits Wrighster fine but limits the downfield options. Gigantic Richard Collier (he’s 6’7”+ and 350+) is pushing Barnes hard for the job, but he’s even less mobile than Barnes.
Defense: The primary concern is in the secondary, more specifically the CB spots behind Rashean Mathis. Former Charger Drayton Florence will likely start at the #2 spot, with undersized vet Scott Starks in the nickel package. Florence is a gamer with nice size, but he’s ideally a nickel back. It will be interesting to see how the Jaguars handle the nickel and dime coverage packages, as former CB Brian Williams moves to safety. He’s a better cover man than Florence, and Reggie Nelson is also significantly better in coverage than he is versus the run at this point. It’s not that I think the Jaguars are in trouble with their secondary, but sorting out the roles and positioning could lead to some communication issues and blown coverages. If safety Gerald Sensabaugh can come back from injury, that would help. At least the secondary is the one spot on the team where the Jaguars have functional depth, with young Chad Nkang looking ready to step up and rookie Trae Williams not looking out of place, though he’s likely headed for the practice squad.
The pass rush has to be a point of emphasis if the Jaguars want to improve. They spent their 1st and 2nd round draft picks on pass rushing ends Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, and right now that’s not looking real positive. Harvey is the last remaining unsigned draft pick, which basically washes out his rookie season. Groves has looked good in practice going against Barnes, Collier, and Pashos, but when facing live competition he’s been thrown around and thoroughly whipped by the likes of Vernon Carey and Tyson Clabo. Mkristo Bruce has outplayed Groves and vet import Bo Schobel in terms of generating pass rush, but he can only play on obvious passing downs and wouldn’t even be on the team if Harvey was around. Veteran Reggie Hayward looks like he won’t ever be the same after his Achilles rupture two years ago. The decision to part with Bobby McCray is looking worse by the day. The Jaguars DBs are generally better ballhawks than they are tough cover men, so the lack of a steady pass rush really inhibits their strengths and exposes their weaknesses.
Best Case: The dominant running game opens things up for the passing offense, and David Garrard merits another Pro Bowl spot; a more varied, more consistent pass rush develops; the youngsters in the defensive back 7 play to their potential and form an elite pass defense unit; the positive buzz from the strong playoff showing carries over. If they can manage to beat the Colts at least once and go 5-1 in the tough (but overrated) AFC South, a return playoff visit is certain. Their style of play makes them a threat to win any and every playoff game.
Worst Case: Garrard proves a one-year wonder, which is not an improbability; Taylor’s good health fortune well runs dry, and MJD can’t handle the load by himself; the WR position remains an anathema; the tougher schedule rises up and the loss of depth puts too much of a burden on the starters too often; the rookie pass rushers flop and John Henderson doesn’t rebound from an off year. Something to keep in mind: the team with the latest 1st round rookie holdout has never made the playoffs.
Bellwether Games: Weeks 3 thru 5 will likely decide the Jaguars playoff fate. Week 3 is a trip to Indy, the target the Jags are shooting for and the site of several agonizing losses. Following that are home dates with division rival Houston and a physical Pittsburgh team with playoff vengeance on its mind. Both Houston and Pittsburgh could be challengers for the Jaguars’ assumed playoff spot, so vanquishing those foes early is critical. All three teams have talented pass rushers and potentially high-powered offenses. If Del Rio’s charges don’t win more than one of those games, they’re going to have to really turn it up to make the playoffs. Win all 3 and they just might win the AFC South and draw a playoff game at home.
Prediction: Jacksonville is a trendy pick as a rising playoff power that could challenge the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers for AFC supremacy. I can see why they’re feeling that love and respect, but I’m just not feeling it myself. There are a lot more questions on this team now than one year ago, and that was when they cut their long-time starting QB. If they all get answered positively then 12 wins and a playoff victory or two are certainly within reach. I’m simply not that optimistic; the Jaguars finish 9-7, and their playoff fate is determined by their games against DEN, PIT, CLE, and BUF.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
