| Jeff Risdon. 22nd August, 2008 - 11:30 am
 Last Season: 4-12, last in AFC West, -109 point differential, -11 turnover ratio
Additions: WR Devard Darling, LB Demorrio Williams, T Anthony Alabi, KR B.J. Sams, C Wade Smith
Subtractions: DE Jared Allen, LB Kendrell Bell, CB Ty Law, C Casey Weigmann, WR Eddie Kennison, TE Jason Dunn, WR Samie Parker, OL John Welbourne, KR Eddie Drummond, H-back Kris Wilson, FB/ST Boomer Grigsby, CB Benny Sapp
Rookies of Note: DT Glenn Dorsey, WR Will Franklin, OL Branden Albert, CB Brandon Flowers, TE Brad Cottam, CB Brandon Carr, S Dajuan Morgan
I’m changing the format for the Chiefs. Rather than focus in depth on what I like and dislike on both sides of the ball, I am going to provide 10 reasons for hope and 5 reasons to panic. Because the team has publicly committed to rebuilding and has undergone a massive youth movement, the goals and signs of success are much different than for other teams.
I applaud the organization for being honest and forthright, and the fans seem to be taking it well too. Unlike most teams with no chance to win and in desperate need of an overhaul, the Chiefs decided to go for the full bikini wax rather than shaving the sensitive areas repeatedly with a rusty razor (see the post-Gruden Raiders or the post-Esiason Bengals). It’s more painful and shocking in the short term, but the foundation for future success is in place and ready to grow without needing the yearly binging and purging that stymies many a bad team (see my beloved Lions).
10 Reasons For Hope
1. After years of underwhelming wide receiver play, the Chiefs have themselves a legit #1 in Dwayne Bowe and a very impressive candidate for the #2 spot in rookie Will Franklin. Bowe put up great numbers in 2007 as a rookie, and thanks to his size, speed, and focus it was not an aberration. He will likely be the best WR in the AFC West in 2008 and beyond. Franklin has opened eyes and turned heads all summer, validating his inclusion on my “draft sleepers” list last March. Kansas City has not had two legit weapons at wide receiver in decades. With Devard Darling and Jeff Webb, the Chiefs actually have depth at WR for the first time in history.
2. Larry Johnson survived the purge. One of the things lost in the 9-game losing streak that ended 2007 is the fact that the Chiefs were 4-3 while riding Johnson, even though he often faced 9 defenders in the box while running behind a patchwork line. You’ll hear about his falling victim to the “Curse of 370” and that his salad days are done, but those SABR-metricians (I generally like y’all, but I deviate on this one) will slam Johnson and immediately sing the praises of Ladanian Tomlinson. My personal belief (I’m researching it) is that a bigger “Curse” number is 1000 carries over 3 years, which predicted Rudi Johnson’s downfall last season. Johnson has 960 carries over the last 3 seasons; Tomlinson has 1002, with 105 more receptions to boot. The point--if you think Johnson is done, you must also assume that Tomlinson is done too.
3. Damon Huard is on the bench, which means Brodie Croyle gets a legit chance to prove he can be a capable starting QB. While I don’t believe he can, I reserve the right to be proven wrong, and it’s the right thing to do for the Chiefs. Also promising is that young Tyler Thigpen will be the first QB off the bench. I actually prefer Thigpen’s upside to Croyle (and to Tarvaris Jackson in MIN, the team that foolishly cut Thigpen), and if it’s obvious Croyle is not The Man by midseason, expect Thigpen to get meaningful game action and a chance to prove he is The Man. Just watching him and listening to him, he reminds me of Fran Tarkenton. I’m not saying Tyler Thigpen is the next Fran Tarkenton, but I’m also not not saying that.
4. Glenn Dorsey is the next Neil Smith. I wrote that in my mock draft when I (correctly) pegged Dorsey to the Chiefs, and the general reaction I got was, “Come on, he’s better than that guy.” People outside of the AFC West have no idea how consistently great Neil Smith was at DT, an agile, powerful run stuffer who could get into the backfield better than most. The Chiefs have never replaced Smith and the defensive front has suffered for it. Those of you who don’t remember Neil Smith, look him up. That void is finally filled with a dynamic young talent.
5. Look up at the additions/subtractions section. Rather than trying to plug their numerous holes with retreads and marginal vets, the Chiefs brought in very few guys and ridded themselves of a lot of overpriced ballast that had no future with the team. Only Demorrio Williams and Devard Darling figure to see the field much, and they are younger guys with upside (though Williams isn’t showing it this preseason). They didn’t reach for guys like Chad Pennington or Darrell Jackson or Grady Jackson, guys who would help now but be gone in a year or two. If you know you’re not going to win more than 6 games anyways, it’s better to be 2-14 than 5-11.
6. The young talent already in place on defense is legit and experienced. LB Derrick Johnson is an emerging star and playmaker, though he tends to fade late in games. Turk McBride, a disappointment as a rookie DE last year, has blossomed this summer with increased reps and moving inside with the nickel package. Expect a big jump in his play, thanks in part to being paired with Dorsey. End Tamba Hali moves over to Jared Allen’s old spot, and in his two seasons Hali has shown good pass rushing technique and quickness, notching 15.5 sacks and steadily improving against the run. Tank Tyler has earned a starting DT spot, which means he’ll get valuable experience in his second season. The starting safeties, Bernard Pollard and Jarrad Page, have started together for two years and blend well together. Neither is a great talent, but the duo is functional and keeps improving. Young CB Tyrone Brackenridge played reasonably well in the nickel role, much better than expected for an undrafted rookie. Longtime Coordinator Gunther Cunningham has a lot of pieces to work with, and this defense should gel into a respectable unit faster than the offense.
7. The Chiefs quietly feature one of the best punters in the NFL in Dustin Colquitt. One of the easiest ways for teams with inferior talent to compete is to control field position, and few punters consistently nail the net average on kicks that Colquitt gets.
8. Coach Herm Edwards favors a conservative, ball control style of offense that eats clock and shortens games. It might not put up a lot of points, but it will also keep the opponent from doing the same. If the offense can avoid turnovers and string together a few first downs, they just might steal a game or two from an impatient, inefficient enemy (see: Week 8 @NYJ, Week 17 @CIN).
9. They still have Tony Gonzalez, and he’s not as old or as on the decline as you might think. The 32-year old future Hall of Famer remains an elite tight end and one of the best red zone receivers in the game. In fact, Gonzalez is coming off one of his best seasons, a 99-catch, 1172 yard output despite playing with alternately a career backup QB and a young project, both throwing behind a dreadful OL. When you consider Larry Johnson missed over half the year, it further proves that Tony Gonzalez is still pretty awesome and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
10. Everybody expects Kansas City to be lousy, and that might cause teams to not bring their “A” game against the Chiefs. That doesn’t apply to the opener against New England or the trips to San Diego and Denver, but because of the style they play and the Coach Edwards playing to win...the...games, they’re liable to trip up teams that don’t bring the intensity for a full 60 minutes. That’s you, Carolina and New Orleans!
...and 5 reasons why winning 4 games again might be a real stretch:
1. The injury bug has found Chiefs camp. Branden Albert, Demorrio Williams, starting RT Damion McIntosh, LB and defensive leader Donnie Edwards, starting MLB Napoleon Harris, and several other youngsters have all missed parts of the preseason with injury, some of which will bleed into the regular season. The last thing a young team in need of experience and confidence needs is lineup instability due to injury.
2. They still have no idea who their kicker will be. Nick Novak will finish the preseason with the job, but his hold on the position is tenuous at best. The Chiefs burned through 3 kickers last season, and both Dave Rayner and John Carney are both waiting by the phone for another shot. Bet on one of them getting a call by the end of September, struggling because of the lack of a full summer of reps and generally ineffective coverage units, and the kicker position remaining a big question mark into 2009. In order for the Chiefs to steal some wins in 2008, they have to have a solid kicking game.
3. Any team so heavily reliant on so many young players in so many key spots is going to suffer a great deal of growing pains. Croyle is barely a career 55% passer in a league where 60% is the norm, and working with young receivers still learning the NFL game isn’t going to help him complete more passes. Tamba Hali is the senior member of the DL...and he’ll be 25 in November. For every flash of potential there will be a bonehead decision or blown assignment. Or two. Or three.
4. Chronic lack of depth across the board. Because of the youth movement, the Chiefs purged the roster of many valuable reserves, and those that remain moved up the chart to starting status. Other than the DL, RB and maybe WR there is almost no proven depth anywhere. Not only does that hurt the Chiefs if starters go down, it also negatively impacts the special teams units.
5. The offensive line is terrible. Even with touted rookie Branden Albert, the Chiefs don’t have one lineman who would be a starter on any playoff-caliber team in 2008. Albert is making the transition from college guard to left tackle in a division with Shawne Merriman, Derrick Burgess, and Elvis Dumervil, with Julius Peppers, Jon Abraham, Will Smith/Charles Grant, and Gaines Adams all on the schedule. Any team that has Adrian Jones and Rudy Niswanger starting up front, let alone active on game days, is in serious trouble. Poor Brian Waters, a former Pro Bowl guard and the one lineman left from the Roaf/Shields glory era. Waters fell off badly without the Hall of Famers around him and he is past the age where he’s going to rebound.
Prediction: The 9-game losing bender that capped 2007 isn’t going away anytime soon. Most of the non-playoff caliber teams on their schedule (ATL, NYJ, CIN) wind up being road games, which limits the win potential for the fledgling young talent in Kansas City. This is a growth year where the Chiefs expect to take their lumps and make baby steps towards being competitive in 2009 and beyond. The Chiefs will probably keep more games closer than expected, but turning those into more than a couple of victories is a longshot. I predict with no animosity or ill will that the Chiefs will capture the #1 overall pick in the 2009 draft, finishing with a 3-13 record.
Special note to the biggest Chiefs fan I know, my friend and fraternity brother Brian Froning, who is recuperating from a heart attack: Don’t let the bad season get your heart rate up, my brother. Rest up, get better, and when the Chiefs are back in the playoff picture in a year or two, you can party like it’s the drunken boat trip all over again in full health.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
