| Jeff Risdon. 20th August, 2008 - 3:50 pm
 Last Season: 9-7, 3rd in NFC East, Won Super Bowl, +22 point differential, -9 turnover ratio
Additions: S Sammy Knight, QB David Carr, LB Danny Clark, DE Renaldo Wynn
Subtractions: DE Michael Strahan, TE Jeremy Shockey, S Gibril Wilson, LB Kawika Mitchell, LB Reggie Torbor, QB Jared Lorenzen, FB Jim Finn
Rookies of Note: S Kenny Phillips, WR Mario Manningham, CB Terrell Thomas
What I like
Offense: For all the accolades heaped upon Eli Manning for his great play down the stretch last season, the best part of this unit is the offensive line. Consistently opening nice running lanes as well as giving Manning time to throw and comfort in the pocket, the Giants' OL emerged as one of the best in all of football in 2007. All 5 starters return, and they have great chemistry, genuinely liking one another and understanding that as a unit they are better than the sum of their parts. Guards Chris Snee and Rich Seubert are the most talented linemen, with Snee really stepping up his game and becoming perhaps the best all-around LG in the NFL right now. Moving David Diehl to LT was a nice bit of coaching acumen by Tom Coughlin and OL coach Pat Flaherty. The Giants have decent depth with utilityman Grey Ruegamer able to play multiple spots and young Guy Whimper and Kevin Boothe both showing competence in limited duty and preseason work. TE Michael Matthews is a blocking specialist who did his job nicely as a rookie although he will have to beat out equally capable Darcy Johnson for that role in 2008.
The Giants enter 2008 with their deepest, most talented WR corps in years. Plaxico Burress proved a worthy #1, with his package of size, speed, and body control making him a near-impossible cover. He played hurt last season and still managed 70 catches for over 1,000 yards and an impressive 12 TD's, not to mention the Super Bowl winning reception. Thirteen-year vet Amani Toomer had a productive year opposite Burress even though the team is hoping to diminish his role to a more possession-type receiver. Taking his starting role would be Steve Smith, who came on strong at the end of his injury-plagued rookie season. Smith showed a nice ability to find the deep seams in zones, and his hands are fantastic. Speedy Domenik Hixon has been the talk of camp with his improved concentration and more judicious use of his great wheels. GM Jerry Reese drafted Mario Manningham in the 3rd round and hopes his amazing run of luck with iffy character guys continues. Manningham is a first-round talent as a tremendous downfield threat and big-play WR, but several teams axed him from their draft boards for his unrelenting bravado and knuckleheaded decision-making at times. The Giants are hoping their strong locker room and winning attitude will turn him around, and it’s a wise gamble for them to take. TE Kevin Boss pushed Jeremy Shockey out the door with his strong play when the talented pain-in-the-rump went down with injury. He has impressed in his first summer as the #1 TE with his ability to position his body as a target in narrow spots and an improved blocking technique.
Boss isn’t the only beneficiary of Shockey’s departure. Eli Manning looked like a completely different player once Shockey went down, finally looking like a franchise QB and worthy of the 1st overall pick in the draft. Hopefully, it will translate into more consistency because he had some major clunker games (Washington, Buffalo) last season. He and Burress have a nice chemistry, and Eli really improved at being patient on deeper routes with Plaxico. The Giants’ strong road performance last season was no accident, as Manning played more relaxed and confident away from the hostile home crowd.
Supersized RB Brandon Jacobs proved he can handle the feature back role, and his surprising burst for such a tall, physical back makes him very hard to tackle in the open field. He did miss 5 full games and parts of 3 others with injuries, but still racked up over 1000 yards. In his stead, Ahmad Bradshaw emerged in the postseason as a viable backup with his blend of balance and attacking style, although he spent half the summer in prison. Derrick Ward managed a decent string of games before he once again went down with injuries, as is his custom. With veteran Reuben Droughns also in the fold as a capable short-yardage back/fullback and promising young Derrick Ward, the Giants have a stable of runners to get the job done. Clearly the team would prefer to have Jacobs handle around 300 carries with his punishing running style, but with their depth and stylistic variety they can afford to keep his legs fresh.
Defense: Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo cut his teeth under Jim Johnson in Philly, and the attacking 4-3 based on speed and zone blitzing versatility fit the Giants personnel to a “T”. The front 4 was the most consistent and best overall part of the team in 2007, and though they lost Hall of Famer Michael Strahan, it’s still an impressive unit. Osi Umenyiora is an elite-level pass rusher at one end with his lightning burst off the snap and ability to keep linemen off-balance with his hands and feet. Should-have-been Super Bowl MVP Justin Tuck will replace Strahan, and he notched 10 sacks despite being the #3 DE in 2007. His ability to slide inside and still create pressure causes major trouble for opposing offenses. The starting tackles, Barry Cofield and Fred Robbins, are both solid-if-unspectacular against both the run and pass, and they play well off one another. Backup Jay Alford proved to be a rarity--a long snapper who is actually useful at another position.
Before his leg snapped in half against Detroit, Mathias Kiwanuka made huge strides in his transformation from end to outside linebacker. His ability to play either spot on passing downs provides the type of versatility and variable looks that make the defense so successful. Gerris Wilkinson stepped up his game once Kiwanuka went down, and he is the best coverage LB on the team. Wilkinson might have trouble beating out rookie Bryan Kehl, who has consistently wowed in camp and preseason, meaning the Giants have more depth than many (myself included) thought they would after losing Kawika Mitchell. Newcomer Danny Clark has also played very well and will see extensive time. The all-around defensive leader is MLB Antonio Pierce, who devours game film and is seemingly never out of position. Pierce makes all the calls and his teammates completely trust his judgment, an underrated attribute for a defensive signal caller.
The secondary has some good young talent. Last year’s 1st rounder, CB Aaron Ross, has emerged as the versatile cover man they hoped for. His improved footwork on deeper routes and moving towards the middle of the field stands out in the preseason, and that’s something that won’t change once the games count. Teams picked on Ross (and Corey Webster) heavily last season, and that experience pays off this year. The revelation of the offseason has been rookie safety Kenny Phillips, who has shown outstanding range and recognition and a major propensity for hitting. Like fellow U. of Miami safeties Ed Reed and Sean Taylor, Phillips appears ready to make a major splash right away. He doesn’t have as high a ceiling as those two greats, but the Giants will happily plug him in and reap the benefits. They still have venerable vet Sam Madison, who played nicely in 2007 and can still steer receivers as well as anyone. The Giants moved Madison all over the field to harness the top opposing WR, something I wish more defensive coordinators would utilize. The swap of Sammy Knight for Gibril Wilson shouldn’t disrupt the apple cart much, and it keeps the 2-deep stocked with actual NFL talent.
Special mention for punter Jeff Feagles, the master of the coffin corner kick. He might be 42 years old and probably can’t launch a ball 50 yards anymore, but Feagles is proof that great accuracy and a quick release are just as important as leg strength for punters.
What I dislike
Offense: Despite his stellar playoff run, Eli Manning remains somewhat of a wild card. Don’t forget that Manning nearly threw away the Super Bowl win (the Asante Samuel dropped INT) and led the league in total turnovers with 20 INTs and 7 lost fumbles. He also ranked dead last for full-time starters in completion percentage and near the bottom in yards per attempt, despite having solid protection, a very effective running game to keep the defense honest, and one of the best downfield WRs in Plaxico Burress. There is a great deal of pressure on Eli to prove he can scale back the mistakes and maintain the heroics now that the bullseye is on the Giants. The NFC East is chock full of excellent cover CBs and aggressive defenses, and Manning has to show consistent accuracy and sound decision making, something he has yet to do other than during the improbably fantastic Super Bowl run.
One thing that would help Manning is better blitz recognition from his TEs and RBs. Teams found success overloading one side and forcing the max protect package to choose assignments. LT David Diehl also struggled mightily against 3-4 fronts, and his habit of leaning inside often leaves the edge open to speedy rushers. Something else that would help is having his injury-plagued WR corps at full strength. Plaxico Burress hasn’t practiced in over a year and is still nursing his ankle, while promising young Steve Smith played just 5 games as a rookie thanks to injury. Amani Toomer is out for the preseason and perhaps longer, and at his age a full recovery is unlikely. Super Bowl hero David Tyree will likely start the season on the PUP, which means he’s out for the first six weeks. Rookie Manningham has been slowed by a wonky quad injury that dates back nearly 3 years. The Giants do have nice depth, but it’s not a position they can afford any significant loss of performance.
Defense: The secondary is the primary area of concern. In the first two preseason games, the safety position outside of Kenny Phillips can best be summed up in one word: toast. Michael Johnson makes Roy Williams the Cowboy look like Deion Sanders in coverage, while James Butler might not be able to get free from the block of your average 9th grade tight end. Johnson brings enough as a hitter and special teamer to merit development, but this much is clear--if Kenny Phillips isn’t legit right away, the Giants have a giant hole at safety. Teams found great success spreading them out with 4 WRs and also at splitting out TEs and flaring out RBs, an indication that the pass coverage skills behind Ross and Madison at CB are not up to par. Because they attack the backfield with their LBs, any improvement has to come from the players in the secondary, guys like Corey Webster, Kevin Dockery and RW McQuarters. There are teams with much worse backups and nickel/dime packages in the league, but none of those teams (except Cleveland) have legit playoff aspirations. Webster got flat-out abused in the playoffs, save two incomprehensibly poor QB decisions that he managed to pick off. He and his backfield mates will have to play consistently better.
Another thing that bears watching is how opposing offenses respond to Spagnuolo’s defense now that they have a year of film to study. The NFL is a copycat league, and one way to copy the top cat is to study every little thing that makes it purr. You can bet teams will identify the fronts and zone blitzes better, which means fewer blown assignments that allowed rawer talents to make big plays. There is indeed a great deal of talent in the front 7, and the Giants have a coaching staff that knows how to use it, but how they adjust to the inevitable adjustments is the difference between this unit being a top 5 defense and a top 15 defense. Without Michael Strahan around, the team is heavily relying on guys like Tuck and Kiwanuka to fill the void, and they’ll be doing so without Strahan’s mentoring presence. Umenyiora must fire on all cylinders all the time, something he has struggled with in his career.
Best Case: The road warrior mentality pervades, and the team figures out how to translate that into a home field advantage; they can handle the transformation from hunter to prey; more consistent play from Manning and a healthy WR corps; the team gets hot when it counts again and makes another Super Bowl run. Not many Super Bowl winners have had better offseasons immediately following their victory, and that good fortune and harmony must continue.
Worst Case: Manning fails to build on his playoff performance; the team (gulp!) actually misses Jeremy Shockey, who was the most talented overall player on the offense; the pass rush gets neutralized enough that opposing offenses can exploit the secondary for big plays; the special teams remain average at best. The Giants have lost their last 4 home games, and even a Super Bowl buzz can wane quickly with the fickly demanding NY fans and incessantly pessimistic press. The near-impossible string of luck that propelled them to even making the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl, turns against them.
Bellwether Games: Weeks 8-10 just might be the roughest 3-game patch any NFL team faces all season: @PIT, DAL, @PHI. The Steelers might be down a little, but it’s never easy heading there and playing a physical Pittsburgh team. Then it’s back to back against two division rivals who are both legit Super Bowl contenders with strong defenses and offenses capable of putting up lots of points. The early schedule isn’t too bad--they might very well enter those games 6-1 or even 7-0--but the Giants have to prove their mettle against this physically imposing stretch if they really want to believe they can repeat. If they can win two or all 3, I wouldn’t bet against a repeat; lose 2 or get swept and they’ll need an insane amount of good fortune to survive the first playoff weekend, if they even last that long.
Prediction: I’ve picked the Giants as the last place team in the NFC East two years running even though in this very space last year I espoused that Tom Coughlin was the perfect coach for this team. It’s always hard to tell how a team handles unexpected success, but once again Coughlin is probably a great fit for that too. So this year I’m going to bite the bullet and predict success for the Giants--a 10-6 finish, and a team capable of running the table in the playoffs. That probably means they’ll follow the blueprint of the 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers, who followed up an improbable Super Bowl run with an 8-8 or even 7-9 season marked with QB issues and overly optimistic expectations that fall short of the playoffs. Neither result will surprise me.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
