| Jeff Risdon. 11th August, 2008 - 7:31 pm
 Last Season: 4-12, last in NFC South, -155 point differential, +4 turnover ratio
Additions: RB Michael Turner, K Jason Elam, S Erik Coleman, TE Ben Hartsock, DT Kindal Moorehead, S Deke Cooper, DT Grady Jackson
Subtractions: RB Warrick Dunn, CB Deangelo Hall, T Wayne Gandy, TE Alge Crumpler, S Jimmy Williams, LB Demorrio Williams, S Chris Crocker, DT Rod Coleman, K Morten Andersen
Rookies of Note: QB Matt Ryan, T Sam Baker, WR Harry Douglas, LB Curtis Lofton, CB Chevis Jackson, S Thomas DeCoud
What I like
Offense: New Head Coach Mike Smith wants to install a conservative, ball control offense that allows the occasional downfield shots, and that requires having a rushing attack capable of moving the chains. The Falcons have a pair of RB's who can do just that in Michael Turner and Jerrious Norwood. Turner signed a lucrative free agent deal to finally be the feature back after spelling Ladanian Tomlinson in San Diego, often with great results, the past few seasons. He’ll split time in ATL with the dynamic Norwood, who is a legit home-run threat every time he touches the ball. Averaging 6 yards per carry behind the patchwork line the Falcons put in front of him in 2007 is mighty impressive. FB Ovie Mughelli was wasted under Petrino, but after the 06 season he was the premier FB on the market.
The wide receiver position is in the best shape the Falcons have had since their Mouse Davis run-n-shoot days. Roddy White is perhaps the only person in Atlanta sorry to see Bobby Petrino leave town because he truly blossomed into a very good WR last season. White finally put together his physical gifts with the mental aspects of the position, including like body positioning, setting up moves, and watching the ball into the hands. Laurent Robinson chalked up a pretty impressive rookie season and showed loads of potential. Much like White, Robinson excels at getting open on intermediate routes and then turning it upfield. The third wideout is Michael Jenkins, who hasn’t met his first round status but has quietly become one of the better possession WR's and red zone targets in the league. Jenkins is also a physical blocker--ask Ronde Barber or Antrell Rolle. Rookie Harry Douglas brings much to the table, more specifically the locker room, as the #4. He is already emerging as a team leader, and in college he excelled at working over the middle and under the zone. The Falcons might struggle to pass the ball consistently, but it won’t be the fault of the wide receivers.
Drafting QB Matt Ryan with the 3rd overall pick is a smart move that will look better over time. He signed early and all indications are that he can handle the mental aspects of being anointed the franchise savior pretty well. At Boston College he put up impressive numbers in leading a mediocre supporting cast to great success, so he knows how to make those around him better. He might not open as the starter, but the Falcons will live with his growing pains for better long-term success. Joey Harrington and Chris Redman are both still around to hold the fort until Ryan is ready, and Harrington can offer personal insight on what it’s like to be the 3rd overall pick and step into a miserable situation on a seemingly hopeless team. Redman managed the team nicely in his turn as starter, taking care of the ball and hitting his receivers in stride. My sources tell me Redman has embraced his role as placeholder for Ryan but has continued to work hard on his game.
The Falcons signed 38-year old Jason Elam at kicker and somehow managed to get younger as he replaces Morten Andersen and his 40-yard max FG range. Elam extends that range another 8-10 yards, which should help the overall point differential.
Defense: It’s pretty rare for a 4-win team to wind up with a positive turnover ratio, but the Falcons managed to do just that in 2007. Some of that had to do with the QB's (except Byron Leftwich’s brief foray) taking good care of the ball, but the defense did a surprisingly admirable job at maintaining pressure and dignity despite very little support from the offense or the Petrino staff. The front seven is pretty set with quality players, led by DE Jon Abraham and LBs Keith Brooking and Michael Boley. Abraham finally put together a 16-game season and was among the league leaders in QB pressures, finishing with 10 sacks and 22 hurries. Big Grady Jackson returns in the middle, and that should significantly help the run defense up the gut. Before his acrimonious ouster during the season, the Falcons had a solid run defense, but once he was gone it went south quickly. Jonathan Babineaux is undersized but generally pretty effective, and newcomer Kindal Moorehead brings functional depth. It’s a big year for DE Jamaal Anderson, who failed to record a sack as a rookie but played well against the run and was able to get decent pressure on QB's. If he can break out with 5 or more sacks and Abraham stays healthy and productive, the pass rush will be just fine. Chauncey Davis is one of the better backup ends in the league, and he can play either side.
Michael Boley has developed into one of the better SAM LB's in the league. He drops into coverage very well, but he also has great timing and instincts for the blitz. Boley showed more of a willingness to get physical and nasty last year, a welcome addition to his game. Keith Brooking moves back to the weak side, where he has flourished in the past. He’s the long-time leader of the team and a fan favorite, and Brooking is still a better-than-average overall LB. Youngsters Stephen Nicholas and Curtis Lofton both have loads of promise and will see significant time. It’s a smallish unit (Brooking is the heaviest LB at 240 pounds) but very quick and hard-hitting. Ancient safety Lawyer Milloy still helps out very well in run support, often functioning as a 4th LB. Keep an eye on rookie Kory Biermann, who is making a big jump from I-AA (I’m aware that’s not what it’s called anymore, but it’s too confusing to change) but absolutely dominated at that level and has the physical tools to make an impact in the NFL. He’ll likely play OLB but can also put a hand down and play some pass-rush DE. The front 7 on defense is good enough to handle their business and make plays.
What I dislike
Offense: Even though I believe Matt Ryan should develop into a special NFL QB, it’s not going to happen right away. All the great QB's who started right away in lowly situations (Aikman in DAL, Manning in IND, Bledsoe in NE) suffered through lousy starts and tough growing pains, and Ryan will be no exception. The primary knock on Ryan from a scouting viewpoint wasn’t just that he threw a lot of INT's, but that he looked like he was easily fooled by coverages while at BC. Ball security and making smart decisions under duress are skills that young QB's often take time to master, and Ryan will be no exception. He certainly won’t learn the latter skill from Joey Harrington, still lingering on the roster as a worst-case scenario.
At least Ryan should get experience at handling the pass rush because the line in front of him sure looks like a real potential problem area. It’s not that some of the linemen aren’t skilled. Todd McClure, Kynan Forney, and Justin Blalock are all talented to varying degrees and have performed well at points, and first round pick Sam Baker is a high-floor, midrange-ceiling tackle (though I believe his best position is C). But how this group lines up, not to mention how they handle the adjustment to their third different blocking scheme in three years, is an open question. There are a whole host of serviceable backups all over the line, so depth is not an issue. That is perhaps one of the few silver linings of 2007--the Falcons learned that guys like Tyson Clabo, Harvey Dahl, and Quinn Ojinnaka can handle some duty. The potential is there for this unit to perform well, but the same basic cast was absolutely awful at run blocking last season, and with the new face of the franchise at QB, they will be under intense pressure to keep him upright. In a division with Julius Peppers, Will Smith & Charles Grant, and Greg White & Gaines Adams, they’ll have to mesh quickly, or else Matt Ryan might not make it through his rookie year.
Longtime TE Alge Crumpler departed, leaving a huge whole at that position. The Falcons imported Ben Hartsock from Tennessee to fill Crumpler’s role. While I think Hartsock is a decent talent and an upgrade at run blocking, Crumpler is a vastly more prolific receiver. Check the catch totals over the last 3 seasons--Crumpler 163, Hartsock 20. The #2 TE will probably be Martrez Milner, coming off an injury-plagued rookie season where he did little to disprove the scouting knocks that he runs lazy routes and hates contact. A young QB's best friend is a reliable tight end, but Matt Ryan probably won’t have that luxury.
Defense: The Atlanta secondary might be the worst positional grouping in the entire NFL. It wasn’t a very good secondary last year, and they parted company with far and away the most talented player in Deangelo Hall. It’s a move for the best in the long term, and it certainly will help stabilize the locker room, but it leaves the Falcons starting Chris Houston and Chevis Jackson at corner. Houston struggled mightily at keeping his man out of the end zone in his rookie year although he did show consistent run support. He needs loads of work on intricacies like steering the wideout and feeling where his help is (and isn’t). Jackson is a slow-ish rookie who got away with holding at an unbelievable rate in college. The Falcons actually signed Von Hutchens to start ahead of him, but Hutchens blew out his knee early in camp and is out for the season. The nickel back will probably be David Irons, who will have to beat out rookie Wilrey Fontenot, who is undersized for an undersized corner at 5’8” and 172 pounds. There isn’t a great deal of help from the safety spot, where both Milloy and newcomer Erik Coleman are significantly better at run support than pass coverage. Rookie Thomas DeCoud might help in that regard. The depth is hindered by the complete failure of the development of Jimmy Williams (now looking for work) and Daren Stone (rumored to soon to be in the same boat). Opposing wide receivers should trample this group, whose best hope is that the pass rush goes from pretty good to devastatingly effective.
For as much talent as the Falcons possess in the front seven, it’s an extremely undersized group (save Grady Jackson) that got pushed around far too much in the trenches in 2007. Moving Keith Brooking outside will help somewhat, but he’s not a big-time run stuffer no matter where he lines up, and Michael Boley is better in coverage than run support. Coach Smith comes from Jacksonville, where he had two dynamic giants clogging the middle to make his defense work. How he learns to adjust to his new, smaller charges will be interesting to watch in 2008.
Best Case: The defensive front seven consistently rates as one of the top 5 in the NFL, generating a steady pass rush and shutting down the between-the-tackles runs. Ryan and the WRs develop a quick, easy chemistry and an ability to complete passes all over the field. The RB duo threatens 2,000 combined rushing yards and provides lots of 2nd and 3 and 3rd and 1 opportunities. Jason Elam isn’t wasted money. The secondary overachieves and isn’t the massive liability it is on paper. Mike Smith instills pride and discipline while earning respect as a rookie head coach. Some late wins build momentum for a possible Wild Card run in 2009.
Worst Case: Can it really get any worse than 2007? The face of the franchise goes to prison; the completely inept coach quits during the season, after alienating the veterans and cutting a popular leader; the star CB melts down in epic proportions, costing the team an early win that might have salvaged more of the season; rotating QBs, the complete collapse of what was a talented OL, zero sacks from the prized rookie DE. Save for the franchise leaving town, it simply does not get any worse. But if the young core (Ryan, Baker, Lofton, Robinson, Anderson, Blalock) doesn’t develop quickly and properly, the stain of 2007 might seep deeper than expected.
Bellwether Games: For a team with low expectations, it’s hard to really point to any games and call them decisive outcomes. The two most winnable games on the schedule are in Weeks 1 and 3, when the lowly Lions and lowlier Chiefs come to the Georgia Dome. Getting off to a 2-1 start just might keep them out of contention for an expensive top 5 draft pick next April, but if they fail to win either game the Falcons almost certainly will finish with one of the two worst records in the entire league.
Prediction: Last season represented a perfect storm of negativity and organizational chaos, perhaps more challenging than any team has ever faced. The worst is over and greener pastures lie in the distance, but the road from this manure-filled pasture to that one isn’t short and isn’t often going to be pretty. Chalk this up as a developmental year, though if Ryan proves game and the defense holds its own the Falcons could surprise and perhaps escape last place in their division. I’m not counting on that, and you shouldn’t either. Atlanta finishes 3-13 and challenges the league record for TD passes allowed by a team.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
