| Jeff Risdon. 28th July, 2008 - 8:37 pm
 Last Season: 13-3, 1st in AFC South, lost in Divisional Round, +188 point differential, +18 turnover ratio
Additions: RB Dominic Rhodes
Subtractions: G Jake Scott, TE Ben Utecht, LB Rob Morris, FB Luke Lawton, LB Rocky Boiman, WR Craphonso Thorpe
Rookies of Note: DE Marcus Howard, C/G Mike Pollak, TE Jacob Tamme
What I like
Offense: Not many teams have ever had a longer run of offensive potency and success than this Colts team with Peyton Manning at the helm. And with 10 starters returning, don’t expect a decline any time soon. Manning is still at the top of his game although his INT's and hits taken both ticked up last season. Nobody sees the entire field better, and Manning’s combination of zip and touch on his throws is as good as anyone who has ever played. He is certainly no scrambler, but Peyton has improved his lateral agility and escapability over the past couple of seasons, leaving essentially zero holes in his game. He should be fully recovered from minor knee surgery for the start of the season, continuing on his streak of having never missed a game.
It helps Manning that he gets to throw to perhaps the best starting WR duo in the league in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Harrison is the most prolific WR in the post-Rice era, and he and Manning have tremendous chemistry and synchronicity. Wayne has developed into a legit #1 wideout and a fearsome deep threat. They also have one of the very best receiving TE's in Dallas Clark, who has the ability to split out and exploit matchups. Manning is patient enough and savvy enough to find whichever of his top 3 targets is the best option, and Harrison, Wayne, and Clark are all selfless enough to take the occasional 2-catch, 31-yard game so long as the team is winning. Anthony Gonzalez performed fairly well as the #3 as a rookie in 2007 when he wasn’t hurt, and a full offseason in the offense should help him improve into a more prominent role in 08.
One of the best moves made in this NFL offseason was the return of Dominic Rhodes to the Colts. Joseph Addai is an above-average starter with great speed and shiftiness, but the team missed having a hammer like Rhodes to pick up short yards between the tackles. Rhodes has also shown he can handle the load at feature back if Addai needs a breather or gets hurt. Addai remains a very effective receiver out of the backfield, a role that will likely expand with the departure of TE Ben Utecht. Kenton Keith slides back on the depth chart to #3 where he belongs although he did average more yards per carry than Addai last season.
Defense: If everyone is healthy, this is probably the best overall defense the Colts have fielded in the Tony Dungy era. Safety Bob Sanders is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, an honor he earned by being an absolute demon against the run despite his small stature. Nobody reads the run quicker or takes better angles of attack than Sanders, who has also improved his range in pass coverage. His fellow safety Antoine Bethea earned a Pro Bowl spot, as well, and his all-around game fits well in the base Tampa 2 scheme the Colts primarily employ. But as good as the safeties are, what sets this group apart from past Colts' units are the corners. Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson are both capable of playing tighter man coverage and being more physical with receivers. That allows Defensive Coordinator Ron Meeks to mix his coverages and looks, making the defense harder to read for opposing QB's. Jackson is a converted safety who has not lost his zeal against the run, and he slides inside in the nickel package quite effectively. In Dante Hughes, Michael Coe, and Tim Jennings, the Colts have a trio of young understudies who all fit well in the Tampa 2 coverage scheme. Health has been an issue for all three, but they do provide better depth and versatility than this unit has seen, allowing Jackson to slide back to safety if needed. The Colts utilize their nickel and dime packages infrequently, especially for a team that often has a good lead, so those youngsters face less pressure than most in their situations.
Dwight Freeney remains among the elite pass rushing ends although he is coming off Lisfranc surgery, a procedure with a nasty history of robbing the patient of explosiveness. Freeney is a game-changing talent, an end who requires the offense to help the left tackle with a tight end or fullback or guard. When both have been healthy, Robert Mathis has proved to be a very capable foil on the opposite side. He’s not as quick or dynamic as Freeney, but he has great technique and balance and keeps improving against the run. The interior DL features fiery youngsters Ed Johnson, Quinn Pitcock, and Keyunta Dawson. Johnson is the best of the lot so far, a strong run stuffer who also offers a nice bull rush. Also part of the rotation is Raheem Brock, the only defender on the 2-deep over age 30. That statistic is downright amazing; none of these guys are beyond their peak years, and all have spent their entire careers in the Colts' system. That type of continuity and constant influx of young depth keeps the defensive system fresh even though it’s almost exactly the same defense Tony Dungy installed when he came from Tampa. Many have worried that the steadfast refusal to reward aging veterans in favor of promoting from within will catch up with them sooner or later, but thus far the Colts have continually weathered the storm without taking on much water. Witness the LB corps, which suffered little dropoff when Cato June departed. In stepped Freddie Keiaho; the difference was barely noticeable, and June is still one of the better LBs in the league in Tampa. The LBs aren’t the most gifted group, but Gary Brackett, Keiaho, and Tyjuan Hagler know the system inside out and do what they’re asked quite capably.
What I dislike
Offense: Losing Jake Scott is not insignificant, as he was the best run blocker on the team and consistently provided excellent pass protection up the gut. They’ve been through this situation before and still managed to thrive, but Scott’s replacement will be an unproven youngster (likely 3rd year plugger Charlie Johnson). In an offense that relies heavily on precise timing and excellent pass protection, any dropoff will have an impact. They also lost their #2 TE in Ben Utecht, a solid all-around player who will start in Cincinnati. That leaves Dallas Clark as the only TE on the roster who has ever caught an NFL pass. It’s not a major issue, but it will be if Clark gets hurt and misses more than a quarter.
As has long been the case, the Colts are pretty much dead in the water if anything happens to Manning. That is true of most elite QB's, but based on what we’ve seen of longtime backup Jim Sorgi, the Colts might not get more than 10 first downs a game without Manning under center. The depth up front isn’t as strong as usual although it is more of a case of youngsters who haven’t played than it is having a crop of underwhelming veterans.
There is some concern regarding Marvin Harrison, who is returning from a knee injury at age 36. With Reggie Wayne on the other side, they don’t need Harrison to be the #1 WR anymore, but until Anthony Gonzalez proves he can step up, the Colts still are heavily reliant on Harrison remaining a very good #2. Considering the weakening of the TE position, the young wideouts (Gonzalez, Devin Aromashodu, Roy Hall, Pierre Garcon) must get up to speed quickly, particularly if Harrison cannot effectively come back. The offense sputtered last year when both Harrison and Gonzalez were out of the lineup.
Defense: The biggest concern is the health of the two best players on the defense: Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney. When both are healthy, the defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl, even if the offense has an off day. When both are missing or hindered, the unit struggles to get off the field and is vulnerable to big plays. The inability to find a consistent complementary pass rusher opposite Freeney has long been a bugaboo. Robert Mathis is decent enough with him but has looked overmatched when Freeney isn’t on the other side. The young depth (Josh Thomas, Jeff Charleston) is nothing special although my spies tell me rookie Marcus Howard has a real chance to provide a big spark as a situational rusher. If Freeney loses some of his burst due to his Lisfranc surgery, the defense will take a major hit.
Bob Sanders’ value was proven in the Super Bowl season, when the defense was in the bottom 5 without him but top-notch upon his return. And it’s not just the run defense that perks up with Sanders in the lineup, though that’s what Sanders is known for. He stabilizes the secondary and has drastically improved his play-action recognition. Without Sanders, the Colts are real vulnerable to both B and C gap runs and deep passes.
There is a depth issue at LB. With Tyjuan Hagler moving to a starting role, the reserve LBs have a combined 15.5 career tackles. Far be it for me to question GM Bill Polian’s genius draft eye for young defensive talent, but it’s still hard to trust guys like Clint Session, Phillip Wheeler, and Ramon Guzman until we see them actually perform on a consistent basis.
Special teams are a chronic struggle for the Colts, and it’s a philosophical choice that dictates that problem. The Colts don’t draft athletes or bring in veteran special teamers; their depth is focused on grooming future starters. It makes their offense and defense consistent and deep, but it inhibits strong special teams coverage. Kicker Adam Vinatieri, the one high-profile free agent acquisition for the Polian era Colts, has largely disappointed. Last season he became the first full-time kicker to fail to convert even one FG longer than 40 yards in the Super Bowl era. He also tends to kick line drive kickoffs, which doesn’t help the coverage units. Punter Hunter Smith is okay, but again gets hurt by weak coverage. He had three punts last year that should have been downed inside the 5 yard line, but the coverage failed and the ball touched back out to the 20.
Best Case: It’s pretty simple--Super Bowl Champs. This is one of the top 3 teams in the league, and if all the key parts stay healthy, nothing less than another Super Bowl is a disappointment. Don’t expect the team to mail in season-ending games if they’ve already wrapped up playoff slotting either, which rose up and bit them hard last year.
Worst Case: That which is not allowed to be spoken in central Indiana is the idea of Peyton Manning suffering a season-ending injury. Barring that nightmare scenario, the worst that can happen: the running game falters, the special teams get beat worse than normal, the pass rush sputters, the overachieving linebackers realize they’re overachieving, the dominance over Houston and Jacksonville fades away, and the team slips to 10 or 11 wins and a Wild Card instead of their 12+ win birthright this century. But a Manning injury, or a combination of Freeney/Sanders/Wayne/Clark injuries and they could feasibly slip to 3rd in the AFC South.
Bellwether Games: Unlike most teams, the Colts bellwether games are not consecutive. Their schedule has several intriguing challenges, but the true tests come in Weeks 9 and 12: home against the Patriots and at the Chargers. Along with the Colts, those two are the presumptive contenders for playoff home field advantage. Win both and the road to the Super Bowl likely goes through Lucas Oil Field. Lose both and the Colts will probably have to win at least one playoff road game to make the Super Bowl.
Prediction: This might be the best overall Colts' team of the Dungy era, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into the best record of that era. Their division rivals have all crafted their teams specifically to knock off the Colts. The schedule is also tougher than in recent years, with trips to MIN, GB, PIT, SD, and CLE--all potential playoff teams--plus home games with the defense-heavy Patriots and Ravens. It all adds up to an 11-5 record, another trip to the playoffs, and a realistic chance to win another Super Bowl.
I feel compelled to add an insomnia-inspired vision for this edition of the Colts. The defense struggles, Manning misses a couple of games and throws more INTs, and the Colts slip to 8-8 and miss the playoffs. That’s not my prediction, mind you, but I can see it happening too.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com. And if you feel compelled enough to write, present an argument or compliment more than “I think you suck” or “Right on brother!” and I’ll gratefully respond. |
