| Jeff Risdon. 24th July, 2008 - 7:34 pm
 Last Season: 7-9, 3rd in AFC North, +5 turnover ratio, -5 point differential
Additions: DE Antwan Odom, TE Ben Utecht, LB Darryl Blackstock
Subtractions: WR Chris Henry, LB Landon Johnson, S Madieu Williams, DE Justin Smith
Rookies of Note: LB Keith Rivers, WR Jerome Simpson, DT Pat Sims, WR Andre Caldwell
What I like
Offense: The foundation for a premiere passing attack remains in place, led by QB Carson Palmer. Having a strong-armed QB who can make all the throws all over the field is an asset few teams possess, and Palmer has taken strides to become a more vocal team leader. The bookend tackles that protect him are among the top pairs in the league. LT Levi Jones fought gamely through a knee injury in 2007 and still provided, for the most part, adequate pass protection. RT Willie Anderson is an excellent all-around tackle who still plays with snarl and attitude despite spending his entire 12-year career with the oft-lowly Bengals. He is the heart and soul of the team. Stacy Andrews earned a fat contract after filling in for Anderson last season, and he could become a run-blocking force like his brother Shawn is for the Eagles. Andrews can also play guard if Anderson proves he’s still an elite RT. That level of depth at tackle is a major plus.
Wide receiver has been the strength of this team for the past few years, and if Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh both decide to show up both physically and mentally, they remain the best 1-2 WR punch in the AFC. Houshmandzadeh is more likely to remain a positive factor, and the league leader in catches last season has the size/speed/hands package that make him a nightmare in coverage. Johnson has his negatives (more on that later), but when he is on his game Ocho Cinco is one of the most dangerous weapons in the league. Because both starters are so talented and threatening with Palmer throwing the ball, opposing defenses struggle to keep one or the other in check. The team drafted two WRs that should fill the void left by the release of Chris Henry. Jerome Simpson is making a huge jump from Coastal Carolina, but he and fellow rookie Andre Caldwell both possess great speed and good size, and both showed consistently fine hands in pre-draft workouts. The dynamic Henry won’t be easy to replace, but the Bengals have a talented stable of WR's, assuming the top two are both still around.
Kicker Shayne Graham is near automatic from inside 47 yards and has missed just one attempt from inside 45 yards at home in his 5-year Bengals' tenure. Overall special teams play has been consistently decent, and the team has high hopes of upgrading the KR game with Glenn Holt coming off a strong finish to 2007.
Defense: Head Coach Marvin Lewis trots out a defensive gameplan that relies heavily on forcing errors and creating turnovers, and in two of the last three seasons his charges have responded. The secondary features a pair of talented young corners, both former first round draft picks, in Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. Both have good playmaking instincts, and veteran Deltha O’Neal is a good mentor and #3 corner. I also like the potential of the young safety duo of Marvin White and Chinedum Ndukwe. Both were rookies last season who forced their way into lots of playing time, and their skill sets (White is a punishing hitter, Ndukwe a rangy cover man) complement one another nicely. There will inevitably be growing pains, but the core secondary should be an asset for the next several years. Veteran Dexter Jackson somewhat capably reinforces both safety positions should either youngster struggle, and he is one of the better safety blitzers in the game.
The DT duo of Domata Peko and John Thornton aren’t sexy (unless you like Peko’s gigantic red afro ponytail), but both guys give maximum effort and energy and hold their own nicely. DE Robert Geathers notched 10.5 sacks in 2006 and has the ability for a repeat performance after a subpar 2007. Newcomer Antwan Odom brings more speed and sack proficiency on the other side than the departed Justin Smith, though Smith much a vastly superior run defender. Rookie LB Keith Rivers will start right away and has every chance to be this year’s Demeco Ryans or Patrick Willis, instant All-Pro impact rookie LBs. Rashad Jeanty is a solid all-around SAM LB when he’s healthy, and his experience at DE suits him well on the blitz.
What I dislike
Offense: One Bengals staffer summed it up nicely when we chatted at the Combine in February: this team is built from the outside in, and most defenses now attack from the inside out. Not many teams are weaker or thinner from LG-C-RG than the Bengals, especially if Stacy Andrews plays tackle fulltime. Despite spending over $20M on their three tackles, the OL lacks any proven depth. C Eric Ghiaciuc gets manhandled too often and doesn’t consistently pick up adjustments. LG Andrew Whitworth should continue to improve with more experience, but he needs to step it up in pass protection. Interestingly, Whitworth looked real good in a brief look at left tackle last season. It’s as if the team has 4 tackles, with two of them playing guard. RB Rudi Johnson appears worn down after leading the NFL in total touches from 2004-2006, and other than 3rd down back Kenny Watson the position sorely needs an infusion of talent. Injuries have plagued the RB position for years, and because of recent injuries to Johnson and Kenny Irons the depth is questionable.
I believe Carson Palmer is one of the most talented QB's in the league, but there is certainly room for improvement in his game. Despite having outstanding weaponry and pretty solid protection, Palmer throws an alarming amount of interceptions. Last season he threw 20 INT's yet was only sacked 17 times and faced the 4th fewest QB pressures of any fulltime starter. Take away the Week 2 51-45 loss to Cleveland and Palmer threw just 20 TD's passes with 19 INTs, very mediocre numbers. He has stepped forward with more vocal leadership, but it often seems like his teammates don’t really respect his words and that he isn’t “one of the guys”. Palmer is certainly not in an easy situation through little fault of his own, and he can make every throw in the book, but it appears as if he has stagnated at a level just below what it takes to be a truly great one. Backing up Palmer is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had an outstanding debut game in 2005 against a historically awful Texans defense and has since thrown one TD and 7 INTs while completing just over 50% of his passes. Let’s just say that keeping Palmer healthy is paramount to any chances of Cincinnati winning more than 2 games.
The ongoing Ocho Cinco soap opera really complicates a forecast here. Chad Johnson is indeed an elite WR, but his increasingly selfish diva act is clearly a problem this team cannot afford. Johnson is demanding either a trade or a new contract, neither of which the team has any intention of granting. It should be taken as an ominous sign for Johnson that the team spent 2nd and 3rd round draft picks on WRs, though as of this writing there appear to be no serious suitors for his services. If it turns into a game of chicken and Johnson sits out, both he and the offense are fried. Nobody can be more bullheaded or inconsiderate towards the product they sell than the Brown family. Having already lost excellent #3 WR Chris Henry for his inability to act more mature than your common 7th grade loser, this offense cannot afford to not have Chad Johnson playing at 100%, both physically and mentally. TJ Houshmandzadeh is a legit #1 WR, but with no proven #2 or #3 and their scant usage of TEs (only Detroit has thrown fewer passes to the TE over the last 3 seasons) he will most certainly face tighter coverage than Saudi women shopping for Gloria Steinem books.
Defense: Other than at safety and corner, there is absolutely no proven depth or leadership on this unit, and the starters in the secondary are all very young. All the injuries (David Pollack) and character problems (Odell Thurman, Ahmad Brooks) have decimated the LB position, so much that Dhani Jones remains a likely starter despite often being badly overmatched last season. He was released by both Philadelphia and New Orleans in 2007 for a reason, but he’s the best option the Bengals have at the weakside LB position right now. I like Rashad Jeanty as a situational player but he has yet to prove he can handle the strongside LB job. Backups Darryl Blackstock and Corey Mays bring little to the table other than untapped, limited potential. Departee Landon Johnson is nothing special, but his mere adequacy will look like Pro Bowl play compared to what the Bengals are likely to get in his stead in 2008.
Run defense has been a perennial thorn in Marvin Lewis’ side, yet the Bengals parted ways with arguably their two best run defenders is S Madieu Williams and DE Justin Smith. Marvin White and Antwan Odom bring more sizzle, but the team will miss the steak that Williams and Smith offered. The lack of bulk up front is a real problem in a division that features very good offensive lines in Baltimore and Cleveland and the powerful running scheme of the Steelers. Peko and Thornton don’t offer much in the way of making plays in the backfield, and behind them there is journeyman Michael Myers, 4th round pick Pat Sims, and troubled rookie Kevin Shirley, who might face suspension thanks to a DUI and a separate arrest (you’d think the Bengals would learn!). The cupboard is also threadbare behind the starters at DE, and neither Odom nor Geathers offer much in run support.
Best Case: The veteran leadership on the team (Willie Anderson, Carson Palmer, Deltha O’Neal) embraces the youth movement and feeds off the hunger and potential of the up-and-coming talent. The defense forces turnovers and improves to the upper half in run defense. A consistent rushing attack emerges and allows the team to compete in ball-control/field position battles, something they haven’t been good at since the heyday of James Brooks and Boomer Esiason. A couple of early wins and strong showings against division rivals and tough road opponents just might propel them out of the AFC North cellar and repeat last year’s 7-9 record.
Worst Case: All the chaos and negative energy surrounding this team snuffs out any chance of a quick start or a late-season rally. The development of the promising young talent, especially in the secondary, does not progress as quickly as expected or needed. Carson Palmer continues to throw nearly as many INTs as TDs, or God forbid gets hurt. No improvement in the running game on either side of the ball spells trouble. This could very well be the worst team in the league if they fail to start strong and the soap opera (Ocho Cinco, the police blotter, organizational cheapness, Coach Lewis’ ongoing battle with bad defense despite being a “defensive expert”) remains more compelling than the action on the field.
Bellwether Games: Weeks 4-6 pits the Bengals against in-state rival Cleveland, then at Dallas and at the New York Jets. Winning in Dallas is a real longshot, though the Bengals (with both Johnsons at 100%) do have the ability to exploit the Cowboys’ weaknesses. But the Browns and Jets games are winnable, and if they can win 2 of those 3 or somehow manage a sweep, the Bengals can get much-needed confidence and positive momentum. That could parlay them to challenging for a Wild Card spot. Lose all three of those games and the Bengals might not win more than 3 games all season.
Prediction: This unit is similar to a lot of the Bengals teams of the late 90s--there is enough talent to challenge for a Wild Card if everyone plays well and they embrace the concept of being a team. Those teams chronically disappointed and underachieved, and with the fractious offseason and so many young players in so many key spots, this team is poised for a long, tough year. If the team can rally around itself and put all the years of negativity and character issues behind them, they could be the surprise team of 2008 and taste .500. But barring a major cultural seismic event, I see a 4-12 record and strong contention for the top draft pick in 2009.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
