| Jeff Risdon. 14th July, 2008 - 5:02 pm
 Last Season: 7-9, 2nd in NFC South, +1 turnover ratio, -80 point differential
Additions: WR DJ Hackett, WR Muhsin Muhammad, LB Landon Johnson, DE Tyler Brayton, G Milford Brown, DT Ian Scott, S Terrence Holt, G Toniu Fonoti, G Keydrick Vincent
Subtractions: DT Kris Jenkins, G Mike Wahle, C Justin Hartwig, LB Dan Morgan, RB Deshaun Foster, WR Keary Colbert, DE Mike Rucker, QB David Carr, WR Drew Carter, QB Vinny Testaverde, S Marquand Manuel
Rookies of Note: RB Jonathan Stewart, T Jeff Otah, LB Dan Connor, CB/S Charles Godfrey
What I like
Offense: When the Panthers have tasted success lately, it’s been a result of a potent passing attack. Last season the team ranked in the bottom 10 of nearly every conceivable (and some made-up) passing stats, but the acquisitions of DJ Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad give the Panthers three legit WR's for the first time in a long time. The top option remains the dynamic Steve Smith, who ranks among the most lethal weapons in the league when he is healthy and has a QB who can get him the ball. Smith offers the ability to turn every catch into a highlight-reel touchdown, and with Hackett commanding attention on the opposite side, Smith should have more room to operate. There were times last season where opponents essentially triple covered Smith, with a LB underneath, a CB in tight man, and a safety over the top. With Hackett, Muhammad, and anything at all from last year’s 2nd rounder Dwayne Jarrett, defenses will be unable to use that strategy any more. I am higher than most on TE Jeff King, who lacks speed and blocking strength but knows how to get open and catches anything near him. Rookie Gary Barnridge brings depth at TE with some downfield potential.
The running back position still features two recent first round draft picks, but the guard has changed. This year’s 1st rounder is Jonathan Stewart, a thickly-built speedster with great balance and hands. He will split the load with Deangelo Williams, who has shown enough burst and ability to bounce outside to form a strong thunder/lightning duo. Williams averaged 5 yards per carry despite often facing a stacked front. With FB and fan favorite Brad Hoover providing good short-yardage punch and newcomer Labrandon Toefield and Nick Goings both capable reserves, the Panthers have loads of depth.
Numerous changes are underway along the offensive line, with the common denominator being an emphasis on toughness and physicality. Jordan Gross, the team’s best overall lineman, moves back to his more comfortable LT spot, with the obscenely overpaid Travelle Wharton moving to LG. Both guys are agile and physical and should help open solid holes for the running game; when they paired on the left side in 2004, the rushing offense was often dominating. First round pick Jeff Otah is a giant who figures to take over Gross’ old spot at RT, and his forte is run blocking. Much is riding on the battle between newcomers Milford Brown (who graded out as the Rams best OL in 2007, a most Phyrric accolade) and Keydrick Vincent at RG. Both are solid effort veterans, and they will need to be that because they are sandwiched between undersized new starting C Ryan Kalil and the very raw Otah. If everyone stays healthy, there will be better depth up front than in years, with a variety of versatility across the board.
Defense: The strength of the unit is the cornerback position, where the trio of Ken Lucas, Chris Gamble, and Richard Marshall form one of the league’s best overall units. Each brings different skills but has enough overall aptitude to allow Defensive Coordinator Mike Trgovac to mix and match coverage based on the opponent, a real luxury. With converted safety Thomas Davis providing excellent coverage at the SAM LB position and newly acquired LB Landon Johnson also adequate in coverage, the Panthers should feature one of the top pass coverage defenses in the league.
That coverage would be greatly helped by a rebound year from DE Julius Peppers. Before last season Peppers belonged in the conversation for best defensive player in the league, but he often looked like he was merely going through the motions and worried about getting hurt in 2007. A return to 12+ sacks and being an unblockable physical freak would give the Panthers' DL some much-needed snarl. This is a contract year for Peppers, so expect a strong effort and a return to dominance.
All the injuries to the LB corps over the past few years have finally produced something positive: an abundance of depth. MLB Jon Beason stood out as a rookie and added a little more functional weight this offseason to better withstand the pounding. Davis brings speed and quick-hitting punch, and by the end of last season looked comfortable at the position for the first time. Newcomer Landon Johnson and oft-injured holdover Na’il Diggs are fighting for the WLB spot, where highly-regarded rookie Dan Connor might also fit in the mix. Team scouts rave about backup James Anderson, and Tim Shaw is a talented bench player who might not even make the team if Adam Seward can go more than 4 practices without hurting himself. The addition of Terrence Holt brings much-needed depth and more coverage range to the safety spot.
What I dislike
Offense: Before blowing out his elbow, QB Jake Delhomme was in the midst of an outstanding season. How quickly he can return from Tommy John surgery, a rare procedure for football, is the biggest question mark in the NFC South. Early indications are that Delhomme is progressing nicely, but throwing in shorts in camp is different than having Will Smith and Gaines Adams chasing him around. If Delhomme isn’t back to at least 95% of his former self by Week One, all those weapons on offense will have nobody to shoot the ball to them. His backup is second-year man Matt Moore. While the team is bullish on Moore, he failed to outplay the ancient Vinny Testaverde last year and needs at least one more year of seasoning before he can be trusted.
The offensive line overhaul is a cause for concern. I do like the improved depth and the move of Gross back to the left side, but it appears as if the team will start different players at every spot from last season. One of the keys to effective line play is continuity and experience, and the Panthers sorely lack both, particularly on the right side. GM Marty Hurney gave up far too much for Otah to not throw him into the fire right away, and he’s missed all the offseason workouts thus far with a bum ankle. That’s a bad injury for a top-heavy guy pushing 350 on the scale. The potential is there for this unit to thrive, but the stars have to be aligned just right for that to happen, and they face an asteroid field of tough defenses right off the bat. The first three games are @SD, home for CHI, then @MIN, all of whom have potentially dominating defensive lines.
The Panthers desperately need a full healthy season from Steve Smith and DJ Hackett. The passing offense simply will not be a threat without both on the field at full speed. Muhsin Muhammad is one of my all-time favorite players for his class, his professionalism, and his picture-perfect routes, but he’s nothing more than a possession receiver at this stage of his career. Dwayne Jarrett showed little in his rookie year and by all accounts did not appreciate the club importing two new guys ahead of him on the depth chart. There is nothing after Jarrett, which reemphasizes the imperative for Smith and Hackett to remain 100% all season.
One of the biggest issues with the offense last season was the abysmal 3rd down conversion rate. Just once in 16 games did the Panthers have a better conversion rate than the opponent. That falls squarely on Offensive Coordinator Jeff Davidson, who had similar issues in Cleveland. Players sniped about the overly predictable play calling and problems getting those play calls on time. Having Delhomme running the show will certainly help, but major improvement will merely bring them back to average.
Defense: The Panthers have to get more out of their defensive front four. The unit is retooled, with veteran stalwarts Mike Rucker (retired) and Kris Jenkins (traded) gone, and though each had their detriments, the overall skill level has dropped significantly. Underachieving Maake Kemoeatu and underwhelming Damione Lewis are the starting tackles, and there is nothing behind them. Lewis can be a decent up-the-field tackle as part of a rotation, but to ask him to play every down and make an impact is asking too much. That puts even more pressure on Peppers, who is coming off one of the worst healthy years for an elite player in recent memory. Not having locker-room leader Rucker on the other side hurts although Raiders' import Tyler Brayton will ease the loss on the field. Youngsters Stanley McClover and Charles Johnson are the backups, and both need to show marked improvement in overall play. The corners are good, but without a consistent pass rush opposing QB's will be able to find openings and keep drives alive.
The team still hasn’t replaced safety Mike Minter, who retired after the 06 season. Chris Harris played reasonably well last season, but he is more a finger in the dyke than the stalwart difference maker they need. Bringing in Terrence Holt, a Carolina native, to compete with Nate Salley at the free safety spot does make the depth better, but consider Holt has washed out of lousy secondaries in Detroit and Arizona in the past three years.
Special teams were a serious negative across the board in 2007. Veteran Jon Kasay is a fairly reliable FG kicker, but the team struggled so badly on kickoffs and coverage they brought in Rhys Lloyd, an English soccer nut with a booming leg. Using a roster spot on a kickoff specialist means a young athlete at another position gets cut, and that typically has a negative impact on coverage units. Only the Chiefs and 49ers punted more than the Panthers, and the punt coverage had loads of trouble with lane containment. It is somewhat an indictment of a general lack of speed on the roster, but poor discipline and inconsistent effort were just as much to blame. Those are problems that do not change without massive overhauls or coaching changes, and neither happened.
Best Case: It really boils down to Delhomme, Peppers, and Steve Smith all having big years, and the offensive and defensive lines gelling quickly. If that happens and the running game is even average, the Panthers have the ability to win 10-11 games and the NFC South. A strong start is imperative, as is re-establishing a home field advantage, which inexplicably vanished last year.
Worst Case: Delhomme struggles to come back from surgery; Steve Smith and DJ Hackett both fall victim to the injury bug; the young O-linemen aren’t ready, and the young RB's struggle behind them; Peppers has another off year and gets no help inside; and the return game remains subpar. Everyone knows the heat is on Coach Fox and GM Hurney, and if the first three games (@SD, CHI, @MIN) don’t go well, all could be lost quickly. There is enough talent and depth on most of this roster to prevent a full bottoming out, but a 6-10 or even 5-11 year could happen with a poor start.
Bellwether Game(s): Weeks 6 & 7, at Tampa Bay and home to New Orleans. If the Panthers sweep against their competition for the NFC South crown, they are in great shape to control the division. Lose both and the playoffs are a real long shot.
Prediction: The Panthers are shaping up to be one of the prized playoff sleepers for a lot of pundits and publications, and I share that sentiment. So long as Delhomme is back to his old self and the defensive back seven can make plays, this team has a great chance to win the NFC South. The schedule sets up nicely, with a run from Weeks 2 thru 10 where they face just one 2007 playoff team (division rival Tampa Bay), and other than facing the Bucs twice, the only returning playoff teams they face are the opener at San Diego and late season trips to Green Bay and the Giants. Consider this: only 6 games on the schedule are against teams with firmly established quarterbacks. Both Coach Fox and GM Hurney are squarely on the hot seat, and both are well-liked and respected by the players. That is powerful incentive, and the Panthers are poised to seize the opportunity to leap back into the playoffs and make for a very dangerous out come January. It’s back to the playoffs with an 11-5 finish that earns John Fox a well-deserved extension.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
