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| Jeff Risdon. 3rd July, 2008 - 7:35 pm
 Last Season: 10-6, 2nd in AFC North, +20 point differential, -2 turnover ratio
Additions: DT Shaun Rogers, DE Corey Williams, WR Donte Stallworth, G Rex Hadnot, CB Terry Cousin, G/C Seth McKinney, WR Kevin Kasper, LB Shantee ORR
Subtractions: LB Chaun Thompson, CB Leigh Bodden, DE Orpheus Roye, WR Tim Carter, CB Daven Holly (injury), CB Kenny Wright
Rookies of Note: LB Beau Bell, TE Martin Rucker
What I like
Offense: It all starts up front where the Browns sport perhaps the best overall OL in the league. LT Joe Thomas would have earned Rookie of the Year honors most seasons for his stellar debut season when he strung together 9 straight games where he did not allow a QB hurry, let alone any sacks. He and LG Eric Steinbach form a formidable force that forges consistent holes for the running game and gives QB Derek Anderson comfort and time in the pocket. C Hank Fraley is an underrated leader and savvy veteran. The right side features excellent run blockers Kevin Shaffer and Ryan Tucker, with newly acquired Rex Hadnot, Seth McKinney, and Lennie Friedman providing quality depth. The depth is so great that former prized free agent LeCharles Bentley had no place and asked for his release. TE Kellen Winslow matured into a major weapon in 2007, although his ongoing knee issues are troublesome. He is a nightmare matchup for defenses: too fast for LB's, too big for DB's, and K2 is fearless and confident.
The WR position got a major upgrade with the addition of Donte Stallworth. Paired with emerging star Braylon Edwards, Stallworth is the speedster outside threat the team lacked last year. Joe Jurevicius slides to the #3 role where he has excelled in prior stops, and he was pretty effective last year despite never really being healthy. If Winslow and Stallworth--both very injury-prone for younger players--can stay on the field with Edwards and the big-armed Anderson having loads of time behind a very good OL, the Cleveland passing offense is going to give defensive coordinators nightmares.
All that firepower in the passing game is great, but I believe the real key is RB Jamal Lewis. Once he found his rhythm in 2007, he ran with the ferocity and explosiveness very reminiscent of his 2000-yard season. In the second half of the season, when Lake Erie turns nasty and games turn into slugfests and field position battles, Lewis is at his best. Phil Dawson ranks among the league’s more reliable FG kickers, and he has a wealth experience with the eerie winds off Lake Erie.
Defense: The strength of the unit is the linebacking corps, which is vital to any team running a 3-4 defense. The inside guys D’Qwell Jackson and Andra Davis are both quick high-football IQ guys who know how to finish their tackles. Rookie Beau Bell has impressed everyone with his explosiveness and physicality and provides a welcome infusion of depth and size. OLB Kamerion Wimbley thrived as a pass rusher in his rookie season of 2006, but struggled last year as teams focused their blocking on him. Wimbley is an intelligent, dedicated worker who should rebound with a double-digit sack total.
He will be helped a great deal by the added beef up front. In separate trades the Browns imported Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers, each the best player on the market at his position. Williams is the active end the defense sorely lacked, a quick power end who can make things happen in the backfield. When he’s in shape and motivated, Rogers is among the very best defensive players in the entire league, and the Browns have the depth behind him to keep him fresh and challenged. Rogers proved in Detroit he has the quickness and recognition skills to play DE if needed, and he has reported in his best physical condition in years this summer. Having a front 3 that merits respect from opposing OL's will go a long way towards fixing what ailed the Browns' defense in 2007. The safety pair of Sean Jones and Brodney Pool is among the more talented in the league although they have suffered through communication issues and mental lapses. Now that they are set in their roles and have another year experience playing together, those lapses should iron out. CB Eric Wright proved worthy of a starting gig as a rookie last year, and his physical style and natural coverage skills are a great fit. Fellow rookie CB Brandon McDonald was a revelation as the nickel back. OLB Willie McGinest provides exceptional leadership and can still make some plays in limited snaps.
The special teams are a huge reason why the Browns surprised so many last season. Return man Josh Cribbs earned a Pro Bowl spot and is the best return threat this side of Devin Hester. He also excels in kick coverage, as does the entire unit. The Browns led the league in opponent starting field position off kickoffs. P Dave Zastudil (Ohio University product!) had an injury-marred down season, but he still ranks among the top net punters thanks to great hang time. The team did lose stalwart Chaun Thompson, but replacement Shantee Orr is poised to capably fill his shoes.
What I dislike
Offense: The biggest worry is that QB Derek Anderson regresses, and the coaching staff either waits too long to pull the plug. Or, they insert Brady Quinn quickly, and he can’t handle the job, either. Anderson excelled at intermediate and downfield accuracy, stepping into his throws after surveying the defense. But as the season wore on, teams realized they were better off dropping into deceptive coverage schemes and baiting Anderson into seeing things that weren’t really there. The final 4 games of last season do not portend positive things for Anderson as his yards per attempt, completion percentage, and interceptions all were much worse than the first 75% of the season. That 3 of those 4 games were against bottom-tier secondaries and also featured Jamal Lewis putting up 125 yards per contest means teams either figured Anderson out, or his freakish production for most of the season was a fluke. That’s the biggest reason why Brady Quinn is so valuable, but he hasn’t proven anything at the NFL level yet. Every top prospect goes through growing pains, and if called upon in 2008, Brady Quinn will learn those lessons with the added pressure of being the anointed savior of a desperate franchise with no other real holes on offense. I have long been a Quinn advocate, but it’s asking an awfully lot to throw him into the fire in that scenario.
Kellen Winslow is another potential problem. Between his numerous knee surgeries and often prickly persona, K2 offers as much risk as he does reward. Without Winslow occupying both a LB and a safety on every passing play, the spacing in the passing game suffers a huge blow if he’s either injured or mentally checked out. Rookie Martin Rucker is penciled in as the #2 TE, but he fell to the 5th round for a reason; to expect more than secondary contribution and minimal blocking is asking for disappointment. The team does have Steve Heiden and Darnell Dinkins, but without Winslow they are going to be depended on far more than they should. Depth at the RB position remains iffy. The coaching staff likes Jason Wright, but with just over 500 yards in 3 seasons, he is hardly a starter in waiting. Behind him is disappointing, diminutive Jerome Harrison, who has shown next to nothing in his two seasons. FB Lawrence Vickers is sort of a tweener back (an effective one, though), leaving Lewis as the only reliable power back for short-yardage situations.
Defense: The weak point is cornerback, where the Browns dealt the best one they had (Leigh Bodden), cut their nickel back for an arrest (Kenny Wright,) and lost to injury the man who was set to play the nickel spot (Daven Holly). The starters will be Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald, both rookies last year. Both have talent, and Wright particularly showed reason to have confidence he can grow into a very good starter quite soon. But the depth is subpar, to be kind. Plodding retread Terry Cousin is the #3, Lions' washout (as bad as it sounds) AJ Davis is the dime guy, and the Browns are scavenging the waiver wire looking for more depth. Brodney Pool has some ability to slide up and play in the slot, but that leaves a giant hole at safety. The unit blew far too many coverages last year as communication issues and an ineffective pass rush left them exposed frequently.
Improving that pass rush is paramount to helping the thin young secondary, and that means the OLB duo of Wimbley and Antwan Peek have to at least double their sack outputs (9) from a year ago. Having the improved DL will certainly help, but both guys struggled to get consistent pressure even when they got one-on-one matchups last year. Wimbley, in particular, must learn the art of the countermove. Willie McGinest is more valuable as a mentor and pseudo-coach on the field than he is as an edge rusher at this point, and behind him there are nothing but questions that aren’t likely to be answered in favor of Browns' fans. I worry less about Shaun Rogers than most people, but the Lions dealt their best overall player in part because they tired of his constant weight and attitude problems. If Rogers cannot make a big impact, the defense will not improve nearly enough to make the Browns a serious AFC contender. The special teams must remain a major strength, as well.
Bellwether Games: Cleveland plays just two games all season outside their division against sub-.500 teams from 2007 (DEN and @BUF), so taking care of business inside the AFC North is critical. Week 2-4 all feature division rivals, starting at home against the Steelers, then on the road at BAL and CIN. If the Browns are going to achieve their lofty goals, they need to win at least 2 of those 3 games. Win all 3, and they basically seize the division; drop more than one, and they’ll likely need help to make the playoffs.
Prediction: The Browns are clearly improved, but the non-divisional schedule is brutal, and this team still has some questions. So long as all the key parts stay relatively healthy, put the Browns down for 6-4 out of division and 4-2 in the weakened AFC North. That would be a 10-6 finish and an AFC North division title. This team is going to need a lot of luck and great execution to win a playoff game from IND, NE, SD, or JAX, but the potential to make the AFC title game is certainly there.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
