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| Benjamin Haley. 2nd January, 2008 - 3:00 pm
 In trying to predict what will happen in this week's AFC playoff matchups, it seems logical that we'd do well to examine what happened the first time they played. This article will reflect on the regular season contest between Tennessee and San Diego and anticipate the sequel to be played this weekend at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego vs. Tennessee I
Setting the scene:
It was week fourteen. San Diego was in the midst of a stretch of solid play with the only hiccup a close road loss to Jacksonville. Tennessee had just beaten Houston after embarrassing losses to both Denver and Cincinnati. Vince Young had been enjoying some big yardage days over his last four games averaging 254 yards passing -- almost 80 more than his yearly average. Unfortunately, despite moving the ball through the air and beginning to assert himself running as well, he was still killing his team with turnovers (seven over the same period).
Basic plot:
The first half was not the greatest show on grass. Really, it wouldn't have been the greatest show on any surface. It consisted mainly of interceptions, a missed chip shot field goal, and a punting exhibition. At halftime the score was 3-0, and it was reported that the stadium sold a record number of caffeinated beverages.
The pace quickened in the second half much to the delight of anyone left watching. Tennessee opened up a commanding fourteen-point lead early in the fourth quarter. After stopping San Diego's offense once again, they were pinned back at their own goalline Failing to move the ball, they provided San Diego with a short field that San Diego took advantage of with a touchdown drive. With a little over two minutes left, Rivers led San Diego on another touchdown drive, their most impressive of the season, to tie the game and send it to overtime. Mirroring the situation in the fourth quarter, Tennessee went three-and-out backed up at their goal line, and San Diego scored a touchdown with a short field to end it.
Predictable:
Tennessee didn't complete a pass over 20 yards, which was unsurprising given that they only completed 28 all year (29th in the NFL).
San Diego contained Young running (2 yards on 2 carries), which hasn't been much of a chore this year as his YPC has dipped precipitously from his rookie season ( 4.2 from 6.7)
Merriman was a monster off the edge while he was in the game before leaving with an injury. Despite insinuations that his sack romp last year was completely steroid fueled, Merriman has followed up his out-of-this-world season last year with another merely elite one ( 12.5 sacks).
San Diego's corners shut down Tennessee's wide receivers to the tune of only six catches. They have excelled against #1 and #2 wide receivers all year because of the elite play of both Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer, both of whom have the size to match up with Tennessee's wide receiving corps.
LenDale White was a horse but not a thoroughbred. He provided their only play of twenty yards but ended the game with the middling YPC of only 3.8 yards, right about his season average.
The defenses forced turnovers: San Diego and Tennessee ranked first and fourth in the AFC in the category respectively. Specifically, Vince Young turning the ball over didn't cause any spectators to fall out of their seats.
Kyle Vanden Bosch perpetuated the sophomore slump of Marcus McNeil (10 sacks allowed on the season), beating the young tackle for 3 sacks. Vanden Bosch had his second 12-sack season as a Titan, which has to infuriate Arizona fans who saw him register a grand total of 4 in his 35 games there.
Albert Haynesworth, playing to type as the most dominating interior lineman on the season, was a menace up the middle. Even with a sore hamstring he consistently collapsed the center of San Diego's line. Haynesworth had 6 sacks and 7.5 stuffs on the year, despite missing four games. He was the only interior lineman in the NFL with a rate of more than one negative yardage play created per game.
San Diego's punting game, second in the NFL in making opponents start inside the 20, came up big, pinning the Titans twice on key drives. Kassim Osgood, the league's best gunner, was responsible for the game winner. Both times Tennessee's offense sputtered at the goal line and set up the Chargers' offense with great field position, negating their noted inability to string together long scoring drives.
Plot twists:
Tennessee couldn't protect their quarterback
on run plays? It was a bit of a shock when Young went off the field after running into Merriman on the backside of a simple inside run. Fisher assumed a Merriman cheap shot and was accused of ordering a hit on Merriman, who, lending weight to the accusation, later went out of the game with an injury.
Tennessee scored touchdowns on two of three trips to the red zone. On the year, they were the worst in the NFL in the category at 36%.
San Diego lost the turnover battle but won the game, an anomaly considering it was their only victory on the season in which that was the case.
Rob Bironas missed a 29 yard field goal, one of his only two misses on the season from inside the 40.
Ending:
San Diego 23
Tennessee 17
San Diego vs. Tennessee II
Setting the scene:
Both teams have gone 3-0 since their week fourteen game. San Diego, however, has been much more impressive with a margin of victory of 23.3 points per game. Tennessee beat two teams drafting in the top six (Kansas City and the New York Jets) and the backups of Indianapolis by a combined 19 points.
Basic plot:
The injury situation in the first game was advantageous for Tennessee. A healthy San Diego with their full complement of playmakers, including Gates and Merriman who both missed time, will be a much tougher opponent. Luis Castillo's return will also be of benefit.
San Diego is an elite team at home (7-1) and, while Tennessee has had some success on the road (5-3), it is still a huge advantage for San Diego whose win in the first game against Tennessee was their only impressive road win of the year. San Diego's pass rushers will likely feed off the noise to create more havoc in this matchup. Bad news for an already inept Titans' passing offense.
Tennessee again counting on winning the turnover battle against a team that is +24 in the category on the year would be folly. More likely, San Diego will win the turnover battle and benefit from good field position all day.
Ending:
San Diego 24
Tennessee 16
This score might actually be optimistically high. Tennessee's defense is a tough matchup for San Diego because of their ability to contain Gates and Tomlinson as receivers, but Tennessee's offense is generally inept and can't take advantage of San Diego's defensive Achilles heel, which is its inability to match up against multiple-receiver offensive sets. With a hobbled Vince Young, they will struggle to maintain field position and eventually San Diego will break through with touchdowns on short fields. San Diego has more big play threats on offense and will, thus, have more opportunities to make said plays. I believe they will.
How Tennessee could flip the script:
With another heroic effort from Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth up front. Rivers has been vulnerable to strips so, if Vanden Bosch is getting to the quarterback he also needs to come away with the ball.
By shutting down Gates and Tomlinson as receivers like they've done to tight ends and running backs all season. The biggest game a tight end has had against this defense was the 7 catch 69 yard day by Dallas Clark in week two. The biggest receiving game for a running back was a 3 catch 36 yard day by Justin Fargas in week eight.
Finding Keith Bulluck wouldn't hurt; he registered only one solo tackle in the first meeting. Other than a high interception total (5,) Bulluck has had by far his worst statistical season since becoming a starter in 2002.
By staying out of third-and-long. Young has a first down completion percentage in such situations of only 25.7%.
A third down completion percentage in the 40% range for Tennessee would be huge. This would prevent their defense from wearing out again which it did despite Tennessee winning the time-of-possession battle. In the first game, their defense, which had kept San Diego to 166 yards of offense in the first 57:36 of the game, gave up 175 yards on San Diego's last three possessions. San Diego leads the NFL with 7.2 YPC on carries past number twenty in a game and, true to form in the first game, San Diego's last 8 rushes garnered 59 yards and included the game-winning touchdown run.
By rolling Vince Young away from Merriman's pressure. Nobody else on the Chargers registered a sack in the first meeting, and it might provide running opportunities for Young. The Patriots had some success with this strategy against the Chargers in last year's playoff game, though they also had Tom Brady. This plan goes out the window if Young's injury proves a significant hindrance to his mobility.
With something approaching good quarterback play. That's why the rumored Vince Young injury is troublesome. Without Vince Young playing aggressively and well, the Tennessee offense has all the explosive potential of a wet napkin. In the three games where a Vince Young-led Titans' team topped 25 points on offense, Young's quarterback rating never dropped below 97.5. He has a history of rising to the occasion, so if there is hope, it wears #10. |
