| Benjamin Haley. 29th December, 2007 - 5:19 pm
 “In appearance it is very powerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of; it is a paper tiger.”
~Mao Zedong
If ignorant of the context, one could be forgiven the assumption that Chairman Mao was talking about the San Diego Chargers. For those inquisitive let me assure you he wasn’t, for reasons not the least of which being that he died over thirty years ago. History doesn’t record him as much of a football fan in any case. No, in this instance the term was meant to reflect his view of imperialist nations. Still, he could have been, because that’s what they are – paper tigers.
It’s hard to dislike the San Diego Chargers. Not on an individual level, of course, that’s easy: L.T.’s introduction of “classy” into the American lexicon was criminal in result if not intent; Shawne Merriman took banned substances and, after a sack, practices all the bodily composure of a man being struck, ironically, by lightning; and Phillip Rivers is a bit of a sniveler. As a football team, though, they look like they have the pieces: physically imposing receivers, possibly the best running back of all-time bulwarked by a pair of explosive backups, one of the most sleep-depriving matchup problems in the NFL at tight end, a positively massive front seven, and a pair of corners that pass every eyeball test there is.
So why are the Chargers less than the sum of their superficial parts? Two reasons jump out upon a more thorough inspection:
First, because under that epidermis of sleek athletes and star power the Chargers don’t have a quarterback that functions as their beating heart. Rivers is like as not to be found alone on the bench. His running back occasionally walks away from him in disgust on the sideline, in the most classy way possible of course, but walks away nonetheless. Who can blame L.T? Even Chargers' fans will admit that Rivers is a mediocre player, but they point to his inconsistency as his means of redemption as if to say, “yes, I know, overall, he is decidedly average. But he is inconsistent, so maybe we’ll luck out and he’ll luck into a good day.” His inconsistency isn’t a negative -- it’s his biggest positive.
Second, the men behind the curtain are nothing to write home about. Norv Turner’s winning percentage ranks second to last among the fifty head coaches with the most games on the sidelines. Ted Cottrell’s record isn’t much more illustrious. All that needs to be said is that his defenses, historically, have benefited immensely from his forced departure.
Yet still we’re fooled into thinking that these are superficial flaws, not structural ones. It has been recently suggested that these San Diego Chargers are once again a force to be reckoned with now that they’ve awoken from their slumber and bought into the new offensive and defensive systems. I’ve heard their recent stretch of success described as them “soaring to the playoffs,” “sprinting to the finish line,” and, by someone with a bit of a tendency towards hyperbole and sensationalism -- “rising like a phoenix.”
Let's examine their current five-game winning streak -- the one held up as evidence that they deserve a seat at the table in discussing Super Bowl contenders – in closer detail. Their wins, admittedly conclusive, have come against the likes of Denver, Detroit, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Baltimore. Eighty percent of these teams just mentioned should be ashamed of themselves. Just out and out ashamed. And, not only are they awful teams, but they’re great matchups for the Chargers. San Diego leads the NFL in takeaways and these five teams all have offenses that turn the ball over as a matter of course. True to form, those teams coughed the ball up seventeen times in these five games. Every recent win is against a team in the bottom half of the league in the category. This is the way of today’s NFL, though; every team but the elite ones must be posed in the best of lights to retain their appeal. This five game stretch was the Chargers’ photo shoot and, hand it to them, they looked great.
To figure out how important turnovers are to the success of the Chargers, look at their record against teams that protect the football. Teams who operate with the understanding that possessing the football is integral to a successful outcome. Against teams in the top 10 in fewest giveaways, San Diego is 1-3 with the only win coming against the Colts in a game where the Colts, predictably at this point, turned it over six times. They also gave up both a kick and punt return for a touchdown and still only lost by two points. Despite being victorious, it is at the very least debatable as to whether the Chargers eagerly anticipate another showdown. The last loss San Diego experienced, at the hands of Jacksonville, saw the Jaguars fail to turn the ball over and the Chargers fail to win.
So why are they so reliant on turnovers? Why do they average over three times more takeaways in wins than losses (a measure of disparity that isn’t reflected in any other AFC playoff contenders)? Because their offense hasn’t sustained drives all year. They’re 24th in the NFL in first downs. If they won the Super Bowl they would become the only team in the last five years who had fewer first downs in the regular season than their opponents. They’re 18th in yards per play and 17th in yards per attempt passing. Make them drive the whole field and they will eventually spin their wheels. In their five losses this year, the Chargers have forced an average of 1.2 turnovers per game. The rate at which their three main AFC playoff competitors – the Colts, Patriots, and Jaguars -- give the ball away? 1.2 times per game.
If four consecutive teams fail to give them a turnover head start, the Chargers will fall in the playoffs. The Chargers aren’t predators in the NFL ecosystem. They’re scavengers. They win against teams that turn the ball over and simply cannot against teams that do not. Sure, teams are forced into mistakes when playing the Chargers, but at some point there will come a game when the other team is cautious with the ball and it becomes clear that San Diego just isn’t good enough, that they’re not to be feared. Turnovers cure a lot of ills; they conceal imperfections like an average quarterback and historically bad coaching. Unfortunately, for teams that rely on them, they’re exactly not that – to be relied upon. You don’t win a Super Bowl by riding them all the way there. No team since the Ravens, who had a historically good defense, something San Diego lacks, has done so.
They will likely beat the Raiders in the last game and roar into the playoffs, but as has been said many times about the Lombardi Trophy – they don’t give it to you. You have to take it. The Chargers would need a large measure of both happening in order to win it. They had better hope that oft-noted wisdom is outdated, or their season will eventually disappear in the smoky haze of a burning paper tiger. |
