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| Jeff Risdon. 6th September, 2007 - 2:50 pm
 Last season: 2-14, 4th in AFC West
Coming: QB Daunte Culpepper, QB Josh McCown, WR Mike Williams, C Jeremy Newberry, RB Dominic Rhodes, G Cooper Carlisle
Going: WR Randy Moss, QB Aaron Brooks, T Langston Walker, G Kevin Boothe, WR Alvis Whitted
Key Rookies: TE Zach Miller, WR/KR Johnnie Lee Higgins, DE Jay Richardson
What I like: A very stout defense returns nearly intact. DE Derrick Burgess is as quick as anyone around the edge, and he?s racked up nearly 30 sacks in two seasons despite seeing lots of TE and FB help against him. The DT rotation of Warren Sapp, Tommy Kelly, and Terdell Sands is an effective group of effective bulk and quickness. All 3 provide a solid surge in the pass rush. The secondary is one of the best in the league, led by emerging star Nnamdi Asomugha at CB. He and Fabian Washington are both very good man coverage DBs and neither guy misses many tackles. The safety duo of Stuart Schweigert and Mike Huff isn?t sexy, but they complement one another quite well. Huff is great in coverage on TEs, an important trait in a division with Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, and the Dan Graham/Tony Scheffler combo. The homegrown trio of LBs-- playmaker Kirk Morrison flanked by speedy Thomas Howard and solid Sam Williams--is one of the more under-appreciated units in the league. Howard could have a breakout second season and has an innate skill for creating fumbles. There is adequate depth across the defense, especially if rookie DE Jay Richardson plays well. He was impressive enough that the team cut 3rd rounder Quentin Moses to give Richardson more opportunity. The attacking style of Coordinator Rob Ryan and the overall speed and strong football IQ of this unit makes the Raiders defense one of the best in the league. This unit is good enough to win playoff games.
What I dislike: You?ll notice I had nothing to say about the Raiders offense in the ?What I like? section. That is not an oversight. Last season the Oakland offense was one of the 3 worst I?ve ever seen in my 30 or so years of avidly following football. And they just might be worse this year. I?m writing this three days before the opener and they still don?t know who is going to start at QB or in 2 OL spots. The root of many of the problems last year was the brutally inept OL, and the Raiders got rid of the only two halfway competent linemen they had in T Langston Walker and G Keith Boothe. There is some potential with guys like Jake Grove, Robert Gallery, and Mario Henderson, but the first two have been monumental disappointments and Henderson is a project rookie. The team did get better mobility at QB by importing both Josh McCown and Daunte Culpepper, but McCown spent half of last season playing WR in Detroit, and Culpepper looked lost in his attempt to come back from tearing everything that can be torn in his knee. They drafted Jamarcus Russell with the 1st overall pick but as of now he?s still unsigned and is highly unlikely to see the field in 2007. Whomever wins the QB job is probably better than the ?06 duo of Andrew Walter and Aaron Brooks, but that?s like saying it?s better to have herpes than syphilis. The skill position players are among the least talented in the NFL. RB Lamont Jordan is one of the bigger free agent busts in recent memory, a tentative plodder who lost motivation quickly. Newcomer Dominic Rhodes is a shiftier version of Jordan, but he?s out the first month on a substance-abuse suspension. Either guy would probably be a capable starter behind a good run blocking OL, but they don?t get that luxury here. The top WR is Jerry Porter, who one team insider told me is ?Terrell Owens without the size or results.? He caught one pass last year but remains convinced he?s among the 5 best wideouts in the game. #2 WR is Ron Curry, a truly great guy who has come back from a brutal injury history to make himself into a decent underneath WR. That spectacular bust Mike Williams not only made the team but is the #3 WR speaks volumes about how terrible this offense might wind up. They finished in last or next to last in every category last season in both raw and adjusted stats, and it would be surprising if they moved up more than a spot or two in any category. On top of that, the punt and kick coverage teams were both awful last year and return largely intact as well.
Best case: The defense is dominant enough to cover for the offense more often; the new QB cuts back on turnovers and negative plays behind an OL that finally settles on a lineup and shows some cohesion. They get the three most winnable games on their schedule in the first 4 weeks (DET, CLE, @MIA) and winning even 2 of those could set the table for a run at 6 wins.
Worst case: There?s a ton of different ways to go here, but the worst case is that Jamarcus Russell never signs and the Raiders once again have the #1 pick in the 2008 draft, use it on QB Andre Woodson and fail to sign him too.
Prediction: I am a believer in young Head Coach Lane Kiffin, and I have too much respect for the Raiders defense to call for another 2-14 season. But it?s not going to be easy to surpass that win total despite a schedule with a lot of down opponents. Still, it?s real hard to be that bad two years in a row. 4 wins and 12 losses.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
