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| Jeff Risdon. 4th September, 2007 - 7:58 pm
 Last season: 8-8, 2nd in NFC North
Coming: CB Frank Walker
Going: RB Ahman Green, TE David Martin, FB William Henderson, K Dave Raymer, WR Robert Ferguson, S Marquand Manuel
Key Rookies: RB Brandon Jackson, WR James Jones, DT Justin Harrell, LB Desmond Bishop, K Mason Crosby
What I like: After a rough start, the Packer defense proved a consistent strength down the stretch in 2006 and will only look better in 2007. Moving DE Cullen Jenkins into the starting lineup made a huge impact, and Jenkins and Aaron Kampman form a very solid pass-rushing duo. Both are solid against the run as well. The linebacking corps played great over the last few games, with AJ Hawk justifying the #5 overall draft pick. He should be a franchise player at LB for years, a dominating run stuffer with enough speed to wreak havoc on the blitz and in pass coverage. MLB Nick Barnett is outstanding at filling holes and chasing down ballcarriers. Brady Poppinga played better than expected on the strong side as he transitioned from DE, and a full year of experience should only make him better. The front 7 has good situational depth with pass rush specialist Kabeer Gjaba Biamila and hard-hitting rookie LB Desmond Bishop, plus 1st rounder Harrell and Johnny Jolly at DT. Al Harris and Charles Woodson make a solid veteran pair of CBs who still have enough athleticism and speed to handle most wideouts.
Any offense that has Brett Favre is a dangerous offense. He?s well past his prime but can still rifle the ball into tight spots, and his leadership and infectious competitiveness makes those around him better. Donald Driver is a legit #1 WR, a great route runner with excellent speed and hands. He and Favre have developed chemistry and trust in one another. The OL features two athletic tackles in Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, both veterans who seal blocks well. The Packers often started 3 rookies in ?06, and the lumps they took early smoothed out somewhat by the end of the year. That invaluable experience leaves them with good depth and versatility up front. It?s an athletic group that returns intact, a huge plus. Rookie RB Brandon Jackson brings exceptional quickness and pass catching ability, and he fits the hit-the-hole-then-cut scheme the Pack runs. There is a lot of young talent at the skill positions with Jackson, WRs Ruvell Martin, Greg Jennings, and Carlyle Holiday.
What I dislike: Almost all of that young talent on offense lacks real experience, and the ceiling isn?t that high for many of them. Green Bay has the worst collection of RB in the league: 2nd rounder Jackson, who didn?t meet expectations in college, plus Vernand Morency and rookie Deshawn Wynn, two one-dimensional runners with no proven NFL ability. I like Greg Jennings as a #2 WR, but he?s got a long way to go before he cements that role. Behind Driver and Jennings there is a combined 37 career receptions at WR, and the Packers can no longer rely on help from the TE position. That?s another spot where Green Bay sorely lacks talent, as Bubba Franks is barely an adequate backup at this stage, yet he?s still clearly the best they?ve got. The fact they wanted to cut him all summer and nobody stepped up to allow it to happen is a stinging indictment of the lack of talent on the Packers. Favre is no longer a top-shelf QB; he will need increasing help from his pass catchers to remain effective, and this group doesn?t offer a lot of help yet. It?s an offense that is 2-3 years away from hitting its stride, but Favre needs to win now.
There are still questions on defense despite the strong finish. The safeties are Nick Collins and Atari Bigby, two unproven youngsters that don?t offer a great deal of run support. The starting CBs are both beyond their primes, and Woodson has battled injuries for years. I like a lot of the young pieces to their secondary (Bigby, rookie S Aaron Rouse, CB Will Blackmon) but they have to live up to their promise. Keeping with the youthful inexperience theme, the Packers went with rookie K Mason Crosby over reliable vet Dave Raymer. The special teams have been awful the last few years, ranking dead last in total coverage the last two seasons. That?s not something that goes away overnight.
Best case: Favre has one great year left in him, and the youngsters around him are ready to meet the challenge; the pass rush is consistent and comes from multiple sources; the youngsters on defense make plays and blend well together quickly; the special teams rise up to rank somewhere around 20th or better. The Packers finished strong and have momentum heading into the season, and wins in their first two games (PHI, @NYG) would keep that rolling. It won?t be easy because Philly is very good and these Giants will be a lot better early than late, then the Pack gets SD, @MIN (where Favre?s struggles are legendary), and CHI. That?s 3 legit Super Bowl contenders and two tough roadies in the first 5 games. Win 3 or more and the Packers are in great shape.
Worst case: None of the young playmakers step up, and the running game sputters to 30th or worse; Favre?s decline is worse than expected, and he?s not helped by his WRs or OL; the turnover margin is firmly in the red; the special teams remain dreadful. If the Packers don?t win more than one of those first 5 games, it could scuttle all the promise and excitement and send this team to the bottom of the weak NFC North.
Prediction: I like the defense and you?re a fool to bet against Favre, but all the inexperience and just a simple lack of top-end talent around him means the defense is going to have to win games for them. It?s a good defense but not good enough to consistently win games or dominate opponents. The schedule doesn?t look pretty either. The Cheeseheads will not be happy with the 6-10 finish, but this is a group that will get a lot better in a year or two.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
