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| Jeff Risdon. 4th September, 2007 - 1:45 pm
 Last season: 9-7, lost in NFC Wild Card
Coming: OL Leonard Davis, S Ken Hamlin, QB Brad Johnson
Going: QB Drew Bledsoe, C Al Johnson, OL Jason Fabini, LB Ryan Fowler, K Martin Gramatica, CB Aaron Glenn, LB Akin Adoyele
Key Rookies: DE/OLB Anthony Spencer, PK Nick Folk
What I like: Overall this is a well-rounded, talented team. Defensively they run a 3-4, and their personnel fits that scheme better than most teams trying to run it. You have to have dynamic pass rushing OLBs, and the Cowboys have that in Demarcus Ware and Greg Ellis, though Ellis is coming off an Achilles injury and might be usurped by rookie Anthony Spencer. The ILBs are fast, active, and make lots of plays, and the group as a whole has great depth, with the likes of Bradie James, Bobby Carpenter, and Kevin Burnett. NT Jason Ferguson acquitted himself nicely in the run defense, and DE Marcus Spears has shown flashes of dominance. SS Roy Williams plays like an extra LB, and he is one of the most feared hitters in the league. New coach Wade Phillips is known for his aggressive, attacking defenses, which plays to the strengths of his best players here. CB Terrence Newman is a solid #1 cover man with great speed. Anthony Henry brings size and solid instincts to the other CB spot. He?s the kind of physical corner that typically excels in Phillip?s scheme. Newcomer Ken Hamlin represents a sorely needed upgrade at free safety, and his presence will help allow Roy Williams to focus more on run support, his specialty.
Dallas has a very effective RB duo in Julius Jones and Marion Barber. It?s almost certainly their last year splitting carries in Dallas, but it works quite well thanks to their divergent styles and constant freshness. #3 RB Tyson Thompson brings loads of speed and will see more action than most guys in his position. He was the talk of the preseason with his instant acceleration and vision. Barber is one of the best short-yardage backs in the league. TE Jason Witten is one of the most underappreciated players in the league, a great route runner with good hands, high football IQ, and a solid blocker. Witten is one of those guys who does loads of things the casual fan rarely notices but are critical to winning. The starting WRs are Terry Glenn and Terrell Owens, and if they are both dialed in and healthy there are not many duos better than these two. Owens is a physical freak (insert joke here!) who commands double teams and is a great runner after the catch. Glenn is an outstanding deep threat who sells his fakes very well. Patrick Crayton is an above-average #3, so long as he?s kept in that role. QB Tony Romo comes off his Pro Bowl breakout, and he?s perhaps the only person on Earth with great chemistry with Owens. His mobility and improv skills brought a needed dimension to the offense, and Romo has shown very good touch on shorter throws. Mammoth free agent G Leonard Davis should help the run game and shore up pass protection up the middle. LT Flozell Adams does a good job protecting Romo?s backside and dominates smallish defenders in run blocking. Kyle Kosier surprised many (myself included) with his strong play at LG. Matt McBriar has developed into a very good punter who puts lots of air under the ball to allow their strong coverage to do what they do best.
What I dislike: Tony Romo represents a huge question mark at QB, and the Cowboys have indicated they?re still not so sure of him by failing to extend his expiring contract. He came out of the gate like gangbusters, but teams figured out his tendencies and weaknesses and Romo did not elevate his game to meet the challenge. It remains to be seen how well he can bounce back from his infamous playoff bungling of a game-winning FG snap. Behind Romo is Brad Johnson, who should have retired two years ago and offers nothing anymore. The sharing of RB duties is always a tricky issue, particularly when one of them (J. Jones) is playing in a contract year. It?s exacerbated in Dallas because the clearly more talented back (Barber) will almost certainly get fewer carries but more touchdowns. The starting WRs are both 33 and both have long, inglorious histories as me-first prima donnas. Owens led the NFL in drops and missed some sight reads that caused negative plays or turnovers, things supposedly elite wideouts almost never do. Glenn is already banged up once again, and he?s the type that misses 3 weeks for an injury that most guys can play through. Both guys have well-earned reps for taking off plays that don?t involve them. After the skilled Patrick Crayton, there is no other WR on the team who has proven he belongs on an NFL team. Leonard Davis got paid a boatload of money to shore up a relatively weak OL, but he?s been a major disappointment thus far. It says something that his former team, Arizona, consistently had one of the worst OLs in the league and yet they made zero effort to re-sign Davis, arguably their best lineman. There is very little depth on the OL, and both T Marc Columbo and T Flozell Adams have struggled with injuries.
The defense is certainly a strength, and the potential with a more aggressive coach like Wade Phillips rightly breeds optimism for a dominant unit. But there are a few questions. The starting DEs, Chris Canty and Marcus Spears, are not typical 3-4 ends; neither is a big guy or particularly strong, and both struggle against the run and don?t command help from other OL. That puts a lot of pressure on Roy Williams and the LBs to get off blocks and make plays in the running game. They are generally adept, but it?s not as quick a unit as they?d like and struggles making tackles on runs behind pulling guards and fullbacks. Roy Williams has certainly earned his rep as a big-time hitter and fierce run supporter, but he?s one of the worst safeties in the league in pass coverage. The starting corners are fine, but with the release of Aaron Glenn, the CBs behind the starters have almost no NFL experience, and what little experience they have has not been pretty. Ken Hamlin is not exactly the most reliable pass coverage safety either. The Cowboys are going with a rookie kicker, a position that has been a revolving door or disappointment for years. Nick Folk has the leg for the job but tends to over-correct from the hash marks on field goals. He?s also not very good at directional kickoffs, which means both kicks out of bounds and opportunities for top return men to get easier touches.
There is something larger about this team that gives me cause for concern. I?ve never been a Bill Parcells guy, but the man has a long history of knowing when to jump off a sinking ship. With all the potential chemistry issues and so many key players with either injury problems or limited skills, this group walks a very fine line between being real good and being a nightmarish mess. Parcells has won Super Bowls before, and if he doesn?t believe this team is good enough to win, I?m inclined to agree with him. Don?t forget Wade Phillips once torpedoed a very promising playoff season in Buffalo by yanking Doug Flutie for Rob Johnson with two weeks left. Hopefully Phillips has learned from his errors, but this is not an easy to manage and he?s never been considered a great manager to begin with.
Best case: The soap operas on the offense are more ?Days of Our Lives? and less ?Young and the Restless?; the team avoids ?General Hospital? on the offensive and defensive lines and secondary; Wade Phillips takes the defense to ?Another World? of productivity; the ?Guiding Light? of Tony Romo leads the team to a NFC East title and playoff success. The cast is in place for that to happen.
Worst case: Romo is a one-hit wonder, and the offense collapses around him with all the fragile egos and bodies erupting into a chaotic fiasco; the deep pass coverage continues to struggle, and nobody besides Demarcus Ware ever gets consistent pressure on the QB. The kicking game remains a bugaboo. Phillips can?t handle the egos or bring out the best in his talented but enigmatic key players. The Cowboys finish with a tough draw--PHI, then @CAR and @WAS. If they have to win all 3 of those to make the playoffs, they are as good as done.
Prediction: The Cowboys are a toughie to predict, because they truly are good enough to win the NFC but also have enough questions and issues to wind up last in the NFC East. This group has underachieved badly in the last two seasons under legendary coach Bill Parcells, and now they bring in Wade Phillips, the defensive version of Norv Turner. I just don?t see it all coming together, though if Romo recaptures his early ?06 magic the Cowboys and the OL holds up, this team will be playing late into January. Another disappointing season in Dallas ends at 8-8, and I?ll once again have to apologize to Parcells for being overly critical of his Cowboys tenure. |
