| Jeff Risdon. 4th September, 2007 - 1:32 pm
 Last season: 8-8, 2nd in AFC South
Coming: WR Dennis Northcutt, T Tony Pashos, S Sammy Knight
Going: S Donovan Darius, S Deon Grant, TE Kyle Brady, P Chris Hanson
Key Rookies: S Reggie Nelson, P Adam Podlesh, DT Derek Landri
What I like: The defense is full of Pro Bowlers and impact players. The DT combo of John Henderson and Marcus Stroud is outstanding, capable of dominating the line of scrimmage for extended periods. Bobby McCray has developed into a solid edge rusher, and if Reggie Hayward is full recovered from Achilles tendon surgery, the Jags have a pair of strong DEs. CB Rashean Mathis belongs in the conversation when talking about top 5 corners in the NFL. He makes lots of plays on the ball and provides great run support. LB Daryl Smith stepped up in 2006 and proved he’s an impact starter. Mike Peterson is a very under appreciated MLB, a sure tackler with great range who drops into coverage as well as anyone. The Jags have lots of quality youthful depth at LB and at safety. 1st rounder Reggie Nelson has enough promise that the team dumped long-time starter Donovan Darius for him, and Gerald Sensabaugh is a major league hitter. Signing veteran Sammy Knight, who is still an adequate starter, is a smart move to keep a calming, steadying influence in the secondary. The defense ranked 2nd overall in 2006 and has the potential to be just as stout this year.
The offense is built around the dynamic 1-2 punch of RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. When Taylor has been healthy, and he was in ’06, he’s a great runner with good power and great acceleration through the hole. Jones-Drew is a diminutive home-run hitter, a shifty, speedy, confident back who runs with lots of power for such a small man. He put up 13 rushing TDs as a rookie in under 200 carries, and he almost never lost yardage. Both guys can catch the ball out of the backfield and turn a screen pass into a long TD. FB Greg Jones returns from injury, and he’s one of the better in the business with the ball in his hands. QB David Garrard brings mobility and improv ability to the offense, which should help keep drives alive. The team has responded well to Garrard in his prior starts, and he’ll only get more consistent with more 1st team reps. Backup Quinn Gray can be a capable fill-in in a pinch. Adding RT Tony Pashos gives the Jaguars a solid set of bookend tackles in Pashos and LT Khalif Barnes. Neither guy is exceptional at any one thing, but both play consistently well with few holes to their games. The OL excels at maintaining running holes and getting to the second level quickly, particularly G Chris Naeole. I’m a fan of WR Ernest Wilford, who has great size and hands but often struggles to get separation. He’s a quality #2 WR, and newcomer Dennis Northcutt has great speed and good football IQ. With tall speedster Matt Jones to stretch the field, the Jags have the makings of a solid WR corps. The return teams are outstanding, as Jones-Drew and Alvin Pearman are both dynamic return men capable of picking up “hidden” first downs with great returns. K Josh Scobee has a booming leg, and the Jags have notched the 2nd best opponent starting field position from kickoffs in the league two years in a row.
What I dislike: Headed into the last preseason game, Coach Del Rio still hadn’t settled on a starting QB. David Garrard will most likely win the job thanks to his mobility and seemingly improved accuracy, but having an extended QB controversy unresolved right up to Week 1 almost never works out. Garrard has strong physical tools but has made egregious mental blunders when granted extended playing time. It’s not like the Jaguars feature any dynamic wideouts that can help out. The Lions suffer greater indignity for 1st round WR flops, but the Jaguars have failed nearly as badly with Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and TE Marcedes Lewis from 2004-2006 (don’t forget R. Jay Soward in 2000!). None are better than serviceable backups, and Williams might not even make the team. Dennis Northcutt is best utilized as a #3 WR, but here he’s the #1 (or 1A with Wilford) wideout. The team simply has not recovered from Jimmy Smith’s surprise retirement two years ago. Losing C Brad Meester to an ankle injury is a major blow, as the OL lacks great depth. The line excels at run blocking but has serious issues in pass protection, particularly up the middle. Losing the starting center for the season before it even starts surely won’t help, and reserve T Stockar McDougle is also out for the year. Fred Taylor can be a great RB, but injury issues have plagued him and he’s on the wrong side of 30. Maurice Jones-Drew was electrifying as a rookie, but it strikes me as flukish output that almost certainly won’t be repeated. He’s still a keeper and a good back, but to expect 13 rushing TDs or 5.7 yards per carry is extraordinarily unrealistic. The team lost superb blocking TE Kyle Brady, and none of the remaining TEs does anything particularly well.
The biggest defensive issues are in the secondary, and it’s more a case of unproven talent rather than a definite lack of skill. The #2 CB is Brian Williams, who had a terrible 2006 but was a decent player before then. If he rebounds to his Minnesota level of play, the coverage issues are largely shored up. Both Nelson and Sensabaugh appear to be better suited to play strong safety, and both lack NFL experience. Nelson has missed most of his rookie preseason with injury, which slows his development. Two key performers, Peterson and Hayward, are coming off major injuries that lingered late in the preseason. Rookie Adam Podlesh takes over one of the worst punting units in the league, and he was shank-prone in college. Coach Jack Del Rio is uncomfortably on the proverbial hot seat, and his bungling of the QB situation only puts more coals in his pants. His mutiny on Leftwich, a popular guy in the locker room, will haunt him if Garrard and the offense struggles early.
Best case: The Jags get consistent QB play and the running game remains outstanding, with any WR finally stepping forward as a legit, consistent threat; the sack and turnover differential, big keys for every team, are especially crucial to the Jaguars, and going +10 or better in both almost ensures this team wins 12 games. Improvement in the punting and FG units would be nice, and the team can afford few more injuries. The team faces a manageable schedule, and heading into the Week 7 matchup with the division rival Colts at 4-2 or better and subsequently beating the defending champs would solidify Jacksonville as a team to be reckoned with in January.
Worst case: The inconsistency that ruined 2006 remains in 2007; Garrard struggles to find his under-performing wideouts and tries to do too much; the run blocking falters and Taylor suffers another injury, with Jones-Drew unable to recapture his rookie magic; the pass rush struggles and the back 7 don’t force turnovers at a high rate. The Jaguars will be heavy favorites in Weeks 1 and 2 (TEN and ATL) and losing either game will get the vultures circling Jack Del Rio, and vultures are relentless opportunists. They have three obvious “trap” games (a weak team sandwiched between two good opponents), and last year Jacksonville fell into every trap. They cannot lose @TB, @TEN, or home to BUF in Weeks 8-10-12 and expect to make the playoffs.
Prediction: It’s all about QB play. If David Garrard shows consistency and improves his TD/INT ratio by 8 or more, there’s no reason the Jaguars can’t win 12 games and challenge the Colts for the AFC South. But if he struggles with consistency and inexcusable throws and the defense lapses even a little, the Jaguars will once again be the most talented team not in the playoffs. You’ll know how this team will finish by the 3 weeks after their early (Week 4) bye: @KC, HOU, and IND. If they win all 3, this team is a legit playoff contender that would win the NFC; 2 of 3 and they’re probably a 10-win Wild Card; but getting only one win (or God forbid shut out) will render the Jaguars no better than 8-8 and probably a game or two worse than that if they fall in the aforementioned trap games.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
