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| Jeff Risdon. 31st August, 2007 - 11:41 am
 Last season: 4-12, last in NFC South
Coming: QB Jeff Garcia, DE Kevin Carter, DT Ryan Sims, T Luke Petitgout, LB Cato June, TE Jerramy Stevens
Going: DE Simeon Rice, G Sean Mahan, DE Dewayne White, T Kenyatta Walker, LB Shelton Quarles
Key Rookies: DE Gaines Adams, G Arron Sears
What I like: A lot of folks forget that this team won the NFC South in 2005 with basically the same cast that bottomed out last season. In other words, the talent level is probably better than you think, at least potentially. New QB Jeff Garcia will represent a significant upgrade over Chris Simms or Bruce Gradkowski in running Head Coach Jon Gruden’s West Coast offense. Garcia showed in Philly last year he’s still got the moxie and accuracy that made him a Pro Bowler earlier in his career. He brings much-needed leadership and confidence to the offense. RB Cadillac Williams should rebound from an injury-plagued 2nd season and show more of the downhill running that propelled his outstanding rookie year. WR Joey Galloway is still one of the best deep threats in the league at age 35, and his crisp route running keeps him free from safety help better than most outside receivers. Maurice Stovall finished his rookie year strongly and is expected to start opposite Galloway, and his size and running ability make him a great fit for the offense. The Bucs have a couple of very good young offensive linemen in G Davin Joseph and T Jeremy Trueblood; both are physical, tenacious, huge and excel at run blocking. Rookie Arron Sears fits that mold as well, and observers tell me he’s up to the challenge to start right away. TE Alex Smith is a big reliable target, and newcomer Jerramy Stevens brings field-stretching athleticism and the capability of being a great red zone target. Backup RB Michael Pittman fits the offense quite well, a very good receiver who can turn a short pass into a long gain.
The defense still has remnants of their early 00’s greatness. CBs Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly are ideal fits in the Cover 2 scheme and have loads of experience playing together. They are both past their primes, but they still represent one of the top pairings in the league when healthy, which Kelly was not in 2006. Philip Buchanon is a solid #3 CB so long as you don’t ask him to provide run support. LB Derrick Brooks is perhaps the best OLB of the last 15 years, and he still has good range and unparalleled instincts. Newcomer Cato June brings experience in the Cover 2 and outstanding quickness to the strong side. They have solid depth at LB with Ryan Nece, Jamie Winborn, and Barrett Ruud, all of whom would start for many other teams but only one will here. DT Chris Hovan resurrected his career and is a disruptive gap shooter who gets off blocks extraordinarily well. DE/DT Kevin Carter can still bring the heat and is a very savvy addition, even though his best days are behind him as well. Jermaine Phillips is a better safety than his reputation, an ideal Cover 2 coverage safety and a hard guy to block. 1st round DE Gaines Adams was a devastating pass rusher in college with enough bulk and quickness to make a difference in the run defense as well. The Bucs have some nice younger depth players up front, and the unit overall should be much quicker. P Josh Bidwell was probably the best player on the team in the second half of 2006, and K Matt Bryant is a solid clutch kicker with a giant leg, as his 62-yard game winner over the Eagles proved.
What I dislike: It’s unrealistic to think that all the key players who had poor 2006 seasons will all rebound. WR Mark Clayton has officially entered “one-year wonder” status, and I don’t foresee a bounce-back season, certainly not in Tampa. Cadillac Williams struggled reading blocks and he’s not the top of RB that can instantly accelerate out of trouble. Jeff Garcia will bring more to the table at QB, but he does not throw a good deep ball. He also has a virulent history of playing down to the talent around him, as he did in Detroit and Cleveland. He’s very much a fair-weather QB; all’s well when the skies are sunny but when it’s even a bit cloudy Garcia is a locker-room tornado and turnover machine. The skill position talent on this team is inconsistent at best, and the line in front of him will struggle in pass protection and has already suffered injury problems. The team brought in LT Luke Petitgout to shore up the blind side, but he’s struggled with injuries his entire career and is already no better than doubtful for the first month. The Bucs do have better OL depth than most teams, but it’s not a real proven strength to begin with. WR David Boston blew his chance for redemption with a recent DUI, probably ending what was once a very promising career. Other than Galloway this is probably the slowest WR group in the league, and it’s not a unit that thrives at the improv skills of their QB. Jerramy Stevens got run out of Seattle for being an unreliable knucklehead. The entire ordeal with the QB situation cannot possibly be conductive for success. The Bucs traded for Jake Plummer, who chose to retire instead of compete for a job. Garcia has been awful in three of the last 4 seasons, including a West Coast offense in Detroit with better WRs than he has here. Last year’s opening week starter, Chris Simms, is still recovering from a splenectomy and might never recapture his promise. Yet they’ve kept stringing him along. Last year’s rookie, Bruce Gradkowski, played reasonably well for a few weeks before defenses caught on to his low delivery and propensity to throw back across his body. And they also have Luke McCown, who Coach Gruden has continually praised. The pecking order was undecided until mid-August and is still somewhat volatile--after the 2nd preseason game the team once again contacted Plummer and tried to lure him back. That’s not a ringing endorsement of Garcia, a guy who has never handled challenges to his position with either maturity or strong play.
Despite all the residual talent on defense, this is no longer the dominant unit of the past decade. They fell out of the top 10 last season and will be hard-pressed to claw back into the upper half in 2007. I will never question the greatness of Derrick Brooks, but he has clearly lost a step and missed more tackles last year than he probably had his entire career. Kevin Carter is nothing more than adequate at DT with his lack of bulk and aging legs. Parting ways with Simeon Rice and DeWayne White at DE hurts the depth and overall skill level, even though Rice’s best days were clearly behind him. The Bucs registered just 25 sacks in 2006 and ranked 30th in QB pressures, shockingly low totals for a Monte Kiffin defense. The two best pass rushers on the team are now gone, and 1st rounder Adams has not looked NFL-ready this summer. Both starting CBs are on the downside, and after Phillip Buchanon at nickelback the cupboard is pretty bare. The starting safeties, Will Allen and Jermaine Phillips, both get confused in coverage way too often, and neither forces turnovers very well. There are very few starters in the primes of their careers on either side of the ball, but especially on defense. That means the Bucs are a conglomeration of declining vets and largely untested youth.
Best case: Garcia inspires the team with strong QB play, revitalizing Cadillac Williams and the wideouts; the youngsters on the OL get up to speed quickly and gel together; the vets on defense squeeze one more solid season from their aging legs, and the pass rush moves up into at least the top 20. There have been teams in this status that have surprised in the past, Gruden’s Raiders among them, and a couple of early, decisive victories (the first 4 games are @SEA, NO, STL, @CAR--no walks in the park!) can launch the Bucs back into the playoffs. Stranger things have happened, and it often happens in the NFC South.
Worst case: The QB issues cause the team to implode, with little help from a spotty running game and an inexperienced OL; the fountain of youth dries up for Galloway, Brooks, Barber, Carter, Garcia, et al., and none of the draftees of the past two seasons are ready to step in just yet. 2006 repeats itself--a slow start causes an offense with no proven identity to flounder, and the playmakers on defense simply don’t make enough plays. Gruden might not survive the season if they’re 1-6 or 3-9, and the aging vets might mail it in quickly if the season is lost early.
Prediction: I’ve honestly gone back and forth on the Buccaneers; I can foresee an anemic offense dragging this team to the worst record in the league, but I can also see some scenarios where the vets click for one more run and the youngsters buy in and contribute enough to make it happen. They benefit from a last-place schedule and keeping the coaching staff and systems largely intact. It’s not out of the question that Tampa Bay continues the NFC South worst-to-first run (4 seasons and counting) and wins 11 games, but it’s far more likely the Bucs sputter to a 6 or 7 win finish.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
