| Jeff Risdon. 20th August, 2007 - 2:56 pm
 Last season: 6-10, 3rd in NFC North
Coming: TE Visanthe Shiancoe, S Mike Doss, WR Bobby Wade
Going: QB Brad Johnson, LB Napoleon Harris, CB Fred Smoot, TE Jermaine Wiggins
Key Rookies: RB Adrian Peterson, WR Sidney Rice, WR/KR Aundrae Allison
What I like: The running game of the Vikings has the potential to dominate. Rookie Adrian Peterson is an explosive, creative, powerful runner who looks like a rare talent in the mold of Eric Dickerson. His RB partner is Chester Taylor, who notched over 1200 yards last season. Taylor brings an elusive blend of quickness and surprising power, and he’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield. The talented duo gets to run behind perhaps the best run blocking LT-LG combo in the NFL in Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson, and Matt Birk is an above-average C when he’s healthy. FB Tony Richardson is a savvy veteran who does all the little things that help offenses succeed. The group of WRs has a mix of styles and talents that should blend well: the speed guy (Troy Williamson), the shifty slot guy (Bobby Wade), the big possession guy (Billy McMullen), the physically gifted youngster (rookie Sidney Rice) and the X-factor (rookie Aundrae Allison).
The biggest strength of the Vikings is their run defense, led by DTs Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. They led the league in rushing yards against, and teams avoided running as much as possible because they knew it was largely futile. Pat Williams is the premier run clogger in the game, while Kevin Williams has a blend of quickness and strength that demands double teams on every snap. 2nd year DE Ray Edwards has been the talk of camp and preseason, and his speed off the edge should pair nicely with the big guys in the middle. CB Antoine Winfield is one of the most physical cover men around, and his run support is stellar. His mate Cedric Griffin played surprisingly well as a rookie and the two make a solid starting tandem. Yet another 2nd year man (the Vikes have strung together two very solid drafts), LB Chad Greenway favorably compares to any incoming rookie and should more than offset the loss of Nap Harris. With the underrated Ben Leber and the freakishly quick EJ Henderson on the weak side, the Vikings have a trio of LBs who can make plays all over the field. Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier comes from the school of blitzkrieg attack, so the pass rush should wind up improving.
What I dislike: In all my years of following the NFL, there haven’t been 5 worse QB/WR packages than what the Vikings are going to trot out this season. QB Tarvaris Jackson isn’t even close to ready to lead a passing attack, but the 2nd year man is the starter only because the other QB, Brooks Bollinger, has proven he’s incapable of doing anything positive. Jackson has a strong arm and great athleticism, but he has zero pocket sense or poise, and his accuracy ranges from “the wideout made a great catch on that one” to “Cris Carter couldn’t come within 5 yards of catching that”. It doesn’t help that he doesn’t have Cris Carter to throw to, or even Drew or Tim Carter. The WR corps might have the positives I listed above, but the reality is that none of these guys has proven they belong on the field in the NFL. Troy Williamson has world-class speed but cannot catch a ball to save his life (or career), though he did undergo eye therapy to help. Billy McMullen has great size and hands but is perhaps the slowest, least quick wideout in the league. Bobby Wade ranked dead last in advanced WR stats two years in a row and runs sloppy routes. Rookie Sidney Rice has promising potential, but several teams had him flagged for attitude and football IQ. It says a lot that not one of his college coaches or teammates had anything positive to say about Rice at the Combine. I actually really like Aundrae Allison, the other rookie wideout, but he needs a year or two of refinement before he’s more than an NFL #4. They grossly overpaid for TE Visanthe Shiancoe, a career backup who caught 12 passes last season in New York and is a lousy blocker for a guy his size. In short, it says a great deal that this offense will sorely miss the decidedly average Travis Taylor.
It’s awful hard for a DE to start 16 games and not register one sack, but Kenechi Udeze did that in 2006. The pass rush from the DE position has been a bugaboo for years, and while Ray Edwards looks promising and Darrion Scott is a quality #3 end, to expect a unit to turn from inept to a strength in one offseason is delusional. The Vikings resort to loads of blitzing, which exposes their safeties more than needed. They have decent depth at safety, but no real playmakers or difference makers, and they’re still searching for a nickel corner that doesn’t make the coaches cringe. Ryan Longwell is no longer even an average kicker, and Chris Kluwe needs to be replaced at P.
There have been a lot of 1st-time head coaches in the league over the past few seasons, and normally I like to give a freshly minted coach 3 years before I make up my mind about them. But in the case of Brad Childress, it’s pretty apparent he just isn’t ever going to be a successful head coach. From his heavy-handed style to his failure to command respect to his poor clock management and predictable playcalling, the Vikings unfortunately must suffer thru his growing pains.
Best case: The running game dominates enough that the lack of a passing attack is mitigated; QB Jackson develops chemistry with one or more of his wideouts and improves his accuracy; a pass rush from the front 4 notches more sacks and forces more turnovers; little dropoff in the dominating run defense. As is the case for most teams, a fast start against the easy part of their schedule would build confidence and momentum. They open with ATL, @DET, @KC, and GB before their bye week, and the Vikings could win at least 3 of those 4. That would set the table for a potential run at a Wild Card and 8 or 9 wins.
Worst case: The passing offense remains a sick joke, and it affects the ability to showcase their dynamic running game; the turnover and sack differentials are both -5 (or worse); the special teams are no better than average and Longwell can’t even hit the 45 yarders anymore; the anemic offense causes the defense to become apathetic and drives a wedge through the team, which exacerbates the ineffective coaching. If this team is no better than 1-3 in that opening stretch, it’s quite feasible they won’t finish with more than 4 wins.
Prediction: Barring a late preseason move to bring in a veteran starting QB (a la Kelly Holcomb or Billy Volek), this is a team with a playoff-caliber running game, elite run defense, decent pass defense, and exciting young talent that has absolutely no shot at surpassing 6 wins. The defense is good enough to keep most games close and probably steal at least a couple of wins, and Adrian Peterson is the kind of RB where the defense can know what play he’s running and he can still rip off 6 yards. Expect a lot of sloppy, low-scoring games (note to gamblers: take the under on anything over 30.5) where the Vikings poor coaching and iffy special teams are the difference. As the team stands now, they’ll finish 5-11, but if a capable new QB comes in (or Jackson miraculously improves), it’s not out of the question for this team to win the NFC North. |
