| Jeff Risdon. 8th August, 2007 - 2:01 pm
 Last season: 8-8, 2nd in NFC South
Coming: S Deke Cooper, QB David Carr, S Chris Harris, DE Dave Ball
Going: WR Keyshawn Johnson, DE Al Wallace, LB Chris Draft, TE Kris Magnum, QB Chris Weinke, S Mike Minter
Key Rookies: WR Dwayne Jarrett, LB Jon Beason, WR/KR Ryne Robinson, DE Charles Johnson, C Ryan Kalil
What I like: This was a team that many prognosticators felt good enough about to pick as a Super Bowl team before last season. Almost every starter returns, and the primary reason why the 2006 Panthers struggled was injuries, not lack of talent. They have the game’s premier outside weapon in WR Steve Smith, who is uncoverably quick and can break short slants and outs into huge gains. Even when he’s the focal point of the defense he can still light up even the toughest defenses, just ask Bears fans. Rookie Jarrett is similar to the man he’s replacing, Keyshawn Johnson, a big target with great body control but not a lot of speed. Slot WR Drew Carter has turned heads all offseason with his improved route running and dedication, and he has great speed and decent size. The RB package of Deshaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams is a potent 1-2 punch. Changing the blocking scheme to a more zone-block style befits the talents of the RBs and, more importantly, really plays to the strengths of their linemen. LT Travelle Wharton and RT Jordan Gross are both better on the move and playing angles, which the new system frees them to do more often. Rookie Ryan Kalil won the starting C job the 2nd day of training camp and was a master technician in college. QB Jake Delhomme is the long-time leader of the offense and wasn’t as bad as most people think in 2006, considering the patchwork line and painfully thin WR corps.
Defensively the Panthers might have the game’s top defensive force in DE Julius Peppers. Peppers is a physical marvel, an unblockable package of size, quickness, and strength. He gets double teamed every snap and still puts up 12+ sacks every season. Kris Jenkins, when healthy and in shape, is a premier run stuffer. There is solid depth up front, and rookie DE Charles Johnson has the potential to be an impact pass rusher right away. The Panthers sport a very solid trio of CBs in Chris Gamble, Richard Marshall, and Ken Lucas, all three of whom have shown good playmaking ability. There’s loads of speed at LB with Dan Morgan and converted safety Thomas Davis, and adding a no-nonsense tackler like Beason adds range and depth to a run defense that needed both. The Panthers have held the title of best punt coverage team in the NFC two years running behind P Jason Baker, and K John Kasay is still able to hit from 50+ yards.
What I dislike: The Panthers fired Offensive Coordinator Dan Henning, which in itself wasn’t a bad move considering their abysmal 3rd down conversion rate and unimaginative passing attack. But bringing in Jeff Davidson as his replacement is a real head scratcher. Davidson came from the Browns, where his unit (the OL) was perhaps the worst in football and the offense was (and is) a rudderless dinghy in a sea of racing yachts. Changing the blocking scheme is a good move, but it will require adjustment time from the linemen, most of whom are no better than adequate starters. Delhomme is coming off a poor season at QB; he’s always been streaky but last year his tap ran cold a lot more than hot. If he’s still cold this year, the controls go to David Carr. Carr represents an upgrade at backup QB but the top skill players clearly love and respect Delhomme and a QB controversy might scuttle the season. I do like Dwayne Jarrett more than most people as a complement to Steve Smith at WR, but he’s neither fast nor quick and could struggle when the field is long. Drew Carter is largely unproven and Keary Colbert is a major disappointment, and beyond that is rookie Ryne Robinson, who makes the diminutive Smith look towering. The TE position is perhaps the weakest in the league, though I do like Jeff King’s upside as a receiver. There’s a major hole at safety, where longtime starter/team leader Mike Minter has retired and untested Nate Salley or up-and-down newcomer Chris Harris will take over. This defense requires the safeties to be very responsible as all three corners like to gamble. Minter will be missed in the locker room and by the media more than on the field.
Then there’s the health factor: Deshaun Foster cannot stay healthy. Smith struggles with injuries every year. Wharton is coming off a bad knee injury. Dan Morgan is one more bump to the head from being an ingredient in vegetable soup. Jenkins often eats his way into knee and back problems. DE Mike Rucker is still limping from a torn ACL late last year. Those are 6 of the top 10 players on the team (in theory anyways), and all except Rucker have missed at least 18 games over the last 3 seasons due to injury. Being that dependant on so many guys who chronically struggle to stay in the lineup is a dangerous gamble.
Best case: Everyone stays healthy, Delhomme regains his status as “The Man”, the young WRs and DBs step up and make plays, and the Panthers mow through a very favorable early schedule to the NFC South title. Breakout seasons from DeAngelo Williams, Chris Gamble and Thomas Davis would go a long way towards accomplishing that. The rookie class has the potential to be one of the best and make a big splash right away. Head Coach John Fox is on the proverbial hot seat, and the talented vets on this team might respond well to that as a uniting factor, something this team has lacked lately.
Worst case: The injury bug bites again, Delhomme plays like his 2006 self, and the running game never gets the ball rolling; the young LBs don’t make a big impact, and none of the safeties emerge as playmakers or even legit players; a slow start against an easy schedule could mean changes at QB and in the coaching staff, either of which ends any shot at a playoff run. The completion percentage on 1st down and the 3rd down conversion rate, both last in the NFL in 2006, must improve into at least the low 20s in rank in order for this team to win more than it loses.
Prediction: This team is a lot closer to the preseason Super Bowl pick of last summer than it is to being 8-8 (or worse) again. Don’t forget the Panthers swept the Saints last year and went 5-1 in the NFC South, but went 0-4 vs. the NFC East. They get the weaker NFC West this year, as well as replacing the powerful AFC North with the inferior AFC South. There’s no reason outside of major injury trouble that this team cannot repeat its intra-divisional success and add at least 2 more wins outside the division from last year. Recent history suggests it; the Panthers cycled from 7 wins to 11 wins to 7 wins from 2002 to 2004, and then followed that by winning 11 in ’05 and 8 in ’06. By that pattern the Panthers are due for a strong bounce back. But I’m concerned about injuries, the reliance on so much talented but unproven youth, and issues at WR and safety. These Panthers go 10-6 and earn a Wild Card, with a very good chance to win at least one playoff game.
You can reach the author at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
