| Jeff Risdon. 26th July, 2007 - 2:32 pm
 Last season: 10-6, lost Wild Card round
Coming: RB Thomas Jones, DE David Bowens, DE Kenyon Coleman
Going: RB Derrick Blaylock, QB Patrick Ramsey, T Trey Teague, G Pete Kendall
Key Rookies: LB David Harris, CB Darrelle Revis, WR Chansi Stuckey
What I like: The Jets filled their biggest hole on offense by signing RB Thomas Jones, a Pro Bowl bell-cow back whose patient/explosion running style should produce lots of success in their blocking scheme. Pairing Jones with shifty Leon Washington turns a long-time positional weakness into a strength for the Jets. QB Chad Pennington is essentially Peyton Manning without arm strength or all the line tics (or a shiny ring!). He’s an intelligent field general who puts the ball exactly where it needs to be and always seems to find the open man in his progressions. C Nick Mangold could have been Rookie of the Year and is already one of the top at his position. RG Brandon Moore and LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson are both quality starters who will keep getting better. TE Chris Baker showed he’s more than just a good blocker and seems poised for a breakout campaign.
Kerry Rhodes at safety is an emerging star and is the best playmaker on the defense. The Jets have a decent collection of solid veterans at LB and look as if they’ve improved their pass rush at DE. Bryan Thomas, Shaun Ellis, and Jonathan Vilma are a strong defensive core. Mike Nugent finally lived up to his lofty draft status and his distance on kickoffs tangibly improved as the year progressed. The young coaching staff made a lot of lemonade out of lots of souring potential last year, and this year the players’ confidence and morale will be higher. The team is always prepared and makes few mental mistakes, with classic overachievers at several key positions.
What I dislike: The defensive line personnel does not fit their 3-4 scheme. They are both undersized and don’t tie up blocks well. Last year they struggled to stop teams that ran the ball between the tackles, and though rookie David Harris will help, the Jets still lack the fearsome, reliable run stuffer up the gut. For all the acclaim that LB Jonathan Vilma gets, he needs to make more plays on his own and he’s caught in the wash way too often. It appears already that 1st rounder Revis is their top CB, which speaks highly of him and poorly of the rest of the cast. They face a lot of pass-happy teams that use 3 or more WR sets, and their secondary will often be overmatched against those extra wideouts. There is very little depth behind the starters across the defense. Other than Rhodes, Thomas, Ellis, and Vilma at times, none of the starters are any better than marginally adequate at their roles in this defense.
Losing LG Pete Kendall is a bigger blow than what he offered in terms of blocking ability. He anchored the line and was a steadying, calming presence on a line in desperate need of a rock. The Jets had poor line depth to begin with, so losing a starter so late in the offseason is a major problem. Their WR corps has some talent, but Laveranues Coles is too enigmatic and imprecise to be a true #1 WR and Jerrico Cotchery is adequate but instills fear in no one. Behind those two there is very little proven talent or even potential, as converted QB Brad Smith is the best of the current lot. Pennington’s lack of a big arm takes a lot of defenses off the hook and allows opposing safeties to have more of an impact versus the run.
Best case: Thomas Jones returns to the Pro Bowl and Pennington recaptures his 2006 magic; playmakers emerge at WR and CB; Vilma and Robertson adapt better to their roles in the 3-4; the players continue to believe in Mangini & Co. and keep embracing their disrespected, overachiever identity.
Worst case: Pennington either gets hurt or loses effectiveness and even more zip off his changeup-speed fastball; the undersized defense gets pounded early and often; the secondary falls victim to lapses and fails to make plays; Nugent struggles with accuracy on FGs again, and no return man steps up. Early losses against a much tougher schedule could evaporate the aura of confidence and accomplishment that the coaching staff so carefully cultivated last year.
Prediction: Last year the Jets suffered very few injuries, very little adversity, and got a lot of unexpectedly bright performances from their lesser stars. Even though they look better on paper this year and I greatly respect their coaching staff, it’s very difficult for me to believe that everything will come up roses once again. There’s enough talent at enough spots, and strong enough coaching and experience that they’re not going to collapse. But the playoffs seem like a long shot. A 7-9 finish and a critical offseason await these Jets. |
