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| Jeff Risdon. 26th July, 2007 - 2:25 pm
 Last season: 12-4, won Super Bowl
Coming: G Rick Demulling
Going: T Tarik Glenn, CB Nick Harper, CB Jason David, LB Cato June, LB Gilbert Gardner, DT Montae Reagor, WR Brandon Stokely, RB Dominic Rhodes
Key Rookies: WR Anthony Gonzalez, T Tony Ugoh, CB Daymeion Hughes, WR/TE Roy Hall
What I like: Any time a team wins a Super Bowl and has racked up at least 12 wins for 4 years in a row, there’s a lot to like. It all begins with QB Peyton Manning. Now that he’s finally won the big game there is no question he’s among the greatest QBs of all time and is still in his prime. He’s got a better arm than most people give him credit for, and his accuracy, poise, and intangibles are unmatched. He gets to throw to two outstanding WRs in Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, and TE Dallas Clark is a difference making receiver. RB Joseph Addai comes off a rookie season where he progressed quite nicely and has all the trappings of a solid feature back. Both his Buckeye rookies, Hall and Gonzalez, appear to be tailor-made contributors to the passing game, and #2 TE Ben Utecht would start on many other teams. The offense is explosive, confident, and versatile enough to put up 21+ points on any defense they face.
Defensively they lost a lot of veteran starters, but savvy drafting the past few seasons means there should be little dropoff. New starting CBs Tim Jennings and Marlin Jackson are probably better run defenders than Harper and David, and rookie Hughes has great potential as a shutdown cover man. A healthy Bob Sanders ranks as among the most impact defensive players in the league, as he showed time and again in the playoffs. When he’s near 100% this defense rises from doormat to respectable. DE Dwight Freeney is the highest paid defensive player for a reason, a dominating pass rusher who still ranks as among the quickest off the snap. Opposing offenses alter their blocking to account for Freeney, though his numbers sharply declined last year and he’s perhaps past his peak. His opposite DE, Robert Mathis, is a capable pass rusher as well. PK Adam Vinatieri is a proven clutch performer who still gets excellent distance on kickoffs. Head Coach Tony Dungy’s manner and style fit this team perfectly, and the team kept the coaching staff largely intact after winning the Super Bowl, no small feat.
What I dislike: Losing 4 starters, including both CBs, off a defense that had major issues stopping the run and gave up too many big plays is not going to help. The defense is woefully undersized across the board, and it’s not the super-speedy group that most teams who run the Cover 2 scheme like to have. The run defense was dreadful most of the season, and they lost arguably the best gap containment guy on the line in Reagor. None of the LBs are any more than serviceable starters, though Rob Morris proved he’s indispensable late in the year. In their scheme the DL must control the line and generate pass rush, and other than the outstanding Dwight Freeney, this is perhaps the worst DL in the NFL. The DT package is certainly the worst of any team playing a 4-3 defense. Inexperience abounds in the secondary, and if S Bob Sanders misses lots of time once again the Colts defense will rank near the bottom in total defense.
The somewhat surprising retirement of LT Tarik Glenn is a big blow to the offense. Though Glenn was not an elite talent, he did a great job keeping Manning comfortable in the pocket and getting to the second level in run blocking. When a QB cannot trust his blindside tackle he’s not going to be as effective, and though I think rookie Tony Ugoh is going to be a good one, that trust is going to have to be earned quickly for the offense not to suffer. There is some question as to whether Addai can handle the rigors of 300+ carries, and the rest of the RB corps is unproven, underwhelming, and undersized. Addai is the only RB on the roster to ever carry the ball in an NFL game. The team also lacks dynamic punt and kick return games, and K Adam Vinatieri lost about 3 yards of range off his FG after moving into a dome, which does not portend well for the future. I still wouldn’t bet against him making a game winner though.
A larger question is how the Colts will react to finally winning the Super Bowl after so many heartbreaking near-misses. Will they still have the same fire, or will a sense of accomplishment and complacency set in? I don’t think that will happen to a close-knit team under Tony Dungy, but it has happened too often to other teams to not be a concern here. At minimum, the Colts can no longer play the underdog card or the climbing the mountain strategy that Dungy favors.
Best case: The offense leads the league in scoring and consistently gives the defense enough cushion to take some risks and make more big plays; the new starters fill in capably across the board, particularly Ugoh; the run defense rises up to rank in the 20s; they salt away the division title early and rest up for a playoff run tat culminates in a repeat Super Bowl title.
Worst case: The run defense stays horrible and the new blood in the secondary fails to make plays, forcing the offense to have to outscore teams every week; the sense of accomplishment impacts too many key players; Marvin Harrison keeps slipping faster than anticipated and Gonzalez isn’t ready to help; the offensive line deteriorates after losing Glenn; an injury to Manning is that which cannot be spoken of--they might not win a game without him. Having to win in Weeks 16 or 17 to solidify a playoff berth would be a major letdown.
Prediction: It’s a good thing their offense can light it up, because the defense is undersized and underwhelming. Expect a lot of 35-27 games, and the Colts will win a lot more of them than they lose. They should comfortably win the weak AFC South, but the drive to win every game at all costs probably won’t be so strong now that they’ve won the ultimate prize. The Colts will finish 12-4 with another division title and the potential to win every playoff game, though I don’t see a repeat Super Bowl title. |
