| Jeff Risdon. 23rd July, 2007 - 8:26 pm
 Last season: 10-6, lost NFC Championship game
Coming: LB Brian Simmons, K Olindo Mare, CB Jason David, WR David Patten, S Kevin Kaesviharn, DT Kendrick Clancy
Going: WR Joe Horn, K John Carney, TE Ernie Conwell
Key Rookies: CB Usama Young, WR Robert Meacham
What I like: The Saints return 21 starters from a unit that shocked the world and made it one step short of the Super Bowl. QB Drew Brees is as accurate as they come, and the offense gelled around his leadership and moxie. The RB pairing of Deuce McAlister and Reggie Bush is quite potent and allows the Saints to sport all sorts of formations and packages that create matchup problems for defenses. With rookie Antonio Pittman their depth at RB is incredible, and each back brings something different to the table. The OL brings back all 5 starters from a unit that played much better than the sum of its parts. LT Jammal Brown and RG Jahri Evans are both youngsters growing into elite talent at their positions, and C Jeff Faine is one of the better all-around players at his spot. WR Marques Colston could have been Rookie of the Year, and a full offseason working with the first team will only make him better. There is loads of speed with rookie Meacham, Devery Henderson, Bush, and Patten. Every WR on the squad has very good hands and runs strong routes, and Brees excels at spreading the ball around to keep all those hands happy.
Their DE tandem of Will Smith and Charles Grant is perhaps the NFL’s best. Both are capable of chalking up double-digit sacks, and not many ends are better against the run than Smith. The DT rotation is improved with the signing of Clancy, though none of the guys do more than they are asked. The secondary was the sore point last season, but the Saints aggressively addressed it with the signing of CB Jason David and drafting promising Usama Young. Roman Harper returns from an injury that derailed a very impressive beginning to his rookie year. Kaesviharn brings a knack for creating turnovers and a solid veteran presence. Brian Simmons brings better playmaking ability and veteran experience to an already solid LB corps. The overall depth all over the field is enviable if unspectacular. Adding Olindo Mare in place of John Carney is a slight upgrade. The Saints have as many as 4 players who have Pro Bowl potential as kick returners.
What I dislike: The Saints finished last season with a negative turnover differential, and despite adding some needed secondary help the unit still improve. The lack of a true #1 CB or a fearsome LB means opposing offenses can get into, and stay, in rhythm for extended periods. While the offense is certainly high-powered, they will turn the ball over more than most teams based on their go-for-it style. There is no clear-cut #1 WR or proven go-to guy in the passing offense despite all the solid options. As many as 3 offensive linemen might have had career years in 2006 that will be difficult to repeat, and the depth behind them is almost completely untested. With their success last season comes the weight of increased expectations and the target on their backs from their opponents. Their schedule is tough at the start and finish, and they also have the disadvantage of playing 5 preseason games. No team that has played more than the normal 4 preseason games in a season has won a playoff game since 1988.
Best case: You cannot really ask for much more to go right that the 2006 version of the Saints. Adding a few 2nd tier free agents to shore up thin spots and having an improved (on paper) secondary cut down on the big plays addressed the weaknesses is all the coaching staff can ask for. This team has the ability to win the Super Bowl. Winning their last two games in the regular season against perhaps the other top 2 NFC contenders (PHI, @CHI) would be a great springboard for postseason confidence and success.
Worst case: An injury to Brees, who has suffered two bad arm injuries in the last two years, would almost certainly unravel the team. An unexpected early loss or two saps all the goodwill and strong chemistry that propelled the Saints last year. The OL regresses, the new additions to the secondary don’t make a significant difference, and they miss Joe Horn at WR more than they anticipated. Still, barring a rash of key injuries the Saints are no worse than 8-8 and battling for a Wild Card berth.
Prediction: This is the team to beat in the NFC, the best team on paper in the conference. It should be an exciting, high-scoring season in NOLA, with the Saints winning the NFC South with an 11-5 record and going deep in the playoffs. |
