| Jeff Risdon. 17th July, 2007 - 3:10 pm
 Last season: 5-11, last in NFC East
Coming: LB London Fletcher-Baker, CB Fred Smoot, CB David Macklin, S Omar Stoutmire, CB Jerametrius Butler,
Going: G Derrick Dockery, WR David Patten, S Troy Vincent, LB Warrick Holdman, S Mike Rumph
Key Rookies: S Laron Landry, TE Tyler Ecker
What I like: Not many teams feature a better 1-2 punch at RB than Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts. Portis is an elite back, and Betts showed he’s fully capable of being a strong feature back when Portis was injured last year. QB Jason Campbell kept improving the more he played, and he’s only going to benefit from a full offseason as the #1 QB. He’s unflappable in the pocket and has shown great arm strength and leadership. WR Santana Moss and TE Chris Cooley are both in the upper echelon at their positions, and both have good chemistry with Campbell. The bookend tackles of Jon Jansen and Chris Samuels are as good an all-around pairing as any in the NFL, and the Skins have quality players at C and RG.
The team should be much stronger at LB in 2007 with the addition of Fletcher and the maturation of Rocky McIntosh, who played quite well late as a rookie. Moving Lemar Marshall to the nickel LB plays to his strengths. Bringing Fred Smoot back and adding Butler and Macklin gives the secondary much more potential and playmaking, though top starting CB Shawn Springs could be a cap casualty before the season starts. Landry is ready to start and challenge for Rookie of the Year, and Sean Taylor made the Pro Bowl at the other safety spot. Derrick Frost is a solid punter, and the punt and kick return teams are above average and able to make a difference in close games.
What I dislike: Other than at RB and perhaps CB, the Skins probably have a lower overall depth of talent than any team in the NFL; their backups at almost every other position would not appear on many other 2-deep depth charts. They woefully lack size at WR, and the #2 and #3 WRs (Antwan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd) both are coming off lousy seasons and don’t seem to be good fits. Replacing Dockery at LG is a major question on an otherwise strong line. Campbell showed signs of being a solid QB, but he’s still young and needs lots of work on his reads and progressions. His backup, Mark Brunell, looked washed up last year and is coming off major shoulder surgery.
The pass rush was inept last season, providing just 19 sacks and registering QB pressures on less than 30% of all pass attempts (the NFL average is 48%). Nothing they did this offseason will help, though there’s almost no way there won’t be some improvement. Sean Taylor’s Pro Bowl appearance was not earned on the field, and he must make more plays and be more responsible in coverage. Both he and Marcus Washington must develop into the playmakers the defense sorely lacked in 2006. There’s not a lot of physically imposing presences on the defense, and their schedule is chock full of teams with physical, aggressive blocking schemes and power running ability. The defensive line is probably the weakest in the NFL, though they were not helped at all by an unimaginative scheme and poor backing. This team goes through kickers like costume changes at a Gwen Stefani concert.
Best case: Campbell emerges as a franchise QB and the versatile running game remains among the NFL’s best; the defense finds a scheme and personnel that can reliably rush the passer and force turnovers; someone besides Moss steps up at WR and Moss remains both healthy and motivated; the revolving door at K ends with a good season from Sean Suisham; Joe Gibbs proves why he’s in the Hall of Fame already as a Head Coach and the team feasts on a pretty weak early schedule to build momentum.
Worst case: Campbell isn’t ready to take the next step in progression, and his enigmatic WR corps fails to help him; the defense once again cannot apply pressure or make big plays; the new additions in the secondary don’t make the needed impact; injuries on the OL or at DE would be devastating; a slow start causes Joe Gibbs to either quit or lose the team.
Prediction: The starters have enough talent to make a quick turnaround. Last year the Skins set an NFL record for their inability to force turnovers, and the defense was 30th in QB pressures. The two quickest ways to turn losses into wins are to improve those two areas, and Washington has enough ability to dramatically improve in both areas. But the lack of depth, the inexperience at QB, and shaky coaching chemistry (the result of too many chefs and not enough waiters) provide a real thin margin for error. If it all clicks quickly the Skins could make a run at 9 wins, a Wild Card, and be a tough playoff out. But a disappointing 7-9 finish and lots of coaching changes next summer is far more likely. |
