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| Jeff Risdon. 12th July, 2007 - 4:29 pm
 Last season: 7-9, 3rd in AFC East
Coming: G Derrick Dockery, T Langston Walker, G Jason Whittle, CB Jason Webster
Going: LB London Fletcher-Baker, LB Takeo Spikes, RB Willis McGahee, G Chris Villareal, G Tutan Reyes, QB Kelly Holcomb
Key Rookies: LB Paul Posluszny, RB Marshawn Lynch, RB Dwayne Wright
What I like: The late-season improvement the Bills showed was largely the product of their younger players making strides and coming together as a team. QB J.P. Losman showed the needed maturity and ability to rally his teammates around him. He stopped forcing the ball and showed much better accuracy and pocket awareness. Lee Evans stepped forward as a legit #1 WR, a big-play receiver who commands lots of defensive respect. His fellow wideouts (Peerless Price, Roscoe Parrish, Josh Reed) found their roles and provide a deep, if slightly underwhelming, corps of targets with whom Losman feels comfortable.
The youngsters in the back 7 of the defense represent as talented a youthful group as any in football. Rookie LB Paul Posluszny is ready to start, and with Angelo Crowell and Keith Ellison the Bills have great speed and exuberance at LB. Though they lost #1 CB Nate Clements, they do have a solid #2 in Terrence McGee and good promise in Kiwaukee Thomas and Ashton Youboty, and newcomer Webster provides a veteran rudder. The safeties, Ko Simpson and Donte Whitner, both played well as rookies and complement one another very nicely. Buffalo sports several high-motor, solid all-around D-linemen who generally provide a strong pass rush from many angles, led by Aaron Schobel. There is solid depth along the DL, though they lack size and top-end talent inside. P Brian Moorman handles poor weather as well as anyone, and the Bills have excellent PR and KR units.
What I dislike: They lost all the veteran leadership on the defense, even though both Spikes and Fletcher-Baker were clearly on the downside. There is a good lot of young talent, but much of it is unproven and needs seasoning and cohesion. It?s asking a lot of a 2nd-year safety to handle the defensive calls, even if Donte Whitner is quite talented. The defense as a whole traded bulk for speed, and they will struggle against power running games and on short-yardage plays. They also lost their premier RB in McGahee and are going to replace him with a boom/bust rookie in Lynch and underwhelming vet Anthony Thomas. Lots of shuffling on the OL was needed, but they reached for a barely adequate starter in Langston Walker. The top FA signing, Dockery, has loads of size and talent but doesn?t always show it. The other G position has yet to be decided, and that almost never winds up being a positive during the season. This unit needs time to blend together and is depending on journeyman C Melvin Fowler to make line calls and provide leadership.
While they do have talent at WR behind Evans, they lack a true #2 wideout, and TE Robert Royal offers little in the passing game as well. The stinging rejection by DT Darwin Walker, acquired in a trade and then refusing to report, sends a bad message to the youngsters about how the rest of the league sees this team. The backup QBs have combined to throw 33 NFL passes and there is no vet for Losman to turn to for guidance, a bigger negative than you might think.
Best case: All the young talent in the defense continues to improve rapidly and the unit overcomes its lack of size to provide even average run support. The pass rush stays strong, and the DBs create turnovers. The OL congeals to be better than the sum of its parts. Losman continues to play like a franchise QB, and the dropoff from McGahee to Lynch is negligible. The special teams remain an asset and control the field position battle.
Worst case: The OL struggles to open holes and protect Losman. The young LBs show lots of growing pains and don?t help improve the run defense. Lacking leadership, the defense doesn?t progress as expected. Losman tries to do too much as he did early in his career, and his WRs don?t help him out. Their first 6 games are as brutal as any team faces: DEN, @PIT, @NE, NYJ, DAL, BAL--all teams with potential for winning playoff games. If they don?t win more than one of those, or God forbid lose them all, the young team could implode around the emotionless coaching style of Dick Jauron.
Prediction: Decent young nucleus with some premier talent in key spots, but an awful schedule and widespread lack of experience and size on defense renders this a long season for the Bills. They might be the last team to post a win, and they?ll likely joust with the Dolphins for last place in the AFC East. I see a 5-11 record; though with a good start to provide momentum the Bills have a shot at .500.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@realgm.com |
