| Jeff Risdon. 5th September, 2006 - 4:00 am
 Last season: 13-3, lost Super Bowl
Coming: LB Julian Peterson, OL Tom Ashworth, WR Nate Burleson, TE Will Heller, DT Russ Davis
Going: G Steve Hutchinson, WR Joe Jurevicius, CB Andre Dyson, S Marquand Manuel
Rookies of note: DE Darryl Tapp, CB Kelly Jennings, P Ryan Plackmeier, G Rob Sims
What I like: The best team in the NFC in 2005 lost only two full-time starters, and brought in helpful veteran talent to fill what few holes they had. The defense was the biggest reason they broke away from the pack, and it will keep them there this season. LBs Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill were both excellent versus the run as rookies in 2005, and joining them is Julian Peterson, an exceptional blitzer and coverage LB. The defensive front is strong, versatile, and deep. DE Grant Wistrom is a whipping boy for lots of pundits, but he’s better than average at his position and fits perfectly in the locker room. The return of S Ken Hamlin from injury gives them the much-needed playmaker in the secondary. His range and ball hawking skills will help CBs Marcus Trufant and Kelly Herndon, who are decent in coverage but better against the run. The run defense on this team is second to none, and they get enough of a pass rush from their front four and the timely blitz to be one of the top 3 overall defenses in the league. Oh yeah, they have a great offense too. RB Shaun Alexander just set the NFL record for rushing TDs in a season. He’s also a great receiver and a much-improved blocker. QB Matt Hasselbeck is accurate, tough, mixes in lots of receivers to keep defenses honest, and he reads defenses as quickly and accurately as anyone. The OL still has future Hall of Famer Walter Jones at LT, and he’s still near the top of all pass blockers. The Ashworth signing and the emergence of rookie G Rob Sims, who earned his starting job with stellar play, gives the line depth and versatility, even without Pro Bowl G Steve Hutchinson. FB Mack Strong is the best blocking FB in the game. There’s lots of speed at WR, and Darrell Jackson is a special player when he’s healthy. All the coaches and coordinators return, which means continuity and familiarity for the players
What I dislike: Losing a mauler like Hutchinson cannot be underestimated. He’s an amazing hole opener who often blocked more than one defender on running plays. They’re starting a rookie at RG and a 2nd year guy (Chris Spencer) who has never snapped a ball in the NFL at C. Those guys did beat out some capable veterans for those spots, but it’s a different game in January than August. The WRs have skill, but they also have issues. Darrell Jackson is seemingly always bothered by nagging injuries, yet he’s still managed to drop more balls than any WR in the 2000s; Nate Burleson looked great alongside Randy Moss but very ordinary without him. The top two TEs are both out with injury for at least a few weeks, and Jerramy Stevens’ return is unknown. He’s a big loss in the passing game if he cannot return to near his 2005 level. The CBs are okay in pass coverage but beatable, especially when the opposing QB has time to look around. The punting chores fall to a rookie, and the punt and kick return teams are below average. Their NFC West divisional foes are all improved enough that the Seahawks might drop a game or two, something they did not do in 2005.
Best case: Super Bowl champs, home field advantage all the way through the NFC playoffs. Shaun Alexander wins another MVP, the run defense and scoring defense are top 5, the passing attack balanced and effective.
Worst case: Unless injuries strike real hard, it’s very difficult to see this team be any worse than about 10 wins. But they do have the Madden cover curse and the Super Bowl loser curse to contend with, and both are real and nasty. A confluence of curses would make the pass rush anemic, exposing a thin and mediocre pass coverage secondary; the OL much less a force in run blocking; a rash of turnovers and special teams gaffes; an off year for K Josh Brown, and the WRs leading the league in drops. It’s highly unlikely, but so was the fall of the Falcons and Eagles when they faced the same confluence of curses.
Prediction: They’re probably not quite as good as last year, but they’re good enough to win their division by at least 5 games once again. The NFC road to the Super Bowl will go through Seattle, led by an outstanding defense and an offense that plays with a lead very well. They escape the confluence of curses and finish 13-3, and make a return visit to the Super Bowl. |
