| Jeff Risdon. 31st August, 2006 - 11:57 pm
 Last season: 3-13
Coming: QB Drew Brees, C Jeff Faine, LB Tommy Polley, WR Chris Horn, SS Omar Stoutmire, TE Mark Campbell, LB Scott Fujita, LB Mark Simoneau, DT Hollis Thomas
Going: C LeCharles Bentley, QB Aaron Brooks, DE Darren Howard, T Wayne Gandy, LB Sedrick Hodge, CB Fakhir Brown, WR Donte Stallworth, WR Az Hakim, G Kendall Jaycox
Rookies of note: RB Reggie Bush, WR Marques Colston, S Roman Harper, OL Zack Streif, G Jahri Evans
What I like: Brees is a significant upgrade at QB, and his steadiness and affability will be just as welcome as his accuracy. The RB duo of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush is very potent; both are premium weapons and threats to score every time they touch the ball. The Saints have a pair of young DEs, Will Smith and Charles Grant, that are both excellent pass rushers and steady overall players. The starting CBs are pretty good in coverage, and the safety positions are both upgraded, though that’s not saying much. WR Joe Horn should return to near Pro Bowl form after an injury-wasted 2005, and the Saints have depth and skill at TE. Reggie Bush will see time playing in the slot, which greatly helps the passing game. LT Jammal Brown was outstanding as a rookie last season and is already an upper echelon run blocker, and both rookie OL have impressed so far. The Saints have an excellent punting game and K John Carney still gets it done form inside 45 yards. The emotional impact of returning to New Orleans and having a home, plus playing for the suffering fans, is tough to gauge but should provide focus and steady motivation.
What I dislike: There are still some major holes on this team. They have probably upgraded a little at LB, but still will start 3 guys that should never be more than situational subs. There is absolutely zero depth at CB behind the two decent starters. The #2 WR (Colston) is a 7th round rookie converted from TE. That speaks more about how lousy the other WRs behind him have been than it does for how well he might play. It makes the recent trade of Stallworth (for LB Simoneau) all the more baffling in terms of on-field production. The OL is heavily reliant on 3 starters that all have limited ability. While the line shouldn’t be bad, it’s not a strength, particularly the right side. The Saints get very little from their interior DL despite having high-profile players there. Brees is coming off a wrenching shoulder injury and has not looked sharp in preseason. They could start as many as 5 rookies and 4 others who haven’t been first-teamers before. This is another team going with a young rookie Head Coach, two brand new coordinators, and lots of positional coaching changes, none of which are a recipe for short-term success. Getting their first two games on the road, even against non-contenders like CLE and GB, really blunts any positive momentum from returning home to NOLA.
Best case: Brees is healthy and some WR besides Joe Horn catches more than 35 passes, McAllister and Bush enjoy sharing the load and wreak havoc on defenses, the DEs both notch 10+ sacks, the DBs step up and hide the inadequacy of the LBs. The emotion and karma of playing in New Orleans raises the overall strength and keeps spirits high, and the Saints find ways to win close games against very strong division rivals to scrape out 7 wins.
Worst case: 2005. They could go 0-16, lose every game by 14+ points, and it would still be better than last year. They will remain among the 5 worst teams in the NFL if Brees struggles, the OL doesn’t gel quickly, the DBs (particularly CB Mike McKenzie) don’t cover well or provide much run support.
Prediction: It’s so politically incorrect to say anything negative about the Saints after all this franchise has been through in the past 12 months. But the bottom line is that this team resembles the second season of an expansion franchise: some very good talent in some key spots, but sorely lacking quality at others and having almost no proven depth anywhere. They’re dangerous enough to pull a few surprises, but drawing the tough NFC East and AFC North on the schedule makes anything more than 4-12 a major (and pleasant) surprise. |
