| Jeff Risdon. 30th August, 2006 - 6:43 pm
 Last season: 11-5, won AFC North, lost 1st round playoff game
Coming: DT Sam Adams, S Dexter Jackson, QB Anthony Wright, WR/KR Antonio Chatman
Going: QB Jon Kitna, WR Kevin Walter, S Kim Herring, TE Matt Schobel
Rookies of note: LB Ahmad Brooks, DT Domata Peko, CB Jonathan Joseph
What I like: Offensively this team has almost no weaknesses. QB Carson Palmer is no worse than the 3rd best QB in the game, and he’s only getting better. The WR duo of Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh work great together and both are legit big play makers. There is decent talent, albeit a little immature, behind them as well. RB Rudi Johnson is one of the best runners in the NFL, a lock for 1400 yards and 12+ TDs, plus he never fumbles. The OL is also top 3 quality, and most of that line is playing in contract years, which ensures hungry, determined play. K Shayne Graham is very solid and has great range. The defense has loads of young, fast talent. LBs David Pollack, Odell Thurman, and Brian Simmons form a strong core. The addition of man-mountain Sam Adams will help shore up the interior run defense. They have two veteran CBs (Deltha O’Neal and Tory James) that excel in coverage; no team shut down opposing #1 WRs or RBs in the passing game better than the Bengals. Many of their key players are just hitting their prime, and they clearly enjoy playing together under Head Coach Marvin Lewis, a defensive tactical genius.
What I dislike: There’s not a lot to point at and say, “The Bengals need help” here. Carson Palmer is coming back off a serious knee injury, but the Bengals are prudent enough to not risk permanent damage by rushing him back, and he’s looked very good in practice and in his first preseason game. The Achilles heel last season was stopping the run, particularly draw plays and misdirections between the tackles. Sam Adams will help, but he’s past his prime, and the surrounding DL is either very green or very replaceable. The Bengals led the league in forced turnovers last season, a highly difficult feat to repeat. Without being +3 or more in turnovers the Bengals were a .500 team. The biggest negative, or rather potential downfall, is the turbulent offseason police record that several Bengals accumulated. LB Thurman is suspended the first 4 games for substance abuse violation, and he will be missed. Five Bengals were arrested in a span of 11 weeks, and that doesn’t count rookie LB Brooks, who was booted from Virginia for multiple behavioral infractions. All that negative attention and questionable character can torpedo a locker room and scuttle team unity. The schedule is significantly more difficult, and this year the Bengals won’t have the advantage of underdog status. The first 6 games are @KC, archrival CLE, @PIT, NE, @TB, and CAR, and the final 3 are @IND, @DEN, and PIT. That’s 8 games against Super Bowl-Caliber teams. Last season they played just one team that won a playoff game.
Best case: Palmer’s knee is fine, and the offense puts up huge numbers consistently. The run defense improves to average or better, and the DBs continue to play exceptional in coverage. The turnover margin stays somewhere above +15 for the season. All the offseason arrests and adversity only unite an already tight unit, and they channel all the negativity into their on-field prowess.
Worst case: The tougher schedule bites them early, and the family atmosphere breaks down into a finger-pointing fiasco. Palmer’s knee gives way and new backup Anthony Wright shows why he’s attained journeyman status. The run defense again fails to control the middle of the field, and the pass rush is forced to come from blitzing multiple LBs and DBs.
Prediction: So long as Palmer’s knee is fine and they don’t lose more than 2 of their first 4 games, this team is as good as any in the AFC and should challenge for the Super Bowl. I’m a firm believer in the “adversity builds team unity” philosophy the Bengals have bought into this offseason, so long as the police blotter stops. Without Palmer at more than 85% of last season, they will be lucky to limp to 8 wins. The tougher schedule means they might not win any more games than the 11 they did in 2005, but this team has the ability to win every playoff game it plays, and it might be playing in 3 or 4. |
