| Jeff Risdon. 28th July, 2006 - 4:27 am
 Coming: QB Daunte Culpepper, QB Joey Harrington, CB Will Allen, LB Sedrick Hodge, LT LJ Shelton, WR Kelly Campbell, CB Andre Goodman, FB Fred Beasley, S Deke Cooper
Going: QB Gus Frerotte, S Tebucky Jones, CB Sam Madison, RB Ricky Williams, OT Stockar McDougle, WR Bryan Gilmore, CB Reggie Howard, S Lance Schulters, QB Sage Rosenfels
Rookies of note: WR Derek Hagan, CB/S Jason Allen
What I like: They won their last 6 games in 2005, displaying a balanced offense and forcing almost 3 turnovers per game. They bring back a veteran defensive front that has played effectively together for years, often dominant. New defensive coordinator Dom Capers has produced tremendous results with less talent than he’s got here. Adding QB Daunte Culpepper brings a dynamic playmaker to the offense, if he can return from a devastating knee injury. Dealing Sam Madison for Will Allen is a positive in terms of youth and scheme fit. Second year RB Ronnie Brown had a strong rookie season and is highly motivated to prove he’s an elite back. WR Chris Chambers emerged as a major threat, and the Dolphins added capable complementary WRs in Campbell and rookie Hagan, though neither will threaten the solid Marty Booker for the other starting spot. DE Jason Taylor, MLB Zach Thomas, and young LB Channing Crowder are all Pro Bowl-caliber impact defenders, and there is depth all over the defense. P Donnie Jones led the league in net average, a tribute to their strong coverage units.
What I dislike: The 6-game streak at the end is deceptive; only one was against a playoff team (New England) and the run was keyed in no small part by departed druggie Ricky Williams. The secondary was a disappointment last season and they merely shuffled bodies rather than upgrading talent. Case in point: Andre Goodman. The Dolphins are depending on him to be the #2 or nickel CB, yet he couldn’t cut it as the #4 CB in a lousy Detroit secondary last season. There’s not a good tackler in the back 8 beyond Thomas and Crowder. So much pressure is heaped upon Culpepper’s knee. His speed, fearlessness, and agility were what made him a great QB, and none of that can be tested before the season starts. With their nondescript OL, one that is far superior at run blocking than pass protection, he’ll need to be 100% from Day 1. New backup Joey Harrington is an upgrade over Sage Rosenfels, but he’s buckled badly under any sort of pressure—and the stakes are far higher this season in Miami than his Detroit tenure. The defense is indeed deep and talented upfront, but it’s also very old: the top 6 DL are all over 30, as is Thomas. In the Miami heat and with their physical style, holding them together and effective is tenuously optimistic. RB Brown significantly declined as the carries piled up, and this year he’s the only capable RB on the roster. He’s never been a solo feature back, and he’s also not good in pass blocking or reading blitzes, which are not good qualities when your QB is both returning from injury and favors the deep ball. Their schedule is markedly tougher in 2006, especially following their bye in Week 8.
Best case: Culpepper is at least 90% from Week 1 and returns to his prior MVP-esque self. Brown proves capable of handling the rushing duties and piles up yards behind a line that keeps improving. Chambers continues to emerge as a star, and TE Randy McMichael reverts to being a strong weapon. The vets on defense stay healthy and strong, and Taylor continues to provide great pass rush. The secondary figures out how to cover TEs and slot WRs, and the unit improves its tackling and pressure. They hit their bye week at 5-2 or better and don’t lose momentum when the tougher part of the schedule kicks in.
Worst case: Joey Harrington takes more snaps than Culpepper. The new additions at WR provide little. McMichael has to stay in pass protection to help a shaky line instead of being a downfield threat. Ronnie Brown wears down again as the carries increase, and none of his backups steps up. If either Taylor or Thomas, or God forbid both, show decline due to age or injury the defense will greatly suffer. K Olindo Mare keeps missing 37 yarders and booting kickoffs out of bounds. The secondary remains a porous group that doesn’t make plays or stop 3rd and longs, last in 2005 in that category by a pretty wide margin for such a good front 7. They are going to be favored by at least a touchdown in 5 of their first 7 games; not winning all of those makes for another long winter on the beach. Even though Head Coach Nick Saban surprisingly impressed me, both last season and during the scouting Combine, he’s the Larry Brown of football: always looking for his next job and finding reasons to be unhappy.
Prediction: With so many key questions involving such talented players, the Dolphins are a bit of a tough read. No question they could challenge for 10-11 wins and a division title, but it’s also highly conceivable they trip and fall over the lofty expectations. I’m not sold on Culpepper’s health or ability to instantly pick up a complex new offense, but there’s enough around him to carry them early. This team will be made or broken during the three weeks following their bye, with games at Chicago and home against Kansas City and Minnesota. If they win 2 out of those 3, they’re likely going to be playing for a playoff spot in Week 17 at Indy. If they drop 2 or all 3, they could realistically not win more than one more game all season. I’m inclined to go with the latter, and the Dolphins finish 8-8.
Jeff Risdon's other 2006 Team Previews
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams |
