Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
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I recently set out to do an initial 2013 mock draft. In the process, I came across an interesting problem: who is going to draft this (very preliminarily) awesome and talented group of likely Top 20 quarterbacks?
The QB talent pool for next year looks very promising. While there is no Andrew Luck, no lead pipe lock to be a franchise QB and #1 overall pick, the group appears deeper and stronger than any recent class at the same point of the year. USC's Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson from Arkansas, Virginia Tech's Logan Thomas, Tyler Bray from Tennessee, and perhaps West Virginia's Geno Smith and Georgia's Aaron Murray could all be first round candidates if everyone declares. Barkley, Thomas, and Wilson all carry #1 overall potential. Bray isn't far behind and Smith might have as much upside as any of them. That's a lot of top shelf talent to tantalize NFL teams.
And therein lays the problem. Unless a team unexpectedly bottoms out (see the 2011 Colts), almost none of the teams that figure to be picking in the top-10 desperately need a new QB. Many of them have spent a top-40 pick in the last four years on a quarterback, and taking another one is a giant admission of failure. For those nine teams that have done so in the last two years, it's almost impossible to justify throwing in the towel already.
I decided to break down the likelihood of a team drafting a 1st round quarterback in 2013, and they fit into three basic groups. There are teams that have spent a top 50 pick or significant free agent dollars on a quarterback in the last three years, the teams that have veteran legit franchise QBs, the teams that have a QB place but could look to upgrade, and the teams that look like they will clearly look for draft help.
The first group is virtually locked out from taking another 1st round QB so quickly, though a GM and/or coaching change leaves the door cracked. Even though the price tag has come down, it's still significant and it negatively impacts other areas of the team that might need even more attention. Teams in this group:
St. Louis (Bradford)
Carolina (Newton)
Tennessee (Locker)
Indianapolis (Luck)
Cleveland (Weeden)
Miami (Tannehill)
Jacksonville (Gabbert)
Oakland (the Palmer trade)
Washington (Griffin)
Cincinnati (Dalton)
Minnesota (Ponder)
Seattle (Flynn signing)
San Francisco (Kaepernick)
Tim Tebow also qualifies, which technically puts the Jets in this category, though they fit better in another one.
Next come the teams with established veterans playing at a playoff-caliber level. This group would appear to have no interest in spending a first rounder on a QB, not even to groom as a successor, which is an antiquated notion that is quickly dying. Teams that fit here:
New England (Brady)
Green Bay (Rodgers)
San Diego (Rivers)
New York Giants (Eli Manning)
Pittsburgh (Roethlisberger)
Dallas (Romo)
Philadelphia (Vick)
Atlanta (Ryan)
Detroit (Stafford)
Chicago (Cutler)
Teams that have veterans in place but could be looking to upgrade or replace an impending free agent:
Houston (Schaub)
Baltimore (Flacco)
Kansas City (Cassel)
Buffalo (Fitzpatrick)
Arizona (Kolb)
New York Jets (Sanchez/Tebow)
New Orleans (Brees)
Denver (Manning)
Tampa Bay (Freeman)
The teams in this last group present some intriguing options.
Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco are leaders of 2011 playoff teams whose contracts expire after this season. It's doubtful either Houston or Baltimore will simply let them walk, but taking a first rounder and letting them sit while the vets play out a season under the franchise tag is not unrealistic.
Cassel, Fitzpatrick and Kolb all have big contracts that more likely suit their teams to drafting a long-term project, unless any of them flop under playoff expectations (right or wrong) in 2012.
Drew Brees is an unsigned franchise player at this point, and if he chooses to sit out the year--a more viable prospect than anyone likes to admit--the Saints go from maybe needing an eventual successor to desperately needing a new QB.
Denver signed Peyton Manning and drafted Brock Osweiler in the late 2nd round within the last two months, but if Manning gets hurt again they could be in the mix.
Josh Freeman was a surefire keeper in his first two years but badly regressed in his third; if he doesn't mesh well with the new coaching staff and continues to make asinine decisions with the ball, Tampa jumps to the top of the "needing QB" list and will probably be drafting where they can get one without having to trade.
Should Michael Vick get hurt (again), the Eagles go to the front of the line, ditto Romo in Dallas or a regression to the norm by Alex Smith in San Francisco and a flop by Kaepernick. All of those are reaches at this point, though I could see any or all of them happening.
The most intriguing team is the New York Jets. They inexplicably signed Mark Sanchez to a huge contract extension that puts his cap hits at between $10.3M and $15.6M over the next four years, a tremendous burden that ensures he will be a Jet. They signed Tim Tebow for various purposes, among them challenging the largely ineffective Sanchez for the QB job. But the entire Jets franchise is on the hot seat, from Sanchez to a wildly overrated defense to Rex Ryan to GM Mike Tannebaum. If they don't make the playoffs, and sports books have them pegged as the 9th best team in the AFC according to early season win total odds, there figures to be a massive house cleaning that leaves their future very wide open and variable.
At least four quarterbacks are going to be first round picks next April, likely all in the top 20, but projecting where those talented youngsters will land right now is a true exercise in random guesswork. The oversaturation of young quarterbacks, the reduced 1st round salaries, a growing dearth of middle-aged veteran backups, and so many coaching and management changes both recent and future make it near impossible to try and project what teams will go after Logan Thomas, Matt Barkley & friends in the 2013 NFL Draft.
