RealGM Football: Hang Time - Super Bowl Forecast

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Super Bowl Forecast

Authored by Jeff Risdon - 1st February, 2012 - 6:55 pm

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Rather than delving into the minutiae surrounding every little detail of the Patriots-Giants matchup, which you can find on any of the overflowing number of sports talk radio or television networks, I'm going to keep the pick concise. This is the week of the year where I avoid sports radio and television as much as possible. I loathe the relentless build up for the Super Bowl. The media overkill makes me wish the game was already played, and by many of the items I've seen this year it apparently already has been.

The previous Super Bowl between the Giants and Patriots was an instant classic, one of the most dramatic sporting events in my 39+ years on this planet. There is this overwhelming sentiment that because these teams are pretty evenly matched and offensively oriented that this meeting will be even better. I beg to differ. Other than The Godfather and Iron Maiden's choice of singers, nothing is ever better the second time.

Don't get me wrong; I think this is a very compelling matchup that could (should?) produce an entertaining and closely competitive game. But it seems much of the populous, certainly those that work for ESPN, are expecting another David Tyree helmet catch moment paired with a Mike Jones-like goal line stop on the final play, maybe after a Sean Payton-inspired surprise onside kick and a botched call on a sack/fumble mixed in for good measure. Roll all that into a giant stuffed burrito of football drama and excellence.

That is what we are being groomed to expect with Super Bowl 46. Try not to bite the burrito! Just sit back, munch on some nachos, and enjoy the last football game before September. I think you will see the Giants eke out a 33-28 victory over the Patriots. The Giants have more ways to overcome mistakes than the Patriots, and I like their defensive front to protect a lead.

I find the prop bets wildly entertaining. Here's my stab at some of the props:

First touchdown: I like Hakeem Nicks at 15/1

More passing yards: I'll take Eli Manning at +110 with 347 yards to Brady's 323.

Who gets more receiving yards, Cruz or Welker: I'll take Welker to get 129 to Cruz's 97. One book gives Welker +5.5. Candy from a baby...

More rushing yards, BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Ahmad Bradshaw: Law Firm, getting a bonus 8.5 yards. I think the Bradshaw injury is being underplayed.

Longest play from scrimmage +/- 52.5 yards: I'll go under.

Length of Kelly Clarkson singing the National Anthem: Gimmie the over on 1:34 seconds from the beginning of "Oh" to the end of "brave". She's a good choice to sing it.

Number of times Peyton Manning is shown: Easiest money you'll make all year, take the over at 3.5. You'll be able to cash your ticket by the time Madonna hits the stage.

What will Madonna wear as she takes the stage: I'll take light action on a NFL jersey at 11/1. My prediction: She doffs the jersey quickly and winds up in an outfit inappropriate for exotic dancers half her age.

Number of times the David Tyree catch will be shown during the actual game telecast: I'll take the under at 1.5. Too much other stuff with which to fill the air...hopefully.

Number of ads that I will want to see again after the Super Bowl: Hoping for the over at 2.5, a number based on past experience and my relatively limited television viewing time.

How many chicken wings will I eat during the game: +/- 14.5. I'm on a healthy kick right now so I'll play the under, but it's a sucker bet. I have a fatal weakness for spicy Asian wings.

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