Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
RealGM Search
$.01-- My Lions went one-and-done as expected, though I came away impressed at how well the team played. Well, half the team anyways. For as good as the Lions offense was, their defense was not of playoff caliber.
The story of this game was tackling, or lack thereof. Lions defenders routinely missed fairly rudimentary tackles, content to just run into the ball carrier instead of hitting with proper angles and wrapping with proper technique. It was all three levels of the defense, too, which leads me to conclude that the coaching was not up to snuff. I was particularly disappointed with the play of safety Louis Delmas, who in hindsight probably was not healthy enough to play. Detroit ended their playoff drought this year thanks to a magnificent offense led by the best QB/WR duo in the league, Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson.
Now they've seen what they need to do to make the next step, and it involves upgrading the defensive talent and better implementing that talent into a more competent scheme. It remains to be seen if Defensive Coordinator Gunther Cunningham is capable of doing that, but the future is certainly brighter in Detroit than it has been in years. Decades even.
The Saints helped make that defense look so bad. Everyone knows about Drew Brees and all his weapons, but what stood out for me in this game was the line play. They got away with an almost obscene amount of holding and chop blocks (I saw them on four plays in a row in one series) but they largely controlled the fearsome Detroit front four. Ndamukong Suh was barely visible, Kyle VandenBosch even less so, and save on strong play I'm not sure Nick Fairley was even on the field. The left ends, Cliff Avril and Willie Young, had some success, but Jermon Bushron, Brian de la Puente, and the Pro Bowl guard tandem of Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans did a great job of facilitating Brees' fireworks. The Saints easily have the best offensive line of any remaining team, and because of that they can put up points on anyone, anywhere.
I also love how they refuse to let up and try and milk a lead. Their foot never comes off the gas, even ahead by two touchdowns with the ball and under four minutes left. Coach Sean Payton leaves nothing to chance by deviating from the normal game plan. That style makes them lethal because it puts so much pressure on the other team to try and keep up so much earlier in the game. The Lions hung tough for three quarters before the pressure to keep the throttle wide open caused their gasket to burst. When that happens to a team with a 5,000 yard passer and the best wide receiving talent since Randy Moss in his Minnesota prime, you know it's going to be bloody murder for everyone else to try and keep up with the Breeses.
$.02-- The Giants--my pick to win the NFC--dominated the visiting Falcons in a game that made me feel pretty darn good about my surprise team. The Giant defense pitched a shutout, as the Falcons only scored on an early safety. Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Matthias Kiwanuka and friends completely controlled the game against the suspect Atlanta line, bottling up Michael Turner and making life tough for Matt Ryan.
Where the Giants really stood out was on 3rd down. The Falcons had several opportunities on 3rd and short and also 4th and short, but the G-Men stymied them at every turn. Big Blue bombarded the Dirty Birds with well-executed run blitzes and domination of the line of scrimmage. The presence of Julio Jones, for whom the Falcons gave away their entire basket of eggs, did nothing to help their playoff fate. It seems the receiving corps wasn't really the problem after all; it's Matt Ryan just not being a dynamic quarterback. Look at the quarterbacks that have won titles recently: Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Roethlisberger, both Mannings. All of those guys have done more with less than what has been given to Ryan. He's in the dreaded purgatory of being very good but not great enough to take a team to a title, or even more than one playoff win in a season, but is quality enough to get them to the dance every year. Ryan is still young enough to make that step, but it needs to happen next year because the Falcons already made their impact changes last summer with the additions of Jones and Ray Edwards.
Eli Manning proved his worth as a playoff winner by expertly dissecting the Falcons' troublesome secondary. He threw for 277 yards on 32 attempts, completing 23 of them with three touchdowns, no interceptions, and just one sack. This is the Eli we saw lead this team on the improbable Super Bowl run before. The running game woke up on Sunday, and the offensive line is finally stable and relatively healthy. With a variety of big-play weapons and the trust in his own game, which Ryan still lacks, to get them the ball exactly where and when they need it to make the magic happen, Manning has this team playing as well as it has all year. Few will give them much of a chance at winning in Green Bay, but what the Giants do well nicely counters what the Packers struggle against. If Manning and the defensive front pay in Green Bay the way they did Sunday, they absolutely can knock of the defending champs.
$.03-- I'm probably the only football writer in America that isn't leading with Tim Tebow vanquishing the Steelers, but I'm also one of the few that wasn't really stunned by the outcome. Not that I expected an 80-yard pass on the first play of overtime, but the walking wounded Steelers were the perfectly staged victims for the latest case of Tebowmania.
Tebow was certainly a big part of the story here, but I thought this game was all about the shell of the Steelers that showed up in Mile High. Ben Roethlisberger moved better than a week ago but still was obviously hampered. Their offensive line was abysmal, but their injury-ravaged defensive line was the key to the game. Instead of Brett Keisel and Casey Hampton tying up blockers and letting Lawrence Timmons, James Harrison, and the other backers and defensive backs to stymie Tebow, they had Cameron Heyward and Steve McClendon on the job. The Broncos line was able to block the front three mano a mano, no double teams, no chips from the fullback or tight end. That freed up blockers to go out in space and give Tebow all sorts of time and options, both running and passing. The Pittsburgh secondary doesn't cover well enough to handle any QB routinely getting five seconds to survey the field. Tebow didn't hit a lot of passes--10 completions on 21 attempts--but several were big plays that completely changed the game. Those 10 completions produced 316 yards, which is damn impressive even if you take out the 80-yard game winner.
The Steelers offense struggled against the aggressive Denver front, and I thought Coach John Fox did a great job preparing his defense for how to play Roethlisberger. Rookie safety Quentin Carter had the game of his life, seemingly always right where Big Ben wanted to go with the ball. They played trail coverage with over help, forcing Roethlisberger to carefully fit the ball into small windows while under duress. It worked for Cleveland a week ago, and Denver did it quite well in its own right. I have little doubt a healthier Pittsburgh team would have waltzed through Denver like a hot scoop through ice cream, but quite often the playoffs are about what team is hotter and healthier. Right now, Denver is both and Pittsburgh is going home early because of it.
$.04-- The Houston Texans won their first-ever playoff game in the weekend opener, besting Cincinnati in a game that stretched the credibility of the term "playoff football". It was the first time two rookie quarterbacks ever started the same playoff game, and it showed. TJ Yates wasn't great but didn't have to be, while Cincy counterpart Andy Dalton uncharacteristically threw three INTs and struggled mightily in trying to stand up to the strong Houston pass rush.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anything like the way Houston has reacted to this Texans win. This community is absolutely starved for any sort of playoff success in any sport. When I went out Saturday morning at least 50% of the people I saw were clad in Texans gear, and that number increased on Sunday after the victory. The first ten minutes of the local newscast ignored a double homicide and a nasty truck accident that closed I-45 for hours, focusing instead on the Texans inaugural playoff win. The Houston Chronicle ran a 12-page Sunday spread just on this game. The only thing that comes close in my experience was the 1995 AL Division Series, when Tony Pena's pinch-hit homerun in the first playoff game for Cleveland in over 40 years gave the Tribe a victory that sent most of the student body at Ohio University flooding onto Court Street in wild spontaneous celebration.
Among the more common jerseys is that of rookie DE JJ Watt, quickly becoming a fan favorite as well as the face of the defense. Watt's athletic interception and return for a touchdown was the tipping point in the game, but what struck me is how he handled his shining moment. After nearly getting beaten to death by exuberant teammates (tangential aside: why is it not outlawed to strike a teammate in the head in celebration? Watt took much harder hits from teammates than he ever gets on the field of play. If the NFLPA is truly concerned about safety they'll push this issue), Watt regrouped the defense as they prepared for the next drive. He is not going to win Defensive Rookie of the Year and probably won't even finish in the top-five of the voting, but JJ Watt is the biggest difference in the defensive improvement of this Texans team. His on-field play is strong but he also filled a leadership void (along with Danieal Manning) that brought positive energy and confidence to a unit that sorely lacked both.
I almost don't have the heart to tell my fellow Houstonians that they are living on borrowed time in the playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens are up next, a ferocious and playoff-proven defense that shut down the Texans offense earlier this year when Matt Schaub was still the quarterback. But honestly I'm not sure the greater populous will even mind, because this season is already a rousing success for the Houston Texans.
$.05-- Jeff Fisher is set to decide which head coaching job he wants this week, Miami or St. Louis. The big money is in Miami, but the smart money is that Fisher will wind up coaching the Rams next season. Fisher fits better with the Rams with a better chance to succeed immediately, and the primary reason is nothing on the field.
The ownership in Miami appears to be a problem. Majority owner Stephen Ross is a star-struck neophyte that loves to surround himself with big names, a guy that thinks he can spend freely and that will make him a winner. As Dan Snyder and the New York Rangers and Mets have proven for years, that is most certainly a terribly deluded philosophy. Last summer he courted big-name Jim Harbaugh while Tony Sparano was still employed as his coach. He fired Sparano not during the bye, not when the team was 0-7, but waited until the team started actually winning. That is not the sign of a mentally competent owner, and Fisher has some experience with that. Plus the Dolphins have to climb over both the Patriots and the Jets.
The Rams have a much easier path. Even though they finished last in the NFC West and the division markedly improved in 2011, the prospect of usurping Arizona and Seattle doesn't seem daunting. The quarterback is already in place, there are strong building blocks on defense, and they can't possibly suffer the ravaging injuries or brutal starting schedule that torpedoed this past season. Owner Stan Kroenke has never hesitated to spend to build winners with his teams in other sports, and he has generally made prudent decisions with his money.
There is also a connection on the agent side. Marvin Demoff represents Fisher, and Marvin's son Kevin is the Chief Operating Officer of the St. Louis Rams. Can you say tidy negotiation? Add onto that the scepter of a potential move to Los Angeles, which I feel is being misrepresented as a negative. Fisher is a SoCal guy and the move greatly eases the travel burden of the only NFL team that plays two division games two time zones away. Of course the Rams are not the only team rumored to be on the move...
$.06-- When the Chargers announced that GM AJ Smith and Coach Norv Turner are returning, like everyone else my initial reaction was "Are you freaking kidding?!" My mind immediately traced back to the early 90s in Cleveland, where Browns owner Art Modell defiantly clung to widely unpopular Bill Belichick as his coach despite little success and curiously underachieving performances. Modell was seemingly foretelling his impending move to Baltimore, and I cannot help but think Chargers owner Dean Spanos is following Modell's course of action as he prepares his team for a move up the coast to Los Angeles. Perhaps that is reading too much into the decision, but there is no question there are parallels between the situations.
Norv takes all the heat, but the real problem in San Diego lies with Smith. The longtime GM is one of the least respected front office leaders in the entire league by just about all comers. It speaks volumes when Marty Schottenheimer, easily the nicest and most decent person you could ever meet, goes out of his way to publicly criticize Smith. Agents cannot stand dealing with Smith, who at times plays hardball with key players but overpays to keep lesser ones. There is no rhyme or reason to his team building strategy. His drafts have been uneven at best; the last five drafts have produced one Pro Bowl player, safety Eric Weddle, and several reaches for players that would have been available well later in the draft. It would be very hard for Spanos to attract a proven quality coach with Smith still in place.
Not that Turner should escape scrutiny. Instead of sleepwalking through September as they have most seasons in his tenure, this year they started strong and then hibernated from mid-October to December, losing six in a row. A strong finish and an impassioned plea from Pro Bowl (in name only) QB Philip Rivers saved Turner once again, but that is exactly why he needed to go. The offensive players universally love Norv, a brilliant offensive mind full of creativity and confidence. Yet they are the unit that continually disappoints. Rivers had more INTs than TDs until late in the season and produced the shallowest 4000 yards season ever. They seem to make the most critical mistakes at the most critical times, while the defense is simply not talented enough to compensate.
Spanos did deservedly fire Defensive Coordinator Greg Manusky after just one subpar season, but he was unwilling to do what was really needed. Much like when Art Modell elected to keep the ineffective fan whipping boy Bill Belichick (and underperforming, unpopular Defensive Coordinator Nick Saban) and bleed out fan enthusiasm to help facilitate a franchise relocation, Dean Spanos appears to be content to take a final season of lumps before scurrying to a new locale that will make him millions with no recourse to his former home.
$.07--5 NFL Quickies:
1. The Colts fired Bill Polian as GM, but it's a mistake to think that Jim Irsay really wanted Bill Polian. Rather, this is an indictment upon Bill's son Chris, his chosen successor and the person most responsible for the wretched drafting of the past handful of seasons. Certainly Irsay's emotional connection to Peyton Manning and Bill Polian's apparent ease of tossing him out played a role, but the bottom line here is that Irsay didn't want Chris Polian running his football team.
2. I've been a fan of Al Michael for a very long time, but he had a terrible call doing the Saints/Lions game. He botched several names and missed several calls and observations that my 6-year-old spotted.
3. Bill Parcells is a finalist for the Hall of Fame. This is my impassioned plea to keep him out, most especially on his first ballot. After leaving the Giants, where he was legitimately a great coach, he went 3-5 as a playoff coach despite being favored in all but two. Without Bill Belichick running his defense, Parcells record as a coach is one game below .500. Eight of his final nine teams all made the "under" in season win/loss total bets. I grant that his Giants era probably gets him in the door at some point, but there are at least 30 more deserving HOF candidates that belong ahead of Parcells.
4. The Patriots replaced former Offensive Coordinator Bill O'Brien with a familiar face. Josh McDaniels returns to the fold after a few wildly unsuccessful seasons away from The Hoodie. After barely escaping the lynch mob for his disastrous run in Denver, McDaniels was the man responsible for the 2011 Rams offense, one of the least efficient and lowest productive offenses in league history. How exactly does this guy stay so coveted?!
5. Speaking of inexplicably hot coaching candidates, it appears the Buccaneers are toying with the idea of hiring Mike Sherman as their head coach. This is the same Mike Sherman that just got fired at Texas A&M after leading a preseason top-10 team with a great quarterback to a 6-6 regular season finish. His Packers teams also laid playoff eggs, and the lasting memory of his Green Bay time was the shot of him sleeping at the Combine. Granted the Combine is the most boring sporting event this side of endurance swimming and it's even worse in person than on TV, but if the Bucs think Sherman is the kind of guy to energize the young talent, they are sadly mistaken.
$.08-- Tis the season for underclassmen to declare for the draft. Technically, they have until the 15th to apply, and the NFL wisely gives them three more days to withdraw, but the great majority of prominent candidates have already made their intentions known. The following two cents will be devoted to those that made good decisions and bad ones, but before I get to that I feel the need to address some misconceptions about leaving school early. The prefatory primer...
Most people seem to think that unless a player is a first or second round pick, leaving school is a mistake. But that is ignoring the economic and developmental pressures that fall on many of these young men. A 5th round draft pick will make no less than $820K in his first two seasons. Find me another profession where a 21-year-old can make that kind of money. Heck, find me a profession where a 47-year-old with multiple college degrees can make that kind of money. Let's say the player would stay in school for that final year instead of coming out. Maybe he has an off year that causes him to go undrafted. Maybe he gets hurt and loses his career. Maybe his grades are lousy and the only reason he's in school is football, and that catches up to him. It's hard to look away from that kind of money when you're 21 and have been given a free ride for most of your life because of athletic prowess. How much does a general studies major or even a criminal justice major make in the first 20 years after graduation? Odds are very good it won't total the $820K he would get just for making an NFL roster for two years. Even a practice squad player makes at minimum $63,000 a year. That's roughly double the annual salary of a beginning teacher.
People also seem to assume that returning to school is foolish for players that would be high picks. While all of the above risks about returning are indeed valid, for the players who are compelled to publicly announce they are staying in school rather than just enrolling for classes again, the risks of loss are actually pretty minimal. I'll use Jake Locker as an example. The Washington quarterback was widely speculated to be in consideration for the #1 overall slot in the 2010 draft and drawing Steve Young comparisons, but he decided to stay a Husky one more year. Locker had a terrible senior season, with a decline in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and a worse INT percentage and TD rate and a humiliating showing against Nebraska. The critics (none more harsh than yours truly) sharpened the barbs and ripped him apart as an NFL prospect; I know at least two NFL teams had lower than 3rd round grades on Locker after his senior season. Yet despite all that prevailing negativity, Locker wound up going 8th overall to Tennessee. Obviously he lost some up front dollars, but $12M over four years is nothing to sneeze at.
Or consider O'Brien Schofield, the former Wisconsin defensive end. He also stuck around for his senior season, though there was not much clamoring for him to declare early and he would have been a 3rd round pick at best in 2009. He played his way into first round status in 2o10 before suffering a torn ACL during the first day of Senior Bowl practice (courtesy of Vlad Ducasse). Even though he was injured and was almost certain to miss his rookie year, the Cardinals had seen enough in Schofield to take him in the 4th round. His first contract will still pay him $2.2M, and his play in 2011 probably earned him a second contract that will at least double that. If the talent is there, the money will be there even with injury or an unexpectedly subpar senior season.
$.09--Early entrants that made good decisions:
--Riley Reiff, T, Iowa. Pedigreed program noted for churning out NFL-ready linemen, and Reiff is already demonstrably better than most recent Hawkeyes when they came out. He'll likely never make more than one Pro Bowl but he can capably start for the next decade for just about anyone. The exact same would be true next year, and he's not likely to improve upon his 8-15 overall status in this draft.
-- Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina. Though I'm much more down on the giant wideout than most draftniks, he was wise to flee Columbia and The Ol' Ball Coach. The Gamecocks are losing a flood of talent and Jeffery is increasingly misfit in their offense as he continues to grow bigger and, apparently, slower. Another season like 2011 and Jeffery wouldn't sniff the 2nd round of the 2013 draft, but he's still a probable top 25 pick in 2012.
-- Brock Osweiler, QB, Arizona State. Please don't interpret this as "Risdon is endorsing Osweiler as a NFL QB", because I'm fairly certain he is not. But there is a gaping void behind the top three prospects (Luck, Griffin, and Tannehill) and the second tier (Weeden, Foles, Cousins, Wilson) and Osweiler correctly ascertained that demand far exceeds draft supply. The one sentence scouting report on Osweiler is that he's a less cocky Ryan Mallett with foot speed. In NFL parlance, that equals a top 45 pick, perhaps even sneaking into the top 25. God help the team that takes that plunge...
-- Jerrel Worthy, DT, Michigan State. This year's bull in the china shop along the D-line. Leaves Sparty after a great bowl win and making a prominent impact in two nationally televised games. This draft class appears thin on impact tackles, and Worthy has as much proven potential as any. He's not always easy to coach or motivate, so leaving on such a high note should prove savvy. Should be a top 20 pick if he doesn't bomb the interviewing process. Fletcher Cox of Mississippi State isn't as dynamic but also wisely declared early and should be a 1st round pick.
-- Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State. Had a great game against Auburn in the opener, then had a strong finish against a good Ohio defense in the Idaho Potato Bowl, showcasing his speed, power, and balance. He's not going to get better exposure than that while playing at Utah State. One NFC South scout I talked with called him "the most underrated prospect in the country" before he officially declared. Coaches are going to love his style and his pass protect skills once they get around to breaking down tape. You're not going to find him in many mock drafts before the 4th round but don't be surprised if he comes off quite a bit earlier.
-- Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State. Seldom does a player have a lesser impact on the field yet raise his stock the way Burfict did in 2011. Even though the production went down and the impact plays were fewer and farther between, Burfict cut way back on the knucklehead moments and showed better maturity and on-field discipline. He's a fierce hitter with great athleticism and occasionally awesome instincts, but the cloud of personal fouls, surliness with teammates and coaches, and being easily taken of his game by opponent chatter made his stock artificially low with NFL people I talked to. A relatively quiet 2011 served him well, and now he hits the draft before another subpar season would really raise eyebrows about his supposed skill level and football ability. Some defensive-minded coach is going to pound the table for him in the first round.
$.10--Early entrants that made poor decisions:
-- Nick Perry, DE, USC. A rising star at a program that kept its star quarterback (Matt Barkley, wise to stick around), Perry has the stigma of a one-half-of-one-year wonder. Because his game progressed so quickly, going from pass rushing specialist to all-around stud almost overnight, the buzz amongst scouts was never real high until late in the game. When NFL coaches look at tape, they've got few examples of his great work and a lot of a one-dimensional player that couldn't shed a block with a machete. He would have entered 2012 as the top dog on most pass rushing boards and was only going to get better as a football player under Monte Kiffin. He might wind up cracking the top 20 if he tests well (and he will), but he had a legit chance to be a top 3 pick in 2012 while spending another season at the single greatest place on earth to be a college student.
-- Bobby Massie, T, Ole Miss. He's a big ole hoss, to quote a scout I know. He comes from a disappointing offense that is getting a makeover that should favor and augment both his talents and his profile next season. I don't know any employed scout right now that thinks he's worth more than a 4th round pick, but with a strong season next year he could have played his way into the bottom of the 1st. Physically he is similar to Vikings RT Phil Loadholt, and like him Massie struggles to keep his pads low and feet moving. His stock was only going to improve, and he would have been a more seasoned and NFL-ready prospect with another year.
-- Donte Paige-Moss, DE, North Carolina. As I wrote on the NFL Draft message board here at RealGM, this decision makes me simultaneously laugh and weep. Paige-Moss was one of many overrated UNC prospects heading into the season, a one-trick pony power rusher that thrived on playing opposite more threatening weapons. He played like crap and deservedly got benched, then tried to trash his teammates and coaches for the benching. He tweets like an immature, illiterate ignoramus. To top it off, he tore his ACL in their bowl game which wipes out workout season and probably keeps him off the field in 2012. He already had character flags for prior arrests. Two years ago he was a more highly regarded prospect than teammate Quinton Coples, a potential top 5 pick this year. Now Paige-Moss will be lucky to get drafted at all. He's the kind of guy who will be a 28-year old janitor at the high school where he once dominated and the kids will point to him and say "That's the guy that filled the trophy case in the hall. Now he cleans up our vomit" and shake their heads laughing.
