Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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$.01-- Green Bay proved their merit as the No. 1 overall seed, beating Detroit despite resting Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, and several other key components. Matt Flynn set a team record with six touchdown passes, out-dueling Matt Stafford with a late game-winning touchdown that capped off an orgy of offense.
Aside from the concept that the Packers backups were still good enough to beat the Lions, which troubles this Lions fan pretty deeply, this game perhaps throws some cold water on the whole "Aaron Rodgers is the greatest and unquestioned MVP" argument. Flynn torched Detroit for a team record 480 yards and the aforementioned six touchdowns. He did that without Greg Jennings and with very little run support.
If Flynn could do that so easily, maybe Rodgers has been more of a beneficiary of the great talent around him than we've thought. Perhaps all that Rodgers has accomplished isn't as impressive given this fresh context. After all, people have used that as a knock on Tom Brady for years now after Matt Cassel put up monster numbers in his absence before becoming a barely-average starter in Kansas City. People are always looking for reasons to bring down greatness, and this is probably going to be another case of that ill-advised phenomenon.
Flynn will get his chance to prove he's more than just Matt Cassel or a product of the Packer weaponry next season. He is a free agent, and he has given Packers GM Ted Thompson an interesting choice. Thompson could franchise tag Flynn, which would entail paying the backup QB roughly double the money of the starting QB that just earned no worse than a co-MVP award. If that happens, you can bet Rodgers agent will be camped out in Thompson's yard with his hands out demanding an exorbitant extension.
They have some other pieces they might want to keep--notably Jermichael Finley and Scott Wells--and would be wise to not lose the leverage of the franchise tag in those negotiations. If the choice is to franchise Flynn with the intention of trading him, the Packers are running a huge risk that another team would give up their asking price (my guesstimate: a first and second round pick) for a guy that could very well be the next Scott Mitchell.
In a QB-heavy draft and with some other veteran options potentially available (Matt Moore, Kyle Orton, Alex Smith), the Packers need to be careful to not price themselves out of a deal. Or they can try and sucker Flynn into sticking around with a hometown discount and the chance to win, a ploy that seldom works and drives agents and the NFLPA absolutely crazy. Flynn's fantastic finale certainly stirred a lot of pots.
$.02-- I want you to think back a few weeks, to the time around Thanksgiving and early December. Tebowmania was in full force and the Broncos could not lose. The brutally obnoxious Skip Bayless and Tebow's insufferable sycophants were riding high, oblivious to the reality that the novelty would soon wear off and Tebow would have to do more as a passer to keep the fun flowing. Even some of Tebow's harshest critics begrudgingly acknowledged that just maybe there was something there, and that Herm Edwards' famous proclamation was precisely what Tebow accomplished. He played the game and he won with no apologies.
I was somewhere in the middle on Tebow. I found his success much like the Wildcat phenomenon of a few seasons ago, a throwback wrinkle that all the fancy defensive schemes and undisciplined young players had no clue how to handle. That bought Tebow time to improve as a passer, and he did have some mechanical progress that reflects well on his work ethic and the Broncos coaching staff, notably QB coach Adam Gase. But as with the Wildcat, the book on how to counter it got into heavy circulation, and Tebow has been unable to author more magic.
His last two weeks have been downright pathetic. A week after throwing four interceptions in a bad loss at Buffalo, Tebow completed just six of his 22 attempts in a toothless, chaotic, boring loss to Kansas City. He has just 30 completions in the last three games--on 74 attempts, with one lonely touchdown. He's also lost over 100 yards on sacks and fumbled five times to go with his five INTs. The Chiefs played their aggressive base defense, with press coverage and lots of outside pressure, all day long. Tebow had no clue how to answer.
Now they get to play Pittsburgh, a team that just played a scrambling QB that can't throw in Seneca Wallace in Cleveland. John Elway has now seen his earlier fears confirmed, and he's about to see it play out on a national stage. He has an iconic QB that isn't ready to be a fulltime NFL starter. Denver is going to have to bring in a passer to at least compete with Tebow, or platoon with him, or take over for him. Tebow had a nice run and it's way too premature to write him off, but I suspect he would be the first to tell you that a team cannot win with QB play that consistently awful.
$.03-- The New York Jets have only themselves to blame for missing the playoffs, disintegrating into a finger-pointing, turnover-plagued mess in their loss at Miami. With team captain Santonio Holmes picking fights in the huddle and then sulking on the sidelines, the Jets season came to a whimpering end that far too few people saw coming.
Reports circulated that major changes to the coaching staff are likely in New York. My opinion is that unless they change quarterbacks and play smarter football, it's all shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. If Head Coach Rex Ryan and GM Mike Tannebaum learned anything from 2011, it should be that Mark Sanchez is absolutely not a franchise quarterback at this time, and it sure looks like he never will be either. He doesn't throw the ball with any sort of confidence or authority, and he makes decisions with the football that a good high school QB knows not to make.
The imminent change at offensive coordinator, where Brian Schottenheimer needs to move on for mutual benefit, perhaps buys The Sanchize one more year. 2012 is the last year where his contract is too big to just sweep away, and it's not like he has the market value of, say, Matt Flynn or even Matt Moore. But with Mark Brunell turning 42 shortly after next season starts and Greg McElroy nothing more than a career backup, this is absolutely the right time for the Jets to invest in upgrading their quarterback position.
I liken it to where San Francisco was a year ago, with the underwhelming Alex Smith basically stuck to them and they drafted a 2nd round rookie that needed time in Colin Kaepernick. Smith wasn't great but he was no longer the problem, and that's really all the Jets need of Sanchez, to stop being the reason their offense doesn't fly. Maybe they can find an offensive coordinator with a better sense of what Sanchez does well, which is, uh, hmm...
Maybe they can switch to an offense with some semblance of pacing and rhythm, neither of which were present in 2011 and certainly lacking in the finale. Maybe they strike gold with their mid-teen draft pick and the likes of Landry Jones or Ryan Tannehill, or they get aggressive and acquire Flynn or even Peyton Manning. But if they go into 2012 with The Sanchize as the unquestioned starter and no major coaching changes, they're going to sink faster than the Edmund Fitzgerald.
$.04--Award time! MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Getting a team with the giant target of defending champs to go 15-1 with that terrible defense and not much of a running game wins out, what I wrote about Flynn above notwithstanding.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, Saints. He picked a bad time to have the most prolific passing season and to lead the offense that set records for most first downs, most yards, most completions, and highest completion percentage.
Defensive Player of the Year: Terrell Suggs, Ravens. Very tough decision here, with Jason Pierre-Paul and Darelle Revis both eminently worthy, Jared Allen going wild, and Patrick Willis missing just enough time to water down his stats. T-Sizzle bagged 14 sacks and led the league with seven forced fumbles, to go with two INTs, nine PDs, and drawing the most penalties of any defender.
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, 49ers. Packers coach Mike McCarthy had it until his team lost at Kansas City. Harbaugh turning Alex Smith into a competent QB and overturning an amateurish, defeatist culture is damn impressive.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, Panthers. Over 4,000 passing yards is impressive enough. He also finished 2nd amongst rookies with 706 rushing yards and second in the league with 14 rushing touchdowns. Still think he can't play, Todd McShay...?
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller, Broncos. Consistent performance and multi-dimensionality gets him the nod over Aldon Smith, who surged to the rookie sack title. Another very strong rookie defensive class.
Assistant Coach of the Year: Wade Philips, Texans. He took a historically wretched unit and transformed them into a top-five performer, spearheaded by a rookie defensive end and two new safeties and without Mario Williams for most of the season. Head Coach Gary Kubiak absolutely owes Philips his job.
Comeback Player of the Year: D'Qwell Jackson, Browns. Led the league in solo tackles while making all the calls for one of the more underappreciated defenses in the league after missing the last 26 games.
Most Improved Player: Daryl Washington, Cardinals. You might be asking, "Who?!" The 2nd year inside backer keyed the transformation from 1-6 to 8-8 with his great range, savvy blitzing, and strong coverage skills. He put up better numbers across the board than Ray Lewis.
$.05-- St. Louis has fired Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo and GM Billy Devaney, according to multiple sources. This comes after finishing 2-14 and achieving that ignominy with such hopeless demeanor. Injuries certainly played a major role this year, but the inability of the coaching staff to foster player development is the number one reason why Spags is out of a job and took Devaney down with him.
Most teams have a handful of success stories of players that surprise and impress, guys that wildly surpass expectations, youngsters that take big jumps from year to year, even in seasons where the team might have a terrible record. I'm hard-pressed to find any with the Rams this year. Safety Darian Stewart is the closest facsimile, but he's best known by most fans as the guy helplessly and futilely trying to stop Marshawn Lynch. The chosen franchise QB, Sam Bradford, badly regressed in his second season. He went from looking like a poised rifleman to the next David Carr, shell-shocked and timid behind a line that also regressed badly. Other than oft-injured Danario Alexander, Devaney has completely whiffed at unearthing even a competent #4 wideout. He got a gift from Denver in picking up Brandon Lloyd, but Devaney's drafts are littered with offensive ineptitude. Spagnuolo and his staff completely failed to develop the talent as well, and their offensive system lacked creativity and style.
Yet all hope is not lost going forward. There are pieces in place on defense, and both starting corners and their top backups are all coming back after missing almost all of 2011. James Laurinaitis is a star in the making at middle linebacker, Chris Long is an upper-tier defensive end, rookie Robert Quinn has exciting potential as a pass rusher, and the safeties are serviceable. Bradford was the No. 1 pick two years ago and was excellent as a rookie, as was tackle Rodger Saffold, who regressed even worse than Bradford in year two. Lloyd will be back as a legit wideout, and Steven Jackson can still churn out 1,145 yards amidst the dysfunctional ineptitude.
This is a lower profile, lower pressure gig screaming for a dynamic coaching presence and a shrewd front office leader. Having Bradford and also the No. 2 pick in the draft makes it more attractive than it might first appear. Some other "sexier" openings will draw more rumors and innuendos with the Jon Grudens and Jeff Fishers of the coaching world, but those big names would be wise to consider the Rams. They've already reached the bottom and have some key pieces in place. My first guess for the new coach: Brian Billick.
$.06-- Another coaching vacancy is about to open in Tampa Bay, where the Bucs players collectively raised their middle fingers at Raheem Morris in another pathetic display Sunday. They lost to the Falcons 45-24 but it was 42-0 after 25 minutes of play. Such was the story all season for the Bucs, who went from 4-2 to 4-12 and lost their last five by at least two touchdowns. They trailed by more than 21 points in the first half of their final five games.
I expected some falloff from last year's surprising 10-6 record, but to lose 10 in a row and not even be competitive in most of them really stunned me. I was a buyer in Josh Freeman stock after a brilliant 2011 where he threw 25 TDs to just 6 INTs and carried himself with the easy poise of a consummate leader and winner. His inexplicable cliff dive to 16 touchdowns and 22 INTs, to go with 9 fumbles and a decline of nearly a full yard in yards per attempt, is simply head-scratching. Freeman started almost every game as if he thought it had a later start time; to wit, they did not score a 1st quarter point in December. The pocket presence and confidence that marked his strong second year were conspicuously absent in his third, even though his sack rate actually improved and his receiving cast was the same.
With no strong leadership presence in Freeman, or in Morris, the fragile patchwork quilt of bad boys and insolent souls unraveled. It was a great and uplifting story watching former problem child Kellen Winslow mature into a mentor for problem children Mike Williams and Legarrette Blount, and all three had very impressive 2010s. Winslow was uncharacteristically quiet this year, and though Williams and Blount stayed out of trouble their impact on the field was greatly diminished. The decision to bring back hardened convicts Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson in the secondary didn't work, either on the field or in establishing discipline upon the team. Talib was frequently victimized by gambling way too much in coverage and taking terrible angles, while Jackson looked like a guy who missed over a year due to suspension.
Unless Freeman rebounds dramatically, it's not going to get better quickly for whoever gets the coaching job. Blount is a free agent, which means the Bucs do not currently have a running back on the 2012 roster. Not one. Venerable corner Ronde Barber is also a free agent and it's hard to see the 37-year-old returning to this puddle of mud. With Talib expected to be jettisoned, the Bucs must replace both starting corners. They also desperately need two new starting outside backers. Top (using that term loosely) safety Sean Jones is also a free agent. They have the highest-paid offensive line in the league, even though none were even a Pro Bowl afterthought. All that mess, plus playing in a very strong division with three very good QBs, makes Tampa Bay the least attractive of all the likely job openings.
$.07--5 NFL Quickies: 1. Jason Taylor almost finished his storied career in fairytale fashion. Even though his late TD got (correctly) wiped out, Taylor still had an effective day pressuring Mark Sanchez. I'm not sure Taylor is a Hall of Famer, but few have played with his smiling panache.
2. I love the decision by the Texans to go for two and the win rather playing for the tie and overtime. On the road with nothing to play for, why risk any further injuries? Of course the execution was horrific, with an inexcusable penalty on Joel Dreessen followed by a terrible snap that sailed well over Jake Delhomme's head. Nice to see Delhomme have some strong play; he's a great guy that deserves to be remembered for his glory years in taking Carolina to a Super Bowl and not the turnover machine that couldn't throw anymore the past few seasons.
3. I don't like tooting my own horn too loudly, but I venture I'm the only football writer in America last summer that had the Jets, Bears, Cowboys and Eagles all out of the playoffs and the Bengals and Giants both in. I also nailed Arizona and Oakland at 8-8, a precipitous drop by the Colts (I had 6-10 even with Manning), and the Vikings falling off the face of the earth. That helps ease the sting of picking the Chargers to go 13-3, the Jaguars to fight with the Bengals for the final AFC Wildcard, the Rams to win 10 games (must have been really drunk with that one), and Baltimore to miss the playoffs.
4. Congrats to the Oakland Raiders for shattering the NFL record for most penalties and most penalty yards in a season. The 1998 Kansas City Chiefs previously held the record, another underachieving unit that changed QBs midway through the season. That performance got Marty Schottenheimer fired, and with Al Davis no longer in place supporting him, perhaps Hue Jackson's seat is hotter than most think.
5. I think we witnessed the end of Brian Urlacher on Sunday. The Bears Pro Bowl linebacker suffered what looks to be a devastating knee injury, with early reports indicating the Bears believe he tore both the ACL and MCL. At his age and with his reliance on his legs to make plays in that scheme, even if he rehabs like crazy he's not going to be close to his customary level ever again. I've been a frequent critic but he deserves better than to go out that way, crumpled in agony in the end zone of a meaningless game that casts a negative pall on a 1-5 Cutler-less finish in Chicago.
$.08--College/Draft Quickies: -- Robert Griffin III and his Baylor Bears did not disappoint a sellout Alamo Bowl crowd, beating Washington 67-56 in a game that featured almost 1400 yards of offense. Among the 65,000 in attendance were scouts from at least 20 NFL teams.
Two of those teams are quite notable: Cleveland and Miami. A Browns source I exchanged texts with told me the team "is obviously impressed with what he has done and what he can do".
As the Rams and Vikings who will pick 2nd and 3rd, both have spent top 12 picks on QBs in the last two drafts, the jockeying between the next tier of drafting teams to get Griffin figures to be fierce. I do not expect anyone to trade up to #1 to get Andrew Luck, but it would not surprise me at all if the Ethnic Slurs, Dolphins, or even the Jets offer a hefty ransom to get the ability to draft RG3.
-- In that game, Baylor RB Terence Ganaway upstaged his quarterback with an amazing yardage output. Two things that he flashed in this game that he also showed me in the Mizzou and Texas A&M games: an ability to decisively attack the hole and wiggle through it, and the strength and balance to make arm tackles look silly. I know most folks aren't real bullish on Ganaway, but when I watch him I see a whole lot of Rashard Mendenhall during his Illinois days. I see him as a 3rd rounder with promise, but I suspect his lack of track speed will condemn him at least two rounds lower.
-- The MAC is 3-1 in bowls, as Toledo joined Ohio and Temple as winners while Western Michigan lost to Purdue. Nice showing by the Mid-American Conference at a time where the big boys in the BCS conferences appear to be separating themselves even further from the non-automatic qualifying schools. It was also a nice way to showcase some future NFL talent in the MAC in guys like WMU wideout Jordan White, Toledo WR Eric Page, and Ohio LB Noah Keller.
-- North Carolina linebacker Zach Brown did his part in the Tar Heels loss to Missouri. Brown showed great range and consistently excellent instincts and technique in wrapping up 14 tackles and picking off a pass. He is undersized at 6'2" and 230 pounds soaking wet, but Brown is a straight-up gamer. Few college LBs have his footwork in coverage, and he has sneaky power to disengage from blocks. He is a first round talent best served going to a 4-3 front zone coverage team like Detroit or the Giants, though he might not last into the 20s where those teams pick.
-- A couple of names to watch rise up draftnik boards in the very near future: Mississippi State DT Fletcher Cox and Florida State tackle Zebrie Sanders. Both are very likely to be first round picks when all is said and done. Cox reminds me a lot of Atlanta's Corey Peters, a thickly-cut penetrator that relies on quickness and angles but needs to work on base strength and closing on the ball. Sanders has a chance to be a very good right tackle, but he needs to stop holding so frequently and learn to move his feet beyond his kick step. Right now I would not take either player before the 3rd round. Remind me of that when I do my annual "What Jeff Risdon Would Do" mock draft after the Combine...
Stay tuned for an updated mock draft later this week!
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
