Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
RealGM Search
Last Week: 7-6 and kicking myself for not trusting my instincts on KC and OAK winning. 51-26 on the season.
Sunday Best
San Francisco (8) at Detroit (6): I'll admit it--I am reveling in my Lions being 5-0 for the first time since my mother was seven. The Monday Night victory over Chicago was a great national coming out party for this explosive, confident team. They are one of two remaining undefeated teams and sure seem poised to break a prolonged playoff drought. But I am still not sold that this Lions team belongs in the upper echelon discussion.
Several little things nag at me. They still commit too many stupid penalties. I still don't believe they can run the ball effectively, particularly to get short-yardage conversions. The offense is designed to strike with the big play and not grind out 12-play, 83 yard drives that eat clock and demoralize defenses. Being able to put up points quickly is great, but sometimes the long drive has a stronger impact on the overall game. While the secondary has improved, I still see too many holes that guys like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees are going to tear open. The defense is vulnerable to draws, screens, and any team that likes to throw to the tight end, which includes the aforementioned Packers and Saints but also two other NFC division leaders in Washington and San Francisco.
Those Niners are the guests at Ford Field this week, and I am more surprised they are 4-1 than the Lions are 5-0. I anticipated Jim Harbaugh making a real positive impact as a coach, but getting this team to believe in Alex Smith as their quarterback, not to mention getting Smith himself to believe it, has been far more successful than I ever envisioned. The offensive line is playing better, and the defense appears more accountable to one another. Considering where this team was coaching wise last year, Harbaugh has to be the early clubhouse leader for coach of the year voting.
His acumen gets a stiff test here, but I think the Niners pull it out. Frank Gore is precisely the kind of back that gives the Lions fits with his immediate north-south style and ability to make the first guy miss. Matt Forte gashed them last week, and Gore is faster and a little more violent of a runner than Forte. Smith has good mobility, and he appears to have tapered off the awful interceptions and misreads that have marred his largely disappointing career. Even though they will miss Josh Morgan, I like Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis against the Detroit coverage. Plus, I also just feel that the Lions are not quite ready yet to ascend to this kind of challenge. San Francisco is the best, most complete team they have faced thus far, and I think they will be a necessary road block. Niners 29, Lions 27.
Sunny Games
Philadelphia (25) at Washington (10): As maligned as the Philadephia defense has become, the wide nine technique they use to rush the passer is wildly effective. The Eagles lead the league in total QB pressures and sack percentage. Jason Babin and friends are doing their part, but this is the kind of statistical anomaly that shows the importance of being well-rounded. Some of the other Eagles stats that tell the real story: 32nd in red zone defense, 27th in yards per carry, 30th in rushing yards percentage, 19th in yards per pass attempt, 30th in percentage of opposing passes that result in TDs, 31st in short yardage defense (3rd and 3 or less, 4th and 2 or less). In summary, other than the defensive ends getting to the quarterback, the Eagles are a pretty inept defense.
Washington has a golden opportunity here to bury the Eagles once and for all. The key will be if Rex Grossman can handle that pressure. If you know Rex Grossman, you know this has been a major problem for Sexy Rexy throughout his career. Grossman has worn the game manager hat pretty well this year, and if he can do that here the Ethnic Slurs should be fine. Look for heavy doses of Fred Davis and Santana Moss on quick-hit passes that make the linebackers and safeties make quick reactions, and the return of Anthony Armstrong should open up the deep ball for a couple of shots. I also like that Slurs Defensive Coordinator Jim Haslett has had time to scheme against Michael Vick, and middle linebacker London Fletcher has played the role of Vick spy successfully in the past. Washington wins 27-20.
Buffalo (5) at New York Giants (12): Three reasons why I like the Giants to pull the surprise here:
1. Eli Manning is a different quarterback when he has time to throw. For all the accolades thrown at the Bills, they rank dead last in getting to the opposing quarterback. When Eli has time, he often looks like a very good passer and much more confident person. Factor in that the Bills are in the bottom 10 in yards per attempt defense while the Giants rank 3rd in yards per pass attempt, plus stud Buffalo DT Kyle Williams will be out, and I think the Giants will have a lot of success throwing.
2. The Giants lost lask week in a lackluster effort to an inferior opponent. Tom Coughlin has been the master of pulling off unexpected wins, of dialing up bright performances in the darkest of night. I like his veteran team to show their coach they see that light at the end of the tunnel.
3. I see this as a "water finds its level" kind of game. I can buy the Giants being 4-2 and the Bills being 4-2, but I really would be surprised to see this talented Giants team 3-3 with the Buffalo Bills being 5-1. It sounds trite, but you know you're thinking it too.
Giants 30, Bills 27
New Orleans (2) at Tampa Bay (15): Last week's 48-3 drubbing is hard to ignore, but it is so out of character for this Tampa team that I tend to write it off as an inconsistent team having a very bad day all around. That is not going to happen again, but in order to beat the Saints they have to play a great all-around game. That isn't likely to happen either. With Legarrette Blount and Gerald McCoy both out, that makes it even more unlikely. Saints get a major leg up in the NFC South with a convincing, sharp 33-17 road win against wobbly Tampa.
Houston (14) at Baltimore (4): The Texans are reeling. Losing the best player on offense (Andre Johnson) and defense (Mario Williams) in back to back weeks will do that to a team (see: Kansas City). Beyond the injuries, last week's crushing loss to Oakland put a big hit into the fragile confidence on which this team is relying to try and eke out their first-ever playoff berth. Now they have to travel to face a rested Baltimore team that has a playmaking defense and an offense not afraid to stretch the field. Both of those are terrible problems for Houston. Baltimore cruises 33-20.
Dallas (16) at New England (3): I have done all sorts of mental gymnastics with this one. Obviously, New England is very good, but I kept thinking about all the little factors that make me consider picking the Cowboys. Dallas DC Rob Ryan, like his brother Rex, has been very good at designing and executing game plans that disrupt Tom Brady. Tony Romo ranks among the best in NFL history (seriously!) at throwing the ball down the field, and this New England secondary remains a major weakness. Romo has good weapons in Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, both apparently healthy together for the first time all year, plus Jason Witten and Felix Jones out of the backfield. Dallas is coming off a bye and has had time to compile an opponent-specific game plan. The Patriots could be primed for a letdown after vanquishing Rex Ryan's hated Jets last week and looking forward to a bye week after this one. Tom Brady has looked relatively human the past three weeks, with just seven touchdowns offset by five INTs and a lower-than-average completion percentage and yards per attempt.
So I do believe there are many compelling reasons to think the Cowboys can pull this one off. And it would not surprise me in the least if Dallas wins this game. Yet despite all that, I'm still picking New England at home. The main reason is that if the game is close in crunch time, Tom Brady will find a way to win whereas Tony Romo will find a way to lose. That is an oversimplification, but sometimes simplicity works. Take Dallas and the 7.5 points. Patriots 33, Cowboys 28.
Fair Skies
Jacksonville (28) at Pittsburgh (9): One of the reasons I gave up following baseball was highlighted on Wednesday, when the Pittsburgh Pirates opted out of contracts for Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit. That dropped their salary commitment to about $31 million, or about what the Cardinals will have to pay per year to keep Albert Pujols. The Pirates entire payroll right now sums up to less than 70% of the money they receive from the big spenders as part of MLB's revenue sharing. There is no punishment for the Pirates to not spend all that money, nor is there any incentive for them to do so. They haven't had a winning record since George Bush the Elder was in the White House no matter how much they have spent. The players union says nothing because they know it would compromise the big-ticket players like Pujols and Ryan Howard if they fussed about the roster full of league minimum earners in Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Florida. They're ecstatic to have all those jobs, because without the revenue sharing those three clubs would be bankrupt in about six weeks. The fans of those teams are browbeaten with the subtle reality of it being better to go 67-95 eight years of out ten than have no team at all, and rejoice in the year per decade they threaten to win 85.
That kind of economics is refreshingly foreign to the NFL. Teams have both a salary cap and a salary floor that ensure small markets like Pittsburgh and Jacksonville can thrive, and that owners must invest money in the on-field product and not vacation condos in Belize. The NFLPA made sure this status quo remained in place, raising the level of the middle class player and keeping competitive balance, knowing that what is good for the league is good for their players. NBA owners gaze longingly at this model, wishing upon every star they see that their league can adopt it, but the NBA players and its union have no such shared vision or long-sightedness. Sure, the NFL lockout sucked this past summer, but the end result is that the NFL will never be like baseball or basketball economically. To quote Martha Stewart, "That's a good thing".
Steelers 28, Jaguars 17
Cleveland (26) at Oakland (11): This looks to be Oakland's Al Davis Tribute Game, their first home game since the legendary owner passed away. I think that inspiration will carry the day, but if you are looking for an Xs and Os reason to like Oakland, consider the inefficiency of the Cleveland passing offense. Only the Saints throw the ball more per game than the Browns, with Colt McCoy averaging 43 attempts per game. Yet the Browns rank 17th in passing yards per game, and McCoy's 5.7 yards per attempt beats only Sam Bradford this year. If you go back to the start of the 2008 season, that figure would top only Jimmy Clausen last year, JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn in 2009, and Ryan Fitzpatrick subbing for Carson Palmer in 2008 for quarterbacks that started at least 10 games in a season. Three of those four guys are unlikely to ever take another NFL snap, and all of those teams lost at least 10 games. What makes it worse for McCoy? He is on pace to be sacked just 24 times, or on 3.6% of his attempts. All those other QBs were sacked on at least 6.9% of their attempts, with Bradford sacked an absurdly high 10.7% of his attempts. McCoy simply cannot throw the ball down the field, even with decent protection and a solid running game to ease pressure. Oakland bends but doesn't break, and the Black Hole shares a warm moment with their late hero. Oakland 24, Cleveland 14.
Carolina (24) at Atlanta (19): This is probably the most pivotal game of the season for Atlanta, which is coming off a humbling loss to Green Bay that proved the defending #1 seed in the NFC is most certainly not anywhere close to the team that will earn that title this year. Prized draft pick Julio Jones, in whose basket all their eggs are laid, is out with a pulled hamstring. The leaky offensive line has morphed Matt Ryan from Matty Ice to Natty Ice, from cool and poised to flat and jittery. Yet for all that ails Atlanta, they still have a lot of positives in their favor. Getting confidence back in that column is huge, and this game shapes up as a must-win to make that happen.
It is not going to be easy. Cam Newton continues to astonish with his NFL readiness and with how quickly he accelerates through the learning curve. Deangelo Williams appears to be finding his stride, and the offensive line is settling into a cohesive unit. Carolina has a pair of defensive end pass rushers that can make life tough for Ryan, and Steve Smith remains a game-breaking wideout that is a nightmare to match up against.
But these Panthers have yet to demonstrate they have learned how to win. Close but no cigar is an improvement over last year, but the plain fact remains they are 1-4 for a reason. Be it injuries, or inexperience, or inopportune penalties, or missed tackles, the Panthers just are not ready to make the leap forward. I expect this game to be another close loss. Atlanta 24, Carolina 20.
Rainy Day Games
Indianapolis (30) at Cincinnati (17): Welcome to the Jungle, Curtis Painter. There are no fun and games here. Cincy does not have what you want, and they sure know your name. That name is not Peyton Manning. Bengals 20, Colts 10.
St. Louis (32) at Green Bay (1): This game is a no-brainer, perhaps the easiest forecast all season. The larger story of interest here is just when, if at all, the Packers will drop a game this year. I guess a few scattered fans are wondering when the Rams are going to win, but I digress...
The Packers do have some vulnerability this week. Both starting tackles look to be out, which means some shuffling up front and rookie Derek Sherrod making his first start at right tackle. St. Louis does very little well, but the one thing they thrive at is pressuring the quarterback, ranking 5th in the league in QB pressures/hits per attempt. Chris Long and James Hall are tough matchups for seasoned linemen, and the Rams have some capability to pull off fire zone blitzes and overloads. At least that's what the Rams have been trying to convince themselves of during their bye week.
Even if they get to Aaron Rodgers repeatedly and a healthy Steven Jackson pounds out around 115 yards rushing, this Rams team will be lucky to cover the 14.5 point spread. They have seven corners either on IR or out for this game and will try to have the kneeless skeleton of Al Harris play every snap. Rodgers has picked apart far better secondaries than this one. The only real worry is if Rodgers gets bored, but I think he would like to keep the amazing streak of consecutive games with a QB rating over 110 (currently at 5) going on. In fact, if you go back to last year and include the playoffs, Rodgers has topped 110 in 13 of his 16 games. To put it in perspective, in Dan Marino's superlative 1984 season he topped 110 just 7 times and never more than twice in a row. Make it 14 of 17 for Rodgers. Packers 41, Rams 9.
Minnesota (23) at Chicago (21): Chicago gets a short week to try and fix an offensive line that committed nine false starts and got thoroughly dominated by an excellent Detroit line. Minnesota has a very good line of its own, including Brain Robison, my clubhouse leader for most improved player. Being at home will certainly help, but it will not be an all-curing tonic.
Minnesota finally played a full four quarters last week. Okay, they scored 28 points in the first quarter and then did little offensively, but the defense finally held strong and the offense stopped turning the ball over and taking quick 3 and outs that plagued this team during their 0-4 start. I like them to do more of the same here, and I think the fickle Chicago crowd could turn on Lovie Smith & Co. quickly. Just don't kick the ball to Devin Hester...Vikings 26, Bears 21.
Monday Night
Miami (31) at New York Jets (18): This is a dangerous time for the Jets, losers of three straight. Miami is coming off a bye. They have been a much better team on the road than at home in recent times. Matt Moore steps in for the injured Chad Henne, a quarterback that just did not garner confidence from his teammates. Mark Sanchez has struggled against Miami in the past, losing 3 of his four career starts. In their last meeting he completed just 17 of 44 passes and, according to Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders, had the Dolphins drop 5 interceptions and had another nullified with a penalty. One of the big boosts from a bye week is attention to detail, and in this case that means some of those potential INTs become actual INTs. Given the shaky status of the Jets offensive line and their alarming inability to run the ball (30th in yards per carry, 32nd in yards per first down carry), the game is on The Sanchize. Even though Miami has yet to play real well defensively, I do not like those odds for the Jets. Dolphins 17, Jets 15.
Byes: Arizona (29), Kansas City (20), Denver (27), Seattle (22), San Diego (7), Tennessee (13)
Drinking in the Dorm Room Games: Last Week: 5-0. Sort of makes up for the 7-6 NFL outcome...
Michigan State 30, Michigan 27
Oklahoma State 47, Texas 36
Virginia Tech 26, Wake Forest 24
Oregon 38, Arizona State 31
Florida 27, Auburn 24
