| Authored by Christopher Reina - 9th January, 2009 - 11:47 am
 The BCS system is far from perfect and I'm not sure if Florida is truly the best team on paper, but they were the best team on the field during the 2008 season.
I invented the Trench Counter (TC) earlier this year to statistically determine which teams play the best football on an every down basis. It attempts to eliminate the outliers of fortuitous events that allow a team that was outplayed in nearly every facet of the game but still win a ball game.
The formula is as follows:
(2x Yards per pass)
+ (2x Yards per carry)
+ (.5 First downs)
- (Penalty yards/10)
- (2.5 Turnovers)
- (Opposing Team's Trench Counter)
Click here for more information on the Trench Counter
Florida had a +1.5 TC over Oklahoma in the National Championship game and their season TC average of +18.0 per game was higher than USC's 17.1, Oklahoma's 15.7, Texas' 12.9 and Utah's 9.0.
The fact that Utah is even in the conversation is simply part of the gift of going undefeated. Their schedule was far less challenging and their average Trench Counter per game was just 9.0, including a negative differential against Oregon State at home in their 31-28 victory and also in their 13-10 win at New Mexico.
The 16 AP voters that went with the Utes were clearly more swayed with that than the actual performance on the field. Impressive as their +9.9 TC victory over Alabama was in the Sugar Bowl, they were not exactly playing a football team at full strength (Andre Smith was suspended), nor were they particularly inspired to be in New Orleans.
I realize that there is the 'Utah did all they could do' argument by knocking down all 13 teams they faced, but if they simply would have steamrolled over the Air Force's and Weber State's and Michigan's (?) in more impressive fashion then the best team in the land argument would have more persuasive.
One loss Texas finishes ahead of the Sooners in the rankings, but they were outplayed by Ohio State by a TC of -4.5 despite their last second win and have very little to stand on.
USC was the team I was most interested in looking at for a possible split championship and the TC numbers don't warrant overtaking Florida.
The +17.4 TC against Ohio State was clearly the high water point of their season and after their bye they lost their Thursday night game in Corvalis and had a -10.1 TC against Oregon State.
Mixed in with a +51.3 TC against Washington State was a +2.4 TC in their 17-10 win at Arizona, +4.9 TC against Arizona State and +4.4 TC at Stanford. Their level of excellence in the Rose Bowl was incredibly clear on every snap, but the way they took their foots off Penn State's throats and allowed it to end a two possession game revealed why they did lose to Oregon State and flirted with a loss in Tucson.
Florida's lone loss of the season was to Ole Miss and it was certainly a flukish 30-31 result. They still had a +4.2 TC, collecting 14 more first downs, but the Gators turned the ball over three times on turnovers and Tim Tebow couldn't pick up a first down in the final seconds when they were just entering field goal range. That loss also looked better in the hindsight of Houston Nutt's 47-34 victory in the Cotton Bowl over Texas Tech.
Florida ran through their conference schedule, the rivalry game with Florida State and the SEC Championship against Alabama all in incredibly impressive fashion. Against Oklahoma, they took advantage of some questionable first half mistakes by the Sooners and completely dominated the second half behind Tebow, Percy Harvin and a suffocating defense.
Part of me would have liked the TC to show USC, Texas, or Utah as the superior team, but I'm in agreement with the maligned BCS.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM |
