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| Authored by Carl Setterlund - 7th September, 2005 - 2:23 am
 There is no position that comes at a higher premium in fantasy sports than the running back. It is essential to have a decent running game to make a run at a fantasy title. Often people reach for a mediocre player, desperate to fill the position; even more often though, people underrate the guys who are in line to make very solid contributions this year. You need to know which running backs to pick and when in your fantasy draft, which is why I?m going to help map it out for you.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - Even if you're a quarterback guy, even if you're a huge Manning fan, there is no excuse for not picking Tomlinson number one overall. Last year he rushed for 1,335 yards and 17 touchdowns while also catching 53 passes for 441 receiving yards. He did all this while battling a groin injury. Expect LaDainian to return to his 2003 form when he had 2,370 total yards and a lofty 100 receptions. This year Tomlinson should push for 2,000 rushing yards. Don't be too optimistic he'll get there, but I wouldn't say 1,800 is out of reach. Couple that with 500 or so receiving yards and LT should be the most productive back in the league. One key stat to remember is that Tomlinson's touchdown totals have gone up every year he's been in the NFL (10, 15, 17, and 18). Don't rule out 18 or 19 touchdowns again. Tomlinson is head and shoulders above the rest of the field this year.
Pick range: 1, LT should be the top overall pick. No excuses!
2. Shaun Alexander - I?ve heard arguments that Alexander is going to be the top back this year based on his steady play and soft schedule. However, I really feel that the Seattle pass offense is going to drop off this year and defense will zero straight in on Alexander. The lack of a good passing game is going to be what keeps Shaun back at "top fantasy player" instead of "the top fantasy player". One thing that has always been synonymous with the name Shaun Alexander is touchdowns. There is no goal line back in Seattle, Alexander hogs all the TDs himself. I expect him to stay around his average amount of touchdowns, which is a lofty 18, but I have trouble believing he will match last years rushing total of 1,696 yards. Reasonably, I think he will come up between 1,500-1,600 yards. One of the top running backs? Yes.
But the top overall player he is not.
Pick range: 1 ? 4, I can see the argument for #1 overall, but I think Alexander deserves to go around #3 or #4. He will not slip past #4 in any draft, I guarantee it.
3. Priest Holmes - Despite being limited to only half a season last year, Holmes was still a top 10 running back. When healthy, Holmes challenges Tomlinson for the ranking of top player, but his durability is a concern.
If completely healthy this year, Priest will put together an impressive season with over 2,000 total yards, but that's not what separates him from the field. Three seasons ago, Holmes collected 24 touchdowns. Two seasons ago, he racked up 27 and last year he was on pace to match that total.
Priest stands as the only running back with a legitimate shot at 25 touchdowns this year. Keep in mind that Holmes is an injury concern, which is why he is dropped to third behind Tomlinson and Alexander. No doubt, he is a risk/reward pick and if he pans out, Priest will be a steal and should propel you to the top of your league. However, per chance you pick a player that comes up lame with your 1st rounder, you could be in trouble. Remember the risk and decide if you want to take a chance at the reward.
Pick range: 2 ? 6, Holmes drops because of injury concern but shouldn't really slip out of the top 5.
4. Willis McGahee - Two years ago, McGahee was a risky pick in the first round by the Bills, and he ended up needing the whole season to rehab from a terrible knee injury. Last year he made his debut and impressively unseated Travis Henry on his way to a very good first season. In the last six games of the season, as the exclusive back, McGahee totaled 10 touchdowns. With first year starter JP Losman at the helm, McGahee will be expected to take the reins and carry the Bills offense this year. However, a good receiving corps of Eric Moulds, Lee Evans and (rookie 2nd rounder) Roscoe Parrish should be enough to keep defenses from lining too many people up in the box.
This year Willis should pass 1,500 rushing yards, but more importantly he should eclipse 16 touchdowns.
Pick range: 5 ? 15, McGahee should be around at 7 or 8 where his is a steal.
5. Edgerrin James - Back in 2000, Edge was suddenly the future of the NFL after putting together a second monster season. James suffered a terrible ACL injury in 2001 and had been relatively injury prone following that.
Finally, he has ditched the injury prone tag and at 27 is in the middle of his prime. This year, I predict Edgerrin will match last years totals of 1,500 rushing yards, 50 receptions and 500 rushing yards. This year with an improved defense and Peyton Manning at quarterback, the Colts will rarely be behind and Edge should get a few more carries than last year. The knock on James is that while he puts up huge yards, he has never really been a big touchdown guy. He should get around 10 touchdowns this season, but a couple more would propel him a little higher up this list.
Pick range: 4 ? 10, Edge is a tough player to get a hold on. Although he doesn't score many touchdowns, you shouldn't let him slip far out of the top 5.
6. Julius Jones - In the seven games at the end of the 2004 season, Bill Parcells decided to give the talented rookie a chance to shine. All Jones did was average 115 rushing yards and a touchdown a game over that stretch.
Julius Jones is really an eye of the beholder type player at this point. Many -- myself included -- believe that Jones will be the breakout running back of the year. He's got the talent, and Bill Parcells says he is going to utilize it. I think Jones is primed to have a 1,500 yard season to go along with 15 or so touchdowns. He will be a steal in many drafts.
Pick range: 5 ? 25, Don't reach too high for Jones, but he should be a target around the 10-15 range.
7. Deuce McAllister - Last year McAllister was a huge disappointment as he was hampered all year by a bum ankle. Don't think this is a trend though, McAllister is one of the top running backs in the game, and he should be treated in that regard. In 2004, his last healthy campaign, Deuce totaled over 2,100 yards, and this year he should come close to that. New offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy wants to play safer this year and pound the ball and go for safer short passes. With this philosophy in effect, Deuce should have a very good season. I'd expect something around 1,500 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards and 10-12 touchdowns. Also remember, with the recent hurricane tragedy in New Orleans, the Saints will have it rough this year, but they will also be playing with purpose. Whether or not this is going to help or hurt Deuce, well that's some food for thought for you.
Pick range: 5 ? 20, Depending on how other managers value Deuce, you could see him go at #5 or watch him slip to you at #15.
8. Domanick Davis - Critics of Davis often point out that he always has some sort of injury. Despite small durability issues, Dom Davis has established himself as one of the top young running backs in the league. Once again the Texans failed to do anything this offseason to equip quarterback David Carr with more weapons. This means that once again Davis will also be the second receiving option in an offense he succeeded in last year. Davis? superb receiving skills netted him an impressive 68 receptions and 588 receiving yards last year. Less impressive were his 1,188 rushing yards. Together however, Davis signed the Declaration of Independence and netted himself 1,776 total yards. He should repeat these numbers this year and end up with around 1,800 total yards. However, what really gives Davis his value is that he should push 15 touchdowns. The injury concern is all that keeps him from being a top 5 back.
Pick range: 8 ? 20, If you?re high on him, pick Domanick up before 10.
9. Corey Dillon ? On closer inspection, it?s no great surprise that Corey Dillon had a career year when you consider he exchanged Cincinnati?s offensive line with that of the world champions. Dillon claims he has completely bought into the culture, that he got serious in the offseason, and is in even better shape than last year. I have a hard time believing he improves on, or even matches last year?s totals but Bill Belicheck claims Dillon will be more involved in the passing game this year. 1,500 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards and 12 or so touchdowns is a reasonable expectation.
Pick range: 8 ? 15, Dillon is usually going around 10, which is right where he deserves to be.
10. Tiki Barber ? I like to call Barber the most perennially underrated back in all of football. Every year, last year was supposedly a fluke. While he has no chance at matching last year?s 2,096 total yards and 15 touchdowns, I?m no so convinced that him falling back to Earth is so far a drop. Yes, the new school (as opposed to the one featuring Ron Dayne,) thunder/lightning running game should take a small effect, and yes, Brandon Jacobs is the real deal, but Barber should again reach double digit touchdowns. Add onto that that he will rush for around 1,300 yard, catch an impressive 50 or so passes and go for about 500 yards receiving. Tiki is being underrated again this year, and I?m confident he will repeat as a top 10 running back.
Pick range: 10 ? 20, Barber often slips to the late teens where he is a steal.
11. Clinton Portis ? Last year the Redskins misused Portis and tried to bang him up the middle a lot. This year, Gibbs and company plan to utilize Ports? athleticism. Remember, Washington isn?t the same as Denver, but last year was a fluke. Portis will return to his dominant form.
12. Jamal Lewis ? With a recent ankle injury, an improved passing game and top backup Chester Taylor in the fold, I have trouble believing Jamal returns to his 2003 form (2,066 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns). He?s weak in the receiving department and I think he will drop off into the second tier.
13. Kevin Jones ? Jones is going to be hurt early by an injury to fullback (and lead blocker) Cory Schlesinger. Add into that a week 3 bye and early matchups against Baltimore and Carolina, and Jones should start off. He should finish strong though, and justify a top 20 selection.
14. Rudi Johnson ? This is the year Carson Palmer emerges as one of the elite quarterbacks of the league, but while the attention is on him it?s easy to forget about the real workhorse of the offense. Johnson isn?t flashy but he should again top 1,400 yards and score double digit TDs.
15. Curtis Martin - The ageless wonder should return again this year for another strong campaign. However, last year was really a renaissance season for Martin. C-Mart had only rushed for 1,500 yards once before capturing the rushing title last year and the passing game will be improved with the return of Laveranues Coles. Martin will still be good, but just not as good.
16. Brian Westbrook - Though he will not rush for 1,000 yards, Westbrook still gets rated relatively high because he is undoubtedly the best receiving back in the NFL. Brian is in line to total over 1,500 yards and come close to 10 touchdowns.
17. Ahman Green - The Green Bay offensive line is not what it used to be in days of old and I have to believe last year was more of an indication of Ahman?s production than his dream season in 2003. If he ever solves the fumble problems, he could rebound to an extent.
18. Lamont Jordan ? After being a career backup, Jordan finally gets his chance to shine in Oakland. It?s hard to predict how successful he?ll be, but with that passing game, Jordan should have plenty of open room to work with.
19. Steven Jackson ? This year Jackson, who is a physical specimen, will take over as the first string running back in St. Louis. However, Marshall Faulk will still get a lot of touches and will be the primary receiving back. Jackson will put up decent numbers but will not yet be a fantasy force.
20. Warrick Dunn ? Dunn is in the prime of his career and seems to be a perfect fit in Atlanta?s offense. He should again top 1,000 yards and despite the presence of TJ Duckett he will probably score 8 or 9 touchdowns.
21. JJ Arrington ? Dennis Green is going to hand the keys to the rookie from Cal and he should have an impressive rookie campaign. The passing game will open up the field for Arrington, who will top 1,000 yards.
22. Fred Taylor ? Once considered a top back, Taylor has really fallen off the last few years because he always seems to be an injury concern and does not score touchdowns. Despite that, he has topped 1,200 yards each of the past three years.
23. Chris Brown ? Last year Brown got injured and only played in 11 games, yet he still racked up over 1,000 yards. He is in no way a sure thing, and Travis Henry should push him for time, but Brown can produce with the best of them
24. Cadillac Williams ? Carnell will be challenged by Michael Pittman and Charlie Garner for playing time but he should prevail and produce in Gruden?s offense.
25. Tatum Bell ? It was disappointing to learn that Bell could not gain the starter?s spot over Mike Anderson. However, I believe Bell will take over by mid-season and finish strong. And how can you fail, picking a Denver running back?
26. Ronnie Brown ? Don?t worry too much about Ricky. Then entire team knows Ronnie Brown is the future and he will have four games to establish himself before Williams returns from his drug suspension
27. Kevan Barlow ? Many love to underrate Barlow because of his supremely disappointing performance last year. He should recover a little this year and reach the 1,000 yard mark.
28. Duce Staley ? This year, expect Staley to get a couple more touchdowns to go along with his yardage. He will split time with Bettis, but should be the more productive of the two.
29. Cedric Benson ? Holding out so long really hurt his fantasy value this year. It will take Cedric weeks to pick up the system and he will start out behind Thomas Jones. His talent should prevail in the end as he is a great fit for the gritty Chicago offense.
30. Deshaun Foster ? While he is starting the season behind Stephen Davis, I?ve always been a believer in what Foster can do. I don?t trust Davis?
knee and think Deshaun really puts it together in the second half of the season.
Top 5 Running Backs on the fringe:
1. Mike Anderson ? He starts out the year as ?the man? in Denver?s running game. While I wouldn?t jump at the opportunity to draft Anderson, he should produce well in the early going, making him more valuable in points only leagues.
2. Larry Johnson ? While I love Priest Holmes, it is important to recognize that he is no sure thing. Johnson will pick up a few carries behind Holmes and should Priest go down, Larry is ready to produce like a top 15 back.
3. Jerome Bettis ? As with Curtis Martin, it looks like nothing will ever slow down ?the Bus?. That is, except a calf injury. Bettis is limping into the season, but should produce once he gets healthier, especially on the goal line.
4. William Green ? It?s so hard to predict what will go on in the Cleveland running game, but Lee Suggs (high ankle sprain) can never remain healthy and Reuben Droughns has been a disappointment according to sources. Green is no sure thing, but will have another shot at the starting job, and he has the talent to hold onto it.
5. Travis Henry ? Not long ago were the days when Henry was considered one of the league?s better running backs. Chris Brown is a moderate injury risk and Henry has the talent to beat him out for the starting job.
Sleeper:
Mewelde Moore ? It seems like Michael Bennett can never remain healthy, and the door has remained ajar for Moore to walk in and make a substantial
contribution this season.
Deep Sleeper:
Ricky Williams ? You will have to wait four games to get anything from Williams, but with rookie Ronnie Brown and the likelihood he will be traded, Ricky should make some sort of contribution somewhere this year. Let?s not forget what he is capable of doing.
Very Deep Sleeper:
Frank Gore ? His draft stock was hurt because of injury concerns when he was coming out of Miami, but Gore has first round talent. If Kevan Barlow disappoints, don?t be surprised to see Frank thrown into the mix. |
