 |
| NFL Columns |
|
| Search |
|
|
|
|
| Draft Sim ID |
|
| Authored by Carl Setterlund - 31st August, 2005 - 2:34 am
 1. Peyton Manning - Don't expect quite the production we saw last season, but Manning is far and away the top quarterback. With the tools he has, in the offense he's in, expect another huge year. However, beware in running friendly leagues, because he loses some of that value and should be considered #1a along with Daunte Culpepper. When drafting Manning remember that he will not duplicate last year, but also remember that he has averaged over 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns a year for his career. Harrison, Wayne, Stokley and Edge look sharp as ever so expect 4200 or more yards and around
35 or so touchdowns once again.
Pick range: 1 - 5, Manning will go high, but he's worth it.
2. Daunte Culpepper - After bursting onto the scene in 2000, people have always had high expectations for Culpepper. Expectations that had not been met, that is until last year when Daunte hurled for 4700 yards and 39 touchdowns, all this with just a semi-healthy Randy Moss. Moss is gone and up-and-comer Nate Burleson has been thrust into the #1 receiver spot. The question is whether the likes of Marcus Robinson, Travis Taylor and rookie Troy Williamson will elevate their games to Daunte's level or whether they will bring him down to mediocrity. Like Manning, don't expect the same huge numbers as last year but also don't expect a complete drop off. Expect numbers around 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns from Culpepper. Don't quite think these numbers justify his ranking? Remember, Culpepper is also going to give you around 400 yards on the ground as well.
Pick range: 8 - 20, Don't take Daunte over an elite RB or Randy Moss, but keep him on your radar in the late 1st
3. Marc Bulger - It's truly Bulger's time to shine in St. Louis. With a running game that isn't quite sorted out and an impressive receiving arsenal, expect the Rams to air it out all day long. This year Bulger is once again armed with the tandem of Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce to go along with the ageless wonder out of the backfield, Marshall Faulk. However, the reason for his ranking lies elsewhere. Third and fourth receivers, Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald are among the best in the NFL and will create countless mismatches. Word out of St. Louis is that Mike Martz's offense has got that swagger again that made them the "Greatest Show on Turf". Add in a soft schedule and Bulger looks to be this year's suprise fantasy monster. Look for a 4000 yard season from Bulger to go along with 30 touchdowns.
Pick range: 30 - 45, Bulger should slip past 35 in most drafts. Gobble him up.
4. Donovan McNabb - It appears that whatever's going on off the field hasn't affected the chemistry between Donovan and TO, but I have a hard time completely buying this. I think McNabb's numbers will slip enough this year that he falls behind bulger as the fourth best QB. Add in that Owens has been battling injury and we might have an ugly situation waiting to unleash itself. Starting running back Brian Westbrook and tight end LJ Smith look good as ever but the lack of depth in the receiving core should end up being troublesome. With Pinkston (already a shaky #2) out for the year, who steps up? The quality is there, but the lack of quantity makes me believe McNabb will be hardpressed to improve on last year. If the Eagles didn't have a relatively easy schedule I would have to drop Donovan further. My projections have McNabb netting around 3500 passing yards along with 30 touchdowns and 300 or so rushing yards.
Pick range: 20 - 35, McNabb goes high so it might be smart to wait it out for a better value pick, but jump on him in the early to mid 20s.
5. Trent Green - I fret at putting Green this high because I think he's a risk/reward pick. People often forget that Trent is no young pup at 35.
The departure of Johnny Morton should affect the passing game to an extent.
Green has always made it happen with his all-pro receiving tandem of Tony Gonzalez and Priest Holmes, but I believe both and especially Holmes are injury concerns this year. If Holmes is healthy, another 4000 yard, 25 touchdown season could be in line. I worry though when I look at the receiving core that features Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker. Again, I'd personally proceed with caution when drafting Trent Green, but you can't argue with the way he has consistently performed over the past few years.
Pick range: 25 - 40, If Green is available at 30, take a long hard look.
6. Tom Brady - People have said time and time again that Brady is a guy you want to have when the game is on the line, but not someone you want on your fantasy team. Every year Brady does more and more to help bury this notion.
Worried about the tough schedule? Worry not, because Brady is one of the few players that thrive against the toughest defenses the NFL has to offer.
Belicheck has let Brady air it out more and more over the last few years and an improved receiving core should only help keep this trend going. Corey Dillon looks to get more involved in the passing game and a healthy Deion Branch and (sleeper tight end) Ben Watson could make this unit the best Brady has worked with. Having a 4th receiver like Troy Brown or Andre Davis can only mean great things for a guy who loves to spread it around. I'll go out on this one and say Brady should have close to 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns.
Pick range: 35 - 50, If you see him last past 35, seriously consider Brady
7. Brett Favre - Brett is another guy I have a hard time putting high on this list. He'll be 36 when October comes around and the Packers franchise is deteriorating. Ahman Green has never looked worse and the offensive line is a shadow of what it once was. However, it's hard to deny that Favre still has the arm, especially with reports of him doing some serious conditioning over the offseason. You have to wonder how Favre can fail to throw 3800 passing yards this year and 30 touchdowns with Javon Walker, Donald Driver and Bubba Franks on his side. What Favre has going for him are good weapons and a weak defense, which means he'll be playing from behind and going vertical often. What he has going against him is a weakening offensive line and a rough schedule. Watch for Favre's interceptions to steadily increase this year. Don't expect him to fall of the map, but then again don't expect the fantasy monster we once new.
Pick range: 35 - 50, Favre will probably be gone earlier than he should go, but look for him in the late 30s or early 40s.
8. Kerry Collins - I think we'll find this year that Lamont Jordan can carry a load at running back, but don't expect him to be the focal point of the offense. You really can't lose this year picking Collins (that is, unless you reach for him too early). It's hard to imagine that Collins' cannon for an arm and wide receivers Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry and Doug Gabriel won't combine to make a potent offensive team. Defenses will face a hard decision deciding whether to double cover Moss or not, but either way they are going to get punished. The Raiders are going to air it out this season and despite Collins not being an elite QB, he will still put up top notch numbers. A reasonable expectation this year is something to the tune of 3600 yards and 30 touchdowns, but watch out for those 25 interceptions.
Pick range: 45 - 60, Collins is rated low in a lot of leagues, so expect to see he there at around 50.
9. Michael Vick - The name Vick has become taboo in the minds of a lot of managers and they laugh at the unlucky soul who ends up with him. However, I'm convinced this is the year Vick comes close to fulfilling his fantasy potential. Mike has been working hard to develop chemistry with his receivers and believe it or not, I think the release of bust Peerless Price will mean good things. Alge Crumpler will carry a load as always, and expect Warrick Dunn to add to the short game. Don't underestimate receiver Michael Jenkins and the core the Falcons have. Brian Finneran is solid and Dez White and Roddy White should make contributions as well. Put Vick down for 3000 passing yards and 18 throwing touchdowns. Remember as well that Mike will push 1000 yards rushing and give you another 5 touchdowns there.
Pick range: 50 - 65, Vick will slip in a lot of drafts, but take him if he's there around 60.
10. Jake Plummer - Don't for a second think that Plummer is a franchise quarterback or is someone you put a lot of faith in. Also remember though that he gets underrated all the time. I'm not sure if anyone out of the backfield will be the receiving threat that Reuben Droughns was last year but the wideouts look impressive. Rod Smith will fly under the radar and gobble up another 75 of Plummer's passes. Even more importantly, the development of Ashlie Lelie as a deep threat allows Plummer to air it out and go for the gold. Expect Plummer to slip in your draft, but not in the numbers. He should rack up around 3500 passing yards, 200 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns. Watch out for those pesky interceptions though, because he throws about 20 a year.
Pick range: 65 - 80, Plummer flies way under the radar. If you don't have a QB and are picking at 70, snatch him up.
11. Jake Delhomme - Losing "the Moose" will hurt but the return of Steve Smith, and improving Keary Colbert and the addition of Rod Gardner mean Delhomme will have another solid year.
12. Drew Brees - It's hard to believe Brees will replicate the magic of last year. Yes, he has LT and Gates but a weak receiving core and a rough schedule mean you should steer yourself away from Drew.
13. Aaron Brooks - A running game revival means less passes, but look for them to be better passes. It's hard to see how Brooks won't at least be average with Joe Horn and Donte Stallworth.
14. Carson Palmer - I really like the chemistry Palmer is developing with Chad Johnson and TJ Housh. He will have a coming out party sometime this year, even with a schedule that includes multiple games against Baltimore and Pittsburg. Look for Chris Perry to be a suprise contributor.
15. Matt Hasselbeck - Oh, how the mighty have fallen! The only guy that can catch a pass on the Seahawks is Darrell Jackson and he can't do it by himself. Seattle will primarily be a running team with an unimpressive aerial attack.
16. Byron Leftwich - Byron has a good receiving core on his side with Jimmy Smith, the developing Reggie Williams and rookies Matt Jones and Chad Owens. Look for the offense to be more liberal this year, which should benefit Leftwich's numbers.
17. Brian Griese - When he's had the chance, Griese has put up the numbers. Look for him to have a good year under the radar with a solid receiving core of Clayton, Galloway and Hilliard.
18. Drew Bledsoe - Don't make him throw in the towel just yet. Witten, Glenn and Keyshawn should be good enough weapons for Bledsoe to throw to.
Expect Bledsoe to do better than last year's Cowboy signal caller, Vinny Testaverde.
19. Steve McNair - I'm one of the few who think McNair still has something left in the tank. Problem is, McNair's got the gas, and the transportation, but no destination. Drew Bennett and Tyrone Calico do not count as a wide receiving core. Granted, Ben Troupe will help him out.
20. Chad Pennington - The Jets' offense should be improved this year, but I still have serious doubts about Pennington's arm. Coles and McCariens will get open, but I question whether Chad can still get them the ball.
21. Kurt Warner - Dennis Green has a thing with reviving past glory with aging quarterbacks. I have no trouble believing that he can turn Warner around with receivers Boldin and Fitzgerald at Kurt's disposal.
22. David Carr - The problem in Houston is that Carr could be a top 10 QB, but the franchise just refuses to improve the receiving core and offensive line. Andre Johnson and Dom Davis are good weapons and Carr should have another decent year but a smaller touchdown total.
23. Ben Roethlisberger - As of now I still believe Big Ben is primary a game managing QB. It doesn't help that Plaxico Burress has been replaced with Cedrick Wilson. Injuries in the backfield may cause Cowher to put in a few more passing plays.
24. JP Losman - This kid has the potential to be a great quarterback down the road. I'm not going to put him in the gutter because of Moulds and Lee Evans, but I wouldn't expect monster numbers either. McGahee will carry most of the offensive load this year.
25. Eli Manning - Year two should go a little smoother for Manning, but there will still be bumps in the road. Amani Toomer is not what he once was, but Shockey, Burress and Barber are dangerous weapons.
26. Kyle Boller - I have very little faith in Boller. He does have good weapons though.
27. Gus Frerotte - Chambers and McMichael aren't bad targets, now if only he was a legit starting quarterback.
28. Joey Harrington - I have absolutely no faith in Harrington or his receivers ability to stay healthy.
29. Kyle Orton - He could turn a few heads this year. Orton should connect with Muhammed often this year, but I don't see him doing a great deal fantasy-wise.
30. Tim Rattay - Could put up okay numbers if he had any good receivers. Of course, then you've also got the #1 pick breathing down your back. Don't be fool though folks, this isn't Drew Brees.
Honorable mention: Trent Dilfer, Billy Volek, Alex Smith, AJ Feeley, Mark Brunell, Jeff Garcia |
