| Authored by Jeff Risdon - 25th April, 2007 - 11:12 pm
 It’s finally draft time! The player workouts and visits are done, and now it’s last-second jockeying and posturing by the teams and the agents.
This mock reflects what I believe the teams will do in the first 3 rounds, not necessarily what I would do or what I consider good value or solid picks. I’ll post a “what I would do” 1st round mock on the message board; check it out later this week.
There are several changes from the last mock, most of which stem from my conversations with some scouts and pro personnel people, one prominent national NFL writer, and tips shamelessly stolen from insiders I trust.
1st Round
1. Oakland Raiders--Jamarcus Russell, QB, LSU.
Forget the trade rumors; ignore the talk about Calvin Johnson or Brady Quinn. This is the least suspenseful #1 overall pick since Carson Palmer.
2. Detroit Lions--Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech.
Johnson will be the #2 pick; the question is “which team?” The Lions will either deal the pick to the highest bidder (TB, ATL, or SF) and drop down to take Gaines Adams or Leon Hall, or else keep Johnson, who is the best talent in the draft and does fill a need for Detroit.
3. Cleveland Browns--Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame.
Every time I talk with Browns insiders it becomes clearer they are taking Quinn. This is another pick that could very well be traded, and if the Browns do trade down, they will happily take Adrian Peterson.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers--Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson.
If the Bucs can’t trade up to secure Calvin Johnson, the next best thing they can do is draft Adams to provide a fresh pass rusher and shore up the run defense in one fell swoop.
5. Arizona Cardinals--Joe Thomas, T, Wisconsin.
Lead pipe lock pick if he’s on the board for Arizona, and Thomas fills a huge void on the Cards’ OL. The top 5 picks are going to look exactly like this on 90% of all mock drafts, with good reason.
6. Washington Redskins--Laron Landry, S, LSU.
Another case of a team openly looking to trade down, and Atlanta might accommodate them to get Landry, who is a very safe bet to make an immediate impact. The Skins do like Jamaal Anderson a lot as well; the question is how far can they fall and assure themselves they can still get him. Landry will not fall below #8.
7. Minnesota Vikings--Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma.
Do the Vikings need him? Of course not, but Cleveland and Houston both do. A trade up to get Brady Quinn by the Vikings would leave the Browns in this spot; a deal down to get Leon Hall or Dwayne Bowe would give this pick to Houston, Buffalo, or Green Bay. I’m picking the slot more than the team here at #7, unchanged from the last mock.
8. Atlanta Falcons--Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville.
If they stay at #8 and Landry is gone, this is a lock pick. Okoye’s precocious athleticism and intelligence make the inevitable growing pains more palatable, especially when his NFL coach was his college coach, as is the case here.
9. Miami Dolphins--Leon Hall, CB, Michigan.
He answered questions about his speed and footwork in Indy and during private workouts, re-elevating himself back into Top 10 status. The Dolphins strong pass rush will mitigate his iffy deep coverage skills, and his run support from the corner is outstanding. Another unchanged pick, though Miami is widely speculated to be looking to deal up to get Quinn.
10. Houston Texans--Levi Brown, T, Penn State.
The Texans want Peterson but would be happy to take Brown here to shore up their weak OL. Brown is a superb run blocker with a great attitude and plays nasty, which will help whomever winds up being the RB. Sleeper pick: Dwayne Bowe.
11. San Francisco 49ers--Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska.
He can play DE in a 3-4 or slide inside in 4-3 sets or obvious passing downs. A big, physical specimen with good instincts and useful quickness, he will help the pass rush and make plays in the run defense. This would be Detroit’s pick if the rumored trade goes down.
12. Buffalo Bills--Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss.
Willis is a tackling force with better measurables than expected. He’s a very safe pick for a team in desperate
need of an impact LB and defensive leader.
13. St. Louis Rams--Ted Ginn Jr., WR/RS, Ohio State.
His slower-than-expected recovery from his foot injury is a legit concern, but he still clocked a 4.4 40 despite being noticeably gimpy. The Rams WR corps is aging, and Ginn offers immediate help at PR/KR while he further develops as a WR behind Holt, Bruce, and Bennett.
14. Carolina Panthers--Greg Olsen, TE, Miami.
Olsen blew away the rest of the TE field in Indy with his speed, hands, and seriousness. The Panthers have almost no other receiving options to help Steve Smith, and Olsen was a willing blocker in college to boot. Another team looking to trade down but still get the same player.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers--Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State.
Posluszny is a low-risk tackling machine who has the athletic ability and size to play anywhere needed in a 3-4 or a 4-3, very useful for a team that might be making a transition.
16. Green Bay Packers--Marshawn Lynch, RB, California.
Perhaps the ultimate “need” pick of the 1st round. Lynch has shown good vision and a powerful burst, though it seems most scouts find him a boom/bust type. I’ve never been sold on this pick even though guys with considerably better connections than me almost unanimously have had this pick set in stone for months. Let’s just say I won’t be surprised to see Dwayne Bowe or Robert Meacham go here.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars--Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh.
His meeting with the team went quite well, and the Jags have made no secret they are looking to revamp their secondary. He fits their scheme better than the remaining highly-rated CBs, and his abilities as a return man are an added bonus.
18. Cincinnati Bengals--Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida State.
Timmons is fairly raw and more of an athlete than a football player at this point, but he’s shown excellent growth and strong potential. He’s also a good citizen and a vocal leader, two things the Bengals defense sorely needs. Sleeper pick: Aaron Ross.
19. Tennessee Titans--Robert Meacham, WR, Tennessee.
The Titans have many needs, and their philosophy appears to be to take the best player available that fills a big need. Meacham adds much-needed speed and skill at WR. Ginn will not fall below here.
20. New York Giants--Alan Branch, DT, Michigan.
Branch is sliding down draft boards based on concerns over stamina, leg health, and drive. But you cannot ignore how frequently he dominated the middle of the line in college, and the Giants are in dire need of someone to do that for their defense. Sleeper pick: Marshawn Lynch, if he is on the board.
21. Denver Broncos--Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas.
This is a lot lower than most projections, but the buzz on Anderson has soured. He’s the best pure pass rusher outside of Gaines Adams, and the Broncos will trade his weakness against the run for the 10+ sacks he can contribute right away.
22. Dallas Cowboys--Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU.
Very well-rounded WR with great hands and good ability to get open, and the Cowboys need help at the position. Terry Glenn is on the downside and TO is, well, TO. Bowe is as high as 13th on some draft boards, but more pressing needs will let him fall here, much to Jerry Jones’ relief. Sleeper pick: Brandon Meriweather.
23. Kansas City Chiefs--Joe Staley, T, Central Michigan.
The retirement of Will Shields puts even more emphasis on the Chiefs rebuilding their OL. Staley is supremely athletic and can play either tackle spot. They love Robert Meacham in this spot if he’s still around.
24. New England Patriots (from Seattle)--Aaron Ross, CB, Texas.
With Asante Samuel not signed long-term and their seemingly chronic need for cover men, Ross is a good fit for the Patriots. His KR ability and solid tackling off the corner give him added value to a team that needs both.
25. New York Jets--Jon Beason, LB, Miami FL.
Has shown enough versatility to play ILB or OLB, and in a 3-4 defense that is critical. The Jets sorely need better tackling impact from the LB spot, and Beason has the aggressiveness and closing burst to help right away.
26. Philadelphia Eagles--Brian Leonard, RB/FB, Rutgers.
I had this pick two mocks ago and got ridiculed; now at least 4 other prominent mocks have this pick. The Eagles aren’t afraid to reach to get their man, and they love Leonard.
27. New Orleans Saints--Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State.
Anyone who watched the Saints last year knows they are in desperate need of CB help. McCauley is the best overall package of size/speed/strength of the 1st day CBs, but he hasn’t always played to expectation. Even his down moments are an improvement. They would prefer Ross or Revis.
28. New England Patriots--Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami, FL.
He’s earned all the questions about his character, but it tends to obscure just how skilled he is. The Patriots have to replace Rodney Harrison, and Meriweather is a rangy playmaker in his mold. Spending both 1st rounders on DBs might seem odd, but Belichick & Co. have repeatedly drafted multiple guys at one area in past drafts with lots of success.
29. Baltimore Ravens--Justin Blalock, G, Texas.
Blalock is a man-mountain who excels at run blocking and sealing a hole. He played some tackle in college, and the Ravens need youth and versatility up front, as Tony Pashos left and Jonathan Ogden is contemplating retirement. No change from last mock.
30. San Diego Chargers--Michael Griffin, S, Texas.
Racks up tackles all over the field and is an outstanding athlete. Lots of scouts question his instincts and coverage skills, but it’s hard to deny his ability when you see him near the ball on every play on film. The Chargers biggest need is a physical safety, and Griffin fits the bill nicely. Another unchanged pick.
31. Chicago Bears--Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn.
Mauling physical presence that will add much-needed depth and youth to a strong but aging line. Depending on the Lance Briggs situation (I believe he won’t be traded on draft day), this pick could be dealt.
32. Indianapolis Colts--Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee.
The Colts desperately need physical bulk in the DL, and Harrell has the speed and agility to make plays in the backfield. If he weren’t so injury-plagued he’s be a top 15 pick.
2nd Round
33. Oakland Raiders--Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC.
34. Detroit Lions--Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas.
35. Tampa Bay Bucs--Ryan Kalil, C, USC.
36. Cleveland Browns--Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida.
37. Chicago Bears (from WAS via NYJ)--Steve Smith, WR, USC.
38. Arizona Cardinals--Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State.
39. Atlanta Falcons (from HOU)--Tim Crowder, DE, Texas.
40. Miami Dolphins--Reggie Nelson, S, Florida.
41. Minnesota Vikings--Jason Hill, WR, Washington State.
42. San Francisco 49ers--Arron Sears, G/T, Tennessee.
43. Buffalo Bills--Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio State.
44. Atlanta Falcons--Tanard Jackson, DB, Syracuse.
45. Carolina Panthers--David Harris, LB, Michigan.
46. Pittsburgh Steelers--Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame.
47. Green Bay Packers--Zach Miller, TE, Arizona State.
48. Jacksonville Jaguars--Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State.
49. Cincinnati Bengals--Justin Durant, LB, Hampton.
50. Tennessee Titans--Eric Wright, CB, UNLV.
51. New York Giants--Craig Davis, WR, LSU.
52. St. Louis Rams--Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland.
53. Dallas Cowboys--Lamarr Woodley, DE, Michigan.
54. Kansas City Chiefs--Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina.
55. Seattle Seahawks--Ray McDonald, DT/DE, Florida.
56. Denver Broncos--Laurent Robinson, WR, Illinois State.
57. Philadelphia Eagles--Daymeion Hughes, CB, California.
58. New Orleans Saints--Buster Davis, LB, Florida State.
59. New York Jets--Usama Young, CB, Kent State.
60. Miami Dolphins (from NE)--Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford.
61. Baltimore Ravens--Stewart Bradley, LB, Nebraska.
62. San Diego Chargers--Aundrae Allison, WR, East Carolina.
63. New York Jets (from CHI)--Demarcus Tyler, DT, NC State.
64. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from IND)--Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia.
3rd Round
65. Oakland Raiders--Tony Ugoh, T, Arkansas.
66. Detroit Lions--Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State.
67. Cleveland Browns--Jonathan Wade, CB, Tennessee.
68. Tampa Bay Bucs--Doug Free, T, Northern Illinois.
69. Arizona Cardinals--Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia.
70. Denver Broncos (from WAS)--Quincy Black, LB, New Mexico.
71. Miami Dolphins--Adam Koets, T, Oregon State.
72. Minnesota Vikings--Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware.
73. Houston Texans--Fred Bennett, CB, South Carolina.
74. Buffalo Bills--Lorenzo Booker, RB, Florida State.
75. Atlanta Falcons--Samson Satele, G/C, Hawaii
76. San Francisco 49ers--Brandon Siler, LB, Florida.
77. Pittsburgh Steelers--Chris Henry, RB, Arizona.
78. Green Bay Packers--Sabby Piscitelli, S, Oregon State.
79. Jacksonville Jaguars--Aaron Rouse, S/LB, Virginia Tech.
80. Tennessee Titans--James Marten, T, Boston College.
81. New York Giants--Lorenzo Booker, RB, Florida State.
82. St. Louis Rams--Ryan Harris, T, Notre Dame.
83. Carolina Panthers--Josh Gattis, S, Wake Forest
84. Kansas City Chiefs--Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn.
85. Seattle Seahawks--Tarell Brown, CB, Texas.
86. Denver Broncos--Marshall Yanda, G/T, Iowa.
87. Dallas Cowboys--Mason Crosby, K, Colorado.
88. New Orleans Saints--Brian Robison, DE, Texas.
89. New York Jets--Turk McBride, DT, Tennessee.
90. Philadelphia Eagles--Paul Williams, WR, Fresno State.
91. New England Patriots--Zak DeOssie, LB, Brown.
92. Buffalo Bills (from BAL)--Andy Alleman, G, Akron.
93. San Diego Chargers--Michael Coe, DB, Alabama State.
94. Chicago Bears--Rufus Alexander, LB, Oklahoma.
95. Indianapolis Colts-- Michael Bush, RB, Louisville.
96. San Diego Chargers--Matt Spaeth, TE, Minnesota.
97. San Francisco 49ers--Eric Weddle, S, Utah.
98. Indianapolis Colts--Ika Alama-Francis, DE, Hawaii.
99. Oakland Raiders--Leroy Harris, C, NC State. |
