Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Last week?s forecast was pretty accurate as I went 3-1 and basically talked myself out of picking the Giants over the Bucs. My friend and colleague Andrew Perna bested me, so this week I hope to sharpen the forecast models and even the ledger with my colleague.
As a couple of readers pointed out, I failed to give a year-end summary of my forecasting prescience. The final tally: 164 up, 91 down, according to my rough math skills. Keep in mind I went to college for 7 years and didn?t take a single math class except statistics, which was taught by a TA who only knew about 6 words of English and just wrote everything on the chalkboard and then pointed at it, saying ?You learn? in an impossibly thick Vietnamese accent.
Speaking of college, I?d be remiss to not congratulate the LSU Tigers for beating Ohio State in the title game. There is a good thread on the game in the college football forum, where you can check out a lengthier breakdown and discussion. The five-cent ?ICness? summary:
$.01--LSU always seemed to have 3rd and 1 and kept the chains moving which took the teeth out of the Buckeye defense.
$.02--The Tigers did a great job making OSU pay for every mistake they made.
$.03--Beanie Wells was fantastic, and Todd Boeckman was not, and OSU got away from pounding Wells too early; he was more likely to make up a 2-TD deficit by himself than by OSU throwing the ball.
$.04--Fox should immediately be stripped of any future CFB telecasts. From the grossly inaccurate announcers, to missed replays, to late bounces from commercials, to poor explanatory analysis of penalties and play calls--it made me pine for Bryant Gumbel and John Madden and the local public service channel production.
$.05--Anyone who cries for USC or Georgia sharing the title with LSU, get over yourself and get real. And for those crying that Ohio State not be allowed in BCS games anymore--check out Oklahoma?s BCS track record or the entire ACC.
The Games
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: Eli Manning got the playoff monkey off his back last week; this time it?s Tony Romo?s turn to exorcise playoff demons. With TO either out or hobbled, he?ll have a tough time. Making it tougher will be the Giants' front four, who continue to get good pressure without much blitz help. Rookie DB Aaron Ross will be critical--if he can use his corner skills to lock down TE Jason Witten, the Cowboys are in real trouble. Cowboys' OC Jason Garrett needs to use Marion Barber much more frequently. I do think the Dallas defense will present major problems as they are almost a polar opposite of what the G-Men faced in Tampa last week. I really like where the Giants are mentally, and I?m not sure the bye was in the best interests of the Cowboys. Between TO and Jessica Simpson and Bill Parcells raiding the coaching staff, I just don?t believe the Cowboys will have the necessary focus and cohesion. Even though the forecast simulators in my head say the Cowboys win 59 times out of 100, I?m taking the Giants to continue their road warrior status. New York 26, Dallas 20.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: Seattle will need to play a complete 60 minutes to beat the Packers; something they did not do against the Skins last week. There are quite a few angles with this one, but to me it all boils down to pass protection. Which team can force the opposing QB into making mistakes, which both Favre and Hasselbeck have proven they will? I trust Favre in Lambeau Field more than I trust Hasselbeck, who made some truly awful decisions last week. I also like the ability of the Packers' LB's to snuff out the flares and underneath routes to the backs and slot WR's, though I do question the deep cover skills of their safeties. These Seahawks are a dangerous foe because they?ve got playoff experience and confidence, and I would pick them to beat any other NFC team in any other locale. But not Green Bay, not in the land of beer, cheese, and butterburgers. Green Bay 34, Seattle 30.
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: The rested, healing Colts draw the Chargers, who slogged through a physical battle with Tennessee last weekend. There?s a good chance Antonio Gates will miss the game for San Diego, and that is a huge problem for the Bolts. Without him to keep Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders honest in coverage, Sanders can effectively shadow Ladanian Tomlinson all game. The Chargers own secondary will be put to the test by Manning & Co., and while I do think they?ll make some plays, they?re not going to keep the Colts from outscoring their own offense. You can ignore the first meeting back in the regular season when the Colts were minus 9 regulars, including 4 of their top 5 pass catchers. I give the Chargers very little chance in this one, even less of a chance than I give Jacksonville against New England. Indianapolis 31, San Diego 16.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots: Jacksonville has suddenly emerged as the trendy sleeper pick, the one team nearly everyone thinks presents the best chance to end the Patriots' run at perfection. I do not share that sentiment. The Patriots have two real vulnerabilities that a team has to be able to exploit to beat them--making their LB's work in coverage and having the ability to pressure Tom Brady up the gut without exposing the secondary. You accomplish the former by using the TE and lots of multi-WR sets and underneath crossing routes, plus flaring out the RB's. Jacksonville has perhaps the least accomplished talent at the TE position in the entire league, and going across the middle is not something Ernest Wilford or Reggie Williams (two WRs I do like) do particularly well or frequently. Only two other teams (MIN and HOU) threw less to their RB's than the Jaguars. The Jags look to be without their best DT (John Henderson), their best overall LB (Mike Peterson), and likely their starting safety (talented rookie Reggie Nelson). Though they do have better depth than most teams, you cannot hope to line up missing key pieces and expect to slow down the most prolific offense in history. The only way I see the Patriots losing is in a shootout, and the Jaguars are simply not designed to win a game 35-34. This also represents one of the biggest coaching mismatches in playoff history, and that favors the Patriots too. New England stays sharp with a 37-10 romp over the Jaguars.
You can console Jeff for his beloved Buckeyes, or book him for radio spots, at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
