Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Every year several rookies break out and immediately establish themselves as NFL forces. So who will become this season's Ben Roethlisberger, Anquan Bolden, or Tommie Harris? There's always a few surprises, but here are some pretty good bets for sudden impact.
1. Derrick Johnson, LB, Kansas City. The Chiefs run defense was all-or-nothing in 2004--either a 1 yard stop by a pretty good line, or an 18 yard jaunt desperately stopped by a diving safety. Johnson brings great speed, excellent field sense, and a nasty streak every dominating LB possesses. He can cover backs and tight ends, he sheds blockers well, and when he hits someone they go down, period. His outstanding preseason play has drawn comparisons to Takeo Spikes and Brian Urlacher. If he's even close to those Pro Bowlers, the Chiefs are significantly better on D. Pair their explosive offense with even an average defense and the Chiefs have the ability to go very deep in the playoffs. There are still some glaring holes on D, but Johnson capably plugs the biggest one.
2. Antrel Rolle, CB, Arizona. He's already taken over the #1 corner spot and infused the secondary with much-needed swagger and tackling ability. The Cardinals secondary has struggled for years in run support and covering more than one good wideout on a team. In a division with the pass-happy Rams and Seahawks, having a shutdown corner is requisite for winnig. Rolle appears to be that guy, displaying great closing speed and a physical style that can disrupt shorter passing games favored by so many teams. With an upgraded LB corps and a very strong pash rush from the front four, Rolle could easily create 8-10 turnovers.
3. Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland. This goes against my general theme of recognizing only players on potential playoff teams, but Edwards deserves the exception. He's already the best player on the team as a rookie who held out for half the preseason. His size, strength, great hands and desire for the ball will make him an elite receiver for years He might even be able to make Trent Dilfer look competent. Edwards and fellow rookie Charlie Frye give the Browns faithful some hope for future offensive potency.
4. Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia. With Pinkston out and the TO saga sure to never quell, the Eagles have to find someone who can play WR and catch more than a few McNabb passes. Billy McMullen and Greg Lewis have both disappointed, but I believe the Eagles found a legit #2 wideout in Brown. He's big enough to provide a nice target, fast enough to get open, and showed at Georgia he's an outstanding blocker downfield. If you figure McNabb throws 25 passes a game and TO, tight end LJ Smith, and Brian Westbrook out of the backfield see 18 of those throws, that leaves quite a few balls for Brown to thrive. And when Owens misses two or three games for not having his head on straight, Brown suddenly becomes the #1 wideout for a Pro Bowl QB. He has the opportunity and the talent to take full advantage.
5. Alex Barron, RT, St. Louis. At 6'7" and 320 pounds, he's the mirror image of linemate Orlando Pace, one of the best OL of the past decade. While Barron lacks Pace's speed and agility, he's already proven in the preseason against a couple of pretty good D-lines that he's got the technique and strength to open and seal some big holes for the running game. He won't get beat for many sacks either, which means Marc Bulger will have time to find Holt, Bruce & Co. on the deep routes that Coach Martz loves. He's not a sexy pick, but that doesn't mean he's not going to have a big impact on a high-octane offense.
6. Demarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas. He's been fantastic in the preseason, flying all over the field and disrupting many a blocking scheme. He should lead all rookies in sacks, and could have the type of immediate impact Terrell Suggs and Dwight Freeney had on their defenses. The Cowboy defense ranged from barely adequate to amazingly pathetic last season, giving up big play after big play and often quitting in discouragement. Ware will help the confidence as well as the actual play.
7. Erasmus James, DE, Minnesota. He's more of a question mark than anyone else here, but he's in the right scenario to make a big splash. Playing next to Pat Williams means he'll get single blocking, and there's not many tackles that can handle his burst and speed. The Vikings look to have many early leads, which means a premium pass rushing end can rack up big numbers and help out a shaky secondary. He won't figure to do much against the run, but that's not why they drafted him.
And for the later round guys, I like:
Fred Gibson, WR, Pittsburgh--he's the speed receiver and also his 6'4" size will ensure he sees plenty of red zone passes
Brandon Jacobs, RB, NY Giants--a big guy with quick feet, good power complement to Tiki Barber
Dave Rayner, K, Indianapolis--if Vanderjagt falters at all, he's the man, and he's got the leg to prove it
Leroy Hill, LB, Seattle--not as heralded as 2nd rounder Tatupu, but he's a bigger, faster playmaker and a sure tackler
Every season sees at least two high-profile 1st round busts, and this year will be no exception. Trying to predict these is an exercise in psychic luck. But when I stared at my palm for twenty minutes while chanting "who will fail" repeatedly, these names showed up:
Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago
Adam "PacMan" Jones, DB, Tennessee
Fabian Washington, CB, Oakland
It'll be too difficult to judge Alex Smith in San Francisco. That team lacks skill so blatantly at so many spots that a return of Steve Young in his prime couldn't get that team 6 wins. I don't like the chances, though, of making such a radical transformation of styles and being successful for several seasons.
