Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Week 4 features lots of intra-divisional contests, which should provide a much more accurate glimpse into the states of reality for several teams. This is the last week where any preseason bias gets eliminated--the teams are what they are, not what they might have been anymore.
The weather models finally proved more accurate in Week 3, as the forecast went 11-5. Curiously, I?m better picking the spread on the season (32-14-2) than I am straight up (28-20). Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Wayne Allan Root! And does anyone even have the ability to call 900 numbers anymore? My phone company automatically blocks them. Here?s some free advice from Uncle ICness: The next time you feel you need investment advice from an over-cologned, dazzlingly bejeweled huckster with greased back hair and a suit that costs more than your car, my advice is to invest that money with loved ones instead. Buy your dad a nice steak dinner, or treat your girlfriend to a surprise bouquet (if you?re married you might want to get one for your wife too!), or get your dog a fluffy new bed.
Sunny Games
Denver Broncos (9) at Indianapolis Colts (2): The Broncos are equipped with the tools needed to stymie the Colts offense--great cover corners, good safety help, run-responsible LBs, speed rushers off the edge. But seeing the sputtering Jaguars rip off an 18-play TD drive against a Denver D and then continue to run right through the front 7 is not a good sign. Nor is it a positive for the Broncos that their OL got manhandled last week, unable to create any running lanes despite often having a 7-on-4 advantage. The Colts back 7 crowds the box and finishes tackles as well as any team. For two very good teams, these two feature some of the worst punt and kick coverage units you?re ever going to see on playoff teams, but neither team features the dynamic return man to exploit the potential advantage. Stupid fun factoid pointed out by my neighbor, a diehard Colts fan: Peyton Manning has put up 6 of his top 8 career yardage games against teams with orange as a primary color. Sometimes you just don?t argue with the inanely bizarre. Indianapolis 27, Denver 16.
New England Patriots (1) at Cincinnati Bengals (16): The Patriots defense gets a real test with a potent Bengals offense, but the Bengals D is nowhere near up to the challenge of stopping the Pats high-flying offense. This is one of those games that everyone is going to believe will be a shootout, and that?s usually an indication that one of the defenses rises up and plays their best game of the year. Because the Patriots D is already great, that leaves the Bengals underwhelming unit. Yes, they gave up 51 points to Derek Anderson and the Browns. But they do have a knack for forcing turnovers in bunches, and I?m one of those oddballs that believes the Patriots will come back to Earth at some point. The Jungle on Monday night is as good a place as any for that to happen, but I?m not sure the Bengals can close the deal without injured RB Rudi Johnson. New England 30, Cincinnati 24.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11) at Carolina Panthers (8): This game will have a huge impact on the NFC South race, and the Panthers are one of the few teams who would prefer this game be on the road instead of in Charlotte. The speed of Tampa LBs Barrett Ruud and Cato June all but eliminates RBs that don?t go North-South with authority, something both Deangelo Williams and Deshaun Foster have not done well this year. Carolina?s starting QB, Jake Delhomme, is questionable with a bum elbow and backup David Carr isn?t the type to throw over the top of an impressive Bucs secondary. Tampa can live with Steve Smith catching 12 balls so long as they?re all shorter, more crowded routes. The Bucs OL gets better every week, and Panthers star DE Julius Peppers has not shown the fire that makes him so special. Tampa Bay 24, Carolina 20.
Partly Cloudy Games
Chicago Bears (15) at Detroit Lions (20): Which ineptitude wins out? The Bears cannot pass the ball, the Lions cannot stop the pass. Losing superb DT Tommie Harris is a huge blow to the Bears; last year when both Harris and S Mike Brown (already out for the season) were out, the mighty Bears defense ranked 27th. And this year?s edition is significantly thinner, plus both CB Nathan Vasher and LB Lance Briggs are hobbled as well. Bears Coach Lovie Smith mercifully pulled the plug on Rex Grossman, but new starting QB Brian Griese isn?t the type to light up the putrid Lions secondary. This features an intriguing battle between a RB that can?t break a tackle (Bears Ced Benson) and a back 7 that misses more tackles than your local middle school team (the Lions). Detroit must control the line of scrimmage both ways and at least try to run the ball, something they do with far less frequency than any other team. Unless Devin Hester comes to the rescue against an awful Detroit special teams coverage unit, the Lions are the pick. Lions 31, Bears 20, but if Hester breaks a return, flip the score.
Seattle Seahawks (7) at San Francisco 49ers (19): Big NFC West tilt, and it?s a toughie to forecast. The Seahawks have a nasty proclivity to play to the level of their opponent, often letting games they should win handily (this being one of them) stay in late peril. Hopefully the football cognoscenti are coming to my long-held realization that these Niners are still a ways away from being a good team; they?re simply no longer a bad team, though their pathetic offense begs to differ. Seattle?s speedy, attacking 3-4 is similar to what the Steelers used to smother Frank Gore last week. Turning SF into a team that has to throw to move the ball is a recipe for an easy Seattle win, but the Niners are a proud, well-coached team that can exploit poor tackling, something that often plagues the Seahawks back 8. Seattle wins a 22-20 squeaker.
Philadelphia Eagles (14) at New York Giants (25): Two teams that notched their inaugural wins last week battle to try to stay in the Cowboys NFC East wake. The Giants salvaged their win in no small part by changing to an umbrella-type zone pass cover D, and their embattled secondary responded. They?ll need a lot more of that this week, because Donovan McNabb and Kevin Curtis absolutely torched a Detroit defense with a better pass rush and similar cover scheme last week. Bad time for the Giants to have stud WR Plaxico Burress slowed by a bum ankle, because without his field-stretching ability the Eagles can plant an extra safety in the box to help contain the Giants running game. This one might wind up being a highly entertaining shootout, as the Eagles are without top CB Lito Sheppard and superb S Brian Dawkins is slowed with a neck injury. Special kudos to the Giants OL, which has played consistently tough all season and has allowed QB Eli Manning to make the next step in his often-painfully slow progress. Eagles 36, Giants 30.
Windy & Cold Games
Pittsburgh Steelers (4) at Arizona Cardinals (21): Pittsburgh keeps steamrolling opponents; the Steelers rank in the top 4 in adjusted stats in offense, defense, and special teams. That means that one unit can have a subpar week and the Steelers can still pound the other team. The Cards are playing a physical, attacking defensive style that fits their personnel well, but it seems like every mistake they make gets exploited for points. No Hines Ward means the Steelers will be missing their top WR and downfield blocker, which also means Cards S Adrian Wilson can do what he does best (blitz) more often. If the Cards passing offense was as explosive as expected they?d have a great shot here. But Matt Leinart was rightfully yanked for Kurt Warner down the stretch last week and WR Larry Fitzgerald looks a step slow and often disinterested. This will be the first time the Steelers have had to worry about an opponent in the 2nd half all season, but their pressure D and superlative special teams are simply too much for the improving-but-not-there-yet Cardinals. Pittsburgh 24, Arizona 17.
Green Bay Packers (5) at Minnesota Vikings (24): Last week Green Bay?s defense blunted the high-powered Chargers attack. Anyone who thinks the Vikings offense is high-powered probably thinks Vladivostok would make a nice vacation destination in February. The Packers offense has found a comfort level with the intermediate passing game and steadily moving the chains. Minnesota has a solid base defense but proved vulnerable when faced with lots of WRs running all over the place, which is what the Packers have done quite well lately. Brett Favre has played some of his worst games in Minnesota, and Vikings rookie RB Adrian Peterson can turn any touch into a big play. If one or two big plays are enough thanks to GB turnovers or consistent mistakes, the Vikings will steal the win, but I think Green Bay simply has too much defense. Packers 20, Vikings 16.
Kansas City Chiefs (26) at San Diego Chargers (13): Watching Chargers QB Philip Rivers this season is eerily similar to watching Joey Harrington in his early Detroit days; a physically skilled QB who lacks confidence in his WRs and seems afraid to get touched, let alone hit. These Chargers are in danger of proving my long-held thesis that teams whose best receiver is a TE cannot sustain a passing attack, even though Antonio Gates is as good as any TE in the last 20 years. It?s simply too easy to load an extra man or two in the box to contain the running game, and as great at LT might be, he?s not getting any open running lanes. The Chiefs D plays a very similar style to the Packers, though not as stout up the middle. That defense thrives on swarming to the ball, and if the offense can?t exploit the weakness at safety, it?s in trouble. The problem for the Chiefs is that the Chargers D can still completely dominate for long stretches, and the KC offense has major issues at WR and QB of its own. In what might be an aesthetically unpleasant affair, San Diego beats Kansas City 20-6.
Flash Flood Warning Games
Oakland Raiders (23) at Miami Dolphins (28): I saw something in the Raiders last week that portends a brighter future. They carried themselves with the aura of a team that expected to win in a close game, not a team worrying about making a mistake that causes a loss. And it worked, as they eked out a win over Cleveland by using the same tactic that cost them a win against Denver the prior week: calling time out just before a last-second FG. Oakland has put up at least 20 points each week and their OL keeps playing better. Miami found loads of success running the ball last week, but any stats against the Jets run defense are automatically discarded. Their own run defense is an ongoing struggle, and with no Zach Thomas once again it will continue to plague the Dolphins D. Miami almost always beats the Raiders; they?ve won 8 of the last 10 meetings and all 6 at home in that stretch, but I just don?t trust Trent Green at QB anymore, certainly not with Ronnie Brown running the ball behind him and their soft OL. Oakland?s defense shows its fangs in a 31-10 Raiders victory.
Houston Texans (18) at Atlanta Falcons (30): If not for Deangelo Hall?s 3rd quarter meltdown last week, the Falcons would already have a win. They desperately need to win this one, because they?re not going to have a better opportunity the rest of the season. Houston impressively won its first two games, but comes in missing both starting WRs and C Steve McKinney. That means the starting Texans wideouts will be Kevin Walter and the oft-cut Andre Davis, neither of whom would see the field for 30 other teams even with injury issues. The thing the woeful Falcons do best is contain the passing game thanks to a decent pass rush and capable secondary. This sure looks like a running game battle, and ATL has the edge there too, especially with the Texans missing their top interior lineman. So long as they don?t turn the ball over at key times, the Falcons should notch their first win. Atlanta 20, Houston 13.
Baltimore Ravens (12) at Cleveland Browns (27): Two examples of how to handle QB controversies here. Baltimore usurped former young starter Kyle Boller with vet Steve McNair a season ago, but they kept Boller?s confidence high and ready for game action by letting him know they still believed in him. Cleveland flipped a coin to determine its starting QB, and promptly yanked winner Charlie Frye in 20 minutes of game action and dumped him for a box of tape. How anyone could not see that Derek Anderson was so vastly superior to Frye all summer, or how quickly he invigorated a moribund offense with strong-armed competence, speaks volumes about the Browns coaching staff. It has to also make wunderkid Brady Quinn wonder exactly why he wanted to play in Cleveland too. Some games are decided not just on the field but in summer training camps and offseason decisions. This is one of those games, because the Ravens are struggling on the field and vulnerable to a Browns team that is suddenly confident throwing the ball down the field. But this is a game a good team (the Ravens) finds a way to win and a bad team (the Browns) finds a way to lose. Baltimore 33, Cleveland 27.
St. Louis Rams (31) at Dallas Cowboys (3): The Rams are down 3 starting OL and star RB Steven Jackson. Even at full strength the Rams would have to play a near-perfect game to beat the Cowboys, who are all dancing to the same drummer right now and he?s beating a happy tune. It just doesn?t get any worse for the struggling Rams D than the balanced Cowboys. Dallas romps 37-12.
New York Jets (22) at Buffalo Bills (32): The Bills are simply running out of bodies. Already down 5 projected starters, they lost their QB and their best LB last week. The Jets aren?t very dynamic, but they?re not a team that beats itself, and right now the Bills need that kind of help to break into the win column. Good week to use the Jets in the survivor fantasy games. Jets 27, Bills 10.
Insanely early byes
Jacksonville Jaguars (10), New Orleans Saints (29), Washington Ethnic Slurs (17), Tennessee Titans (6). Memo to Roger Goodell: if you want to make your league even better, implement the bye system I proposed four years ago. Each week from Weeks 6-9, one full division from each conference gets a bye, followed by two weeks of intra-divisional play.
Drinking in the Dorm Room game
Putting my 10-2 college pick record to the test?
West Virginia at South Florida: I?m pressed for time this week, so I?ll keep this simple. USF is a legit ranked team, but WVU showed me last week their defense is quickly improving in gap control and discipline to the assigned scheme. That means the Mountaineers can score less than 40 and still avenge a painful loss last year to the up-and-coming Bulls. WVU 30, USF 20.
Other games: Purdue 50, Notre Dame 27
Oregon 34, California 31
Clemson 24, Georgia Tech 19
