Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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The regular season is upon us! Time to spend my Sundays at Buffalo Wild Wings, enjoying every game with hundreds of ravenous fans of many teams with some adult beverages and big-screen, hi-def feeds of all the NFL games.
The first week is always the toughest to forecast because there is no track record and no real sense of the prevailing winds. In light of that, the game summaries this week are abbreviated. The power rankings will not be included until after two weeks are played. As always, I?ve included a college game as well, and I strongly encourage all you NCAA fans to jump on the message board here. We?ve got a very good core group of college football minds, but we?re always welcome to fresh voices!
Since I?m a proud Buckeye fan living in Michigan, many people have asked me about the stunning upset at the Big House last Saturday by Appalachian State. The short(er) answer: Michigan lacks speed across the defense and the secondary is not deep enough to handle teams that consistently play more than 2 WRs. Coach Lloyd Carr did not have his team ready and defensive coordinator Ron English, the embattled Carr?s presumed successor, once again simply could not come up with any way to handle a mobile QB, agile linemen, and fast wideouts. The special teams were awful too, and that made a huge difference. I?ve never been one who thought Carr needed to go; I think he?s a good (not great) coach who runs a fairly clean program with lots of very impressive young student-athletes, not just football players. But I don?t see any way he can survive this debacle short of winning out, including the bowl game.
The Games
New Orleans at Indianapolis: Possible Super Bowl preview kicks off the season, and both teams return largely intact. I think the Saints offense vs. the Colts defense is the most advantageous match-up. Tough to pick against the Super Bowl champs in their first home game though. Indy in a shootout 37-31.
NY Giants at Dallas: Always tough to start with a division rival that has a better defense than offense. Both teams fit that bill, and if Terry Glenn can?t go for the Cowboys, the Giants secondary will look a lot better. The team with the QB who answers the bell better will win, and Eli Manning always excels when the games matter least. Giants steal a roadie 20-17.
Atlanta at Minnesota: I seriously question if there will be 300 combined passing yards in this game. I?d favor the Falcons but I?ve seen Joey Harrington play at his absolute worst against significantly inferior Vikings defenses than what they have now. Minnesota 23, Atlanta 13.
Carolina at St. Louis: My two choices for NFC Wild Card teams start against one another. Carolina?s questions at safety and the painfully obvious problems transitioning to a new blocking scheme on offense tilt the scales firmly towards the explosive Rams. St. Louis 30, Carolina 17.
Tampa Bay at Seattle: This is seemingly a mismatch in favor of the Seahawks at home, but the Bucs have an experienced defense that?s played together for a long time, a key for early season upsets. If only they had the better kicker? Seattle 24, Tampa Bay 22.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Here?s all you need to know: Cleveland is starting Charlie Frye at QB instead of wunderkid Brady Quinn because they fear facing such a skilled defense will ruin his confidence and/or get him physically crushed. Never mind what will happen to Frye, who sucks less than most pundits will have you believe. The Browns D should be game but not game enough, and Pittsburgh always wins in Cleveland. Steelers 27, Browns 13.
Denver at Buffalo: This could wind up being one of the best games of the week to watch. The Broncos strong secondary should be the difference, but if rookie RB Marshawn Lynch can find some holes the Bills have a good chance to win. I?ll take Buffalo at home while Denver works on finding their WR and DE pecking orders. Bills 30, Broncos 25.
Kansas City at Houston: I don?t normally put much stock in preseason games, but the Chiefs offense was continually dreadful all summer. Houston has improved on both sides of the ball, and this could be a breakout party for rookie WR/KR Jacoby Jones. Houston 24, Kansas City 15.
Miami at Washington: Another game where I could present a compelling argument for either team. In cases like that on opening weekend, I always go with the team with the more dynamic defense. That?s the Dolphins, and this is one of the few games where they might have a legit chance to outscore their opponent. The Skins are already nursing two key injuries in Clinton Portis and Marcus Washington, which makes the pick easier. Miami 20, Washington 10.
Philadelphia at Green Bay: Until the Packers prove they have anyone who can run the ball, or catch the ball besides the banged-up Donald Driver, Green Bay will struggle against good teams. The Eagles are better than good, and experienced enough not to stumble here. Eagles 27, Packers 13.
New England at New York Jets: The loss of Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison makes this a closer match-up, but the Jets don?t have the ability to beat a team over the top, the one place the loaded Patriots are vulnerable. I have a sneaky suspicion the mentor (Bill Belichick) is going to give his prized pupil (Eric Mangini) a painful lesson. Patriots 37, Jets 16.
Detroit at Oakland: A meeting between two teams that are going to struggle to get wins, but if you made a team of the Lions offense and the Raiders defense, it could make the playoffs. Unfortunately the other units have to play as well, and Oakland?s offense and Detroit?s defense are each dreadful until proven otherwise. The Lions bad D is better than the Raiders bad O, thus the Lions notch a rare road win. Detroit 30, Oakland 27.
Tennessee at Jacksonville: Ignore the fact that the Titans won the last meeting; Jacksonville completely dominated both match-ups last season, and the Jags have improved while the Titans have regressed. Vince Young is going to steal some games this year, but this ain?t one of ?em. Jacksonville runs wild 31-10.
Chicago at San Diego: The other marquee matchup of the opening weekend features two potentially dominating defenses that are a pleasure to watch. Bears QB Rex Grossman has problems when he?s not sure where the pressure is coming from, and the Chargers bring heat from all over the formation. Oh yeah, they have some guy named LT too. San Diego 23, Chicago 16.
Baltimore at Cincinnati: I would take the Bengals at home, but neither starting offensive tackle has practiced all summer and they?re working in two new starters inside as well. The Ravens defense has their swagger back, and the offense finally has the weaponry to stretch the field. In a game with potentially big-time playoff implications, Baltimore gets the early upper hand with a 33-20 road win.
Arizona at San Francisco: Frank Gore?s hand injury concerns me, as does SF playing a secondary with lots of new bodies in new places. The Cards outstanding skill position talent returns intact, and the Niners weak DL won?t put the Cards weak OL at its usual disadvantage. Normally I loathe picking rookie head coaches in their debuts, but a little research finds that the last 25 guys in that position went 15-10, and often with worse teams than what Ken Whisenhunt has in the desert. Arizona 33, San Francisco 30.
Drinking in the Dorm Room Game:
Virginia Tech at LSU: The winner of this game should be the #1 team in the country, until proven otherwise. Neither team looked real sharp in their opener, though LSU?s defense dominated. The biggest question mark for both teams is at QB, where neither Sean Glennon nor Matt Flynn has proven he can go out and win a game against a very good opponent. The Hokies are going to need a big game from their superlative special teams to pull off a win in Baton Rogue, but even that probably cannot overcome the strong advantage the LSU D-line has over the VaTech O-line. LSU 19, Virginia Tech 12.
