Knowshon Moreno, Donovan McNabb, Mike Shanahan and David Garrard enter pivotal seasons where they will be scrutinized if they do not perform at a high level.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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Quarterbacks are traditionally the position that is the easiest to fully evaluate prior to the annual Combine. About the only thing that could change the order here is an unknown injury or character concerns.
I really like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin, though I am not sold that either will be as dynamic in the NFL as Cam Newton. I prefer both of them to prior #1s Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford at the time they entered the league. After the top two, good luck if you need a franchise quarterback right away...
1. Andrew Luck, Stanford.
Pros: Pedigreed (father Oliver was a NFL QB) pro-style pocket passer with experience in a NFL offense. Ideal size. Great athlete with excellent body control and balance. Can make every throw in the book with an innate sense of touch. Has quick feet and can quickly set up for a release. Very comfortable moving around the pocket but also extending the play with his legs while keeping his eyes downfield. Can deliver the strike on the move at full gallop. Very good arm strength, can zip the ball down the field outside the numbers. Throws deeper outs as well as any QB in the NFL already. Exceptional anticipation and understanding of what the defense is going to do. Has proven he can stand tall under pressure and deliver accurate throws with bodies all around him. Completed over 70% of his passes in 2011 despite having a revolving door of receivers, threw passes to 18 different receivers. Has a great work ethic and very humble persona that makes guys around him want to play better and rise to his level. Very confident in his abilities without being arrogant.
Cons: Does not always throw the ball as hard as some would like on deeper throws. While a decent runner he tends to leave himself open to big hits. Strikes some (not me) as a little too prefabricated and perfect. Looks terrible with a scraggly beard. Seriously, it is hard to find anything not to like.
NFL Comparison: Peyton Manning in a more athletic body.
Forecast: Luck is the best all-around prospect at any position that I have seen in my professional career, and this will be my eighth draft. Absolutely the #1 pick and an incredibly safe bet to be a solid starter right away.
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor
Pros: Incredibly gifted athlete, former track star. Very light on his feet and hyper-quick. Made a huge leap forward as a passer from 2010 to 2011, displayed more fluid mechanics, better touch, and significantly better ball placement and timing. Showed very precise accuracy in 2011, had more TDs than incompletions through the first few games. Has a very natural rhythm and poise to his game. Throws a very catchable ball and almost babies it into the receiver even with decent zip. Has matured into a passer that can throw his receivers open reliably. Has the arm strength to make any throw. Longer throws stay tightly spiraled. Played well in poor weather (wind, rain). Has a rare elusiveness as a runner, lethally slippery in the open field. Became more of a buy-time scrambler than a straight runner as his career progressed but still flashed the jets and agility when needed. Good toughness, bounces up after taking hits. Has a knack for the big play. Intelligent student who is very well-liked by everyone. Embraced being the figurehead of a lesser program and building it to prominence, showing loyalty and a positive attitude. Has shown consistent improvement and a desire to keep getting better.
Cons: Has taken very few snaps from under center. Does not always get proper depth on drops even when in shotgun. Lacks ideal height. Comes from an offense that was largely spread wide and very fast paced, which is foreign to many NFL coaches. Did not face much pressure as teams consistently tried to force Griffin to beat them with his arm and not his legs, has seldom seen real blitzes. Still developing his read progressions, rarely gets past his second read before running out and trying to make things happen. Made a big leap his final year after being in the same system for three years, largely against some truly awful defenses; might need some time to adjust to a more pro-style offense and new system.
NFL Comparison: A more sturdily-built Michael Vick with a stronger desire for self-improvement.
Forecast: A potential franchise QB that could have the highest ceiling of any player in this draft. Will be a top-four pick, most likely #2 overall. Has some bust factor to him.
3. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
Pros: Very polished passer with a concise delivery and excellent mechanics. Has a quick release with a strong, balanced base. Mature, experienced professional athlete; played minor league baseball and is a few days older than Aaron Rodgers. Has worked very hard to improve to what he is, was not given anything. Accuracy on passes to 25 yards is excellent. Throws a very catchable ball will proper zip and clean rotation. Completed over 72% as a senior. Tough, played most of 2010 with a torn thumb ligament. Understands the offense and his role and strengths very well. Has good arm strength and touch on longer throws, can throw over the top.
Cons: Weeden is 28 and has very limited developmental potential. Makes some bizarre decisions with the ball. Is more of a check-down passer than most recent upper-tier prospects. Not very quick when moving around, relies on quick release and short plays to avoid pressure. Offense did not ask him to make many NFL reads or consistently challenge defenses down the field. Almost never took snaps from center. Faced lousy defenses on a regular basis and his offensive system has not always translated well to the NFL for prior QBs. Very limited upside, is already whatever he is going to be. That has appeal for some but repels others.
NFL Comparison: Matt Hasselbeck without the mobility, a less athletic Sam Bradford.
Forecast: His advanced age makes him a tough cloud to read. Is more ready to start than any QB but Luck in this draft, but the little wiggle room with his age and the college system he comes from cast doubts. I like him as an early second rounder to a team like Washington or Cleveland. I suspect he does not come off the board until at least pick #50 and could very well not make the top 75.
4. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
Pros: Very gifted athlete with great build for the position. Burst onto the scene after playing wideout for the Aggies and was their most prolific receiver before being moved to QB when Jerrod Johnson forgot how to throw. Very natural pocket presence, stands tall and sees the field well. Very good arm strength with a high, consistent release point. Fluid mechanics, clean feet, good weight transfer. Seldom throws balls that are not a tight spiral. Coached by former NFL head coach Mike Sherman in a pro-style offense. His father was a QB as well. Throws on the run very cleanly and accurately. Has the arm strength and vision to make throws across the field, good improvisational skills though his decision-making in those situations needs work. A real threat to run and has excellent open-field running skills. Good leader with a team-first attitude and natural charisma. Works hard at improving his game. Excellent student, two-time Academic All American.
Cons: Still learning the intricacies of the position, only played QB for one and a half seasons in a weak defensive conference. Forces too many throws. Needs to work on reading coverages and accounting for all the defenders. Tends to miss high when he misses, which leads to tipped balls and INTs. Makes far too many panic throws when the rush gets to him quickly or the play does not go as expected. When he does so his mechanics go out the window. Has a bad tendency to look at his primary target from before the snap to completing the throwing motion, which led to a lot of careless INTs. Played much better in 1st halves of games, had trouble adjusting to adjustments and sealing the deal in pressure situations; the team blew multiple 20+ point second half leads and his untimely turnovers and poor decisions played a major role in all of them.
NFL Comparison: Aaron Rodgers when he came out, Jay Cutler with foot speed.
Forecast: The two guys I compared him to, Rodgers and Cutler, are best-case scenarios and Tannehill is not close to their level yet. But the tools are there and every negative is coachable. A risky first or early second rounder for a team that needs him to start from Day One. Will be a top 10 pick, hopefully to a team that does not rush him.
5. Brock Osweiler, Arizona State.
Pros: Great size, the tallest QB in the nation at 6-foot-8. Great arm, can throw the ball in a tight spiral 65 yards down the field. Has nice accuracy and touch on short and intermediate throws. Good athleticism for his height, has fairly nimble feet and more of an initial speed burst than expected. Throws a catchable deep ball that is very seldom underthrown. Sets his feet quickly and has a strong base and weight transfer. Can really gun the ball into tight spaces when needed. Uses his height well to see over the defense and get himself good throwing lanes. Anticipates holes in the zone well. Generally gets the ball out of his hand quickly, especially on short routes. Got progressively better at throwing receivers open. Made big progress in the intricacies of the position in 2011, his first year as a full-time starter.
Cons: Has started just 15 games in his three seasons. Despite being tall, he does not throw over the top and gets his fair share of passes batted down. Uses a motion reminiscent of Bernie Kosar way too often. Needs lots of room to step into his throws. Needs work on going through route progressions. Far too often he stares at his primary target from the moment he gets the snap until he finishes his release. Has worked almost exclusively from the shotgun in an offense designed to get the ball out quickly. His default move to escape pressure is to rear back and throw the ball off his back foot in a strange sort of javelin motion. Not real accurate on the move, ball tends to sail. Has decent initial escapability but lacks the speed and comfort to extend the play very long.
NFL Comparison: Ryan Mallett with mobility and no character issues, best-case is Drew Bledsoe.
Forecast: Osweiler was a surprise early entrant and he is far from a finished product, but he has a lot of desirable tools and has shown he is willing to learn. Just based on what I have seen from him so far I would be real hesitant to take him higher than the end of the third round. Do not be surprised if some team takes a chance on him in the final few picks of the first round. Could be a real find, could be Dan McGwire 2.0.
6. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin.
Pros: Mature but diminutive field general. Has played minor league baseball and his throwing motion reflects a baseball background. Excellent mobility, always on his toes and ready to move in any direction to buy himself time and find throwing lanes. Decent arm strength with good initial velocity. His deep balls have unusual arc to them but he seldom floats one. Very savvy with fakes, body positioning, and reacting to the defense. Can be quite accurate on short and intermediate routes, showed major improvement in that area after transferring to Wisconsin his final year. Good anticipation on deeper routes, can throw his man open deep. Intelligent on and off the field. Consummate leader, quickly rallied new teammates around him after a post-graduation move from NCSU. Very competitive.
Cons: Short even for shorter QBs, measures under 5-foot-11. Struggles when asked to sit in pocket and deliver a ball on a short set. Always in motion; seldom sets his feet and waits for the route to come to him but instead dances around trying to get clear sight lines and throwing angles. Tends to make extraordinarily circuitous scrambles when pressured, will often retreat 10+ yards and rely on his athleticism to make a play. That can work in college but NFL coaches and defenses will not allow it. Showed tremendous statistical improvement at Wisconsin when surrounded by better talent and a significantly better O-line; is he a product of the environment or did he really make a quantum leap? Was a very marginal prospect despite strong experience at NCSU. Struggled taking snaps under center during Senior Bowl week, consistently pulled his hands up too quickly.
NFL Comparison: A really short Ryan Fitzpatrick
Forecast: His height is a very big obstacle that limits his draft stock. If he were even 6-foot-1 he would be a second round pick, but I have a hard time seeing him drafted before the fifth round.
7. Chandler Harnish, Northern Illinois
Pros: Gritty scrambler with a fearless mentality. Excellent runner, sees the field like a running back and carries himself in the open field like one too. Accelerates quickly and has deceptive speed. Strong leadership presence that never stops talking on the field or sidelines. Comes from a shotgun offense with lots of sight reads and intricate timing, and he has largely mastered it. Very good at reading the defense and taking what it gives him. Does a good job quick setting his feet. Has a consistent high release that does not change when he is on the move, which is frequently. Has good anticipation skills. Controls the game at a fast rhythmic pace. His coaches and teammates love him.
Cons: Lacks ideal size and is on the thick side. Has a wildness and wild-eyed feel to his game. Accuracy is hit and miss. Arm is not as strong as he thinks it is, causing him to force balls into tight windows that close before the ball gets through (see CMU 2011 and Buffalo in both 2010 and 2011). His throws often have a wobble to them that gets worse closer to the sidelines. Has taken few steps from center in his career. Seldom challenges the defense over the top or deep on the sidelines. Leaves some passes on the field in favor of running, though he did a better job at that in 2011.
NFL Comparison: Jeff Garcia with meat on his bones, Bruce Gradkowski
Forecast: Projects as a 5th/6th rounder with legit developmental upside. Like Jeff Garcia, could wind up being a breath of fresh air in the right system and environment.
8. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State
Pros: Consummate leader that has continually overachieved expectations. Very driven with a palpable confidence and extremely positive attitude, not unlike Tim Tebow. Has very nice touch on short and intermediate throws. Has the arm strength to stick the outside throws. Generates a lot of shoulder torque with his throwing motion. Has the accuracy to hit a receiver on the dead run. Can really get into a groove and chew up yards in bunches with rhythmic passes and excellent accuracy. Understands the timing of the offense. Plays better in clutch situations, has his highest QB rating in the 4th quarter. Has a mature poise to him that rubs off on his teammates. Excellent play action fake. Has an effective pump fake and can quickly reset and throw to the same target. Strides into his throws with a sturdy base. Deceptively effective runner with a long stride. Comes from a great family environment.
Cons: Consistently inconsistent from his sophomore year of HS thru his Sparty career. Has stretches where he is indecisive, panicky, and inaccurate for no rhyme or reason. Not as impressive of an athlete or physical specimen as most of his peers. Lacks acceleration and does not always look comfortable moving around the pocket. Has an alarming tendency to stare down his receiver. Lacks great field vision, misses some open looks and sees others late. Deep balls can float, and he has thrown more than a few ducks. Gets more than his share of passes batted down by linemen, does not get consistent arc on his throws.
NFL Comparison: somewhere between Andy Dalton and Chris Redman.
Forecast: It is hard for me to not root for Cousins, a native of Holland, Michigan where I lived for most of the last decade; I officiated several of his high school games. At times legitimately great, other times maddeningly lousy, it intrigues me to see whether his positives outweigh the drawbacks in terms of draft stock. I give him a 5th round grade and see a quality backup and positive presence that can emerge into a starter down the line. I suspect his high character and prolific clutch performances will get him drafted in the second round and put expectations too high.
9. GJ Kinne, Tulsa
Shorter, West Coast-style spray gun type QB. Very accurate in the short and intermediate game, throws a very catchable ball. Hits receivers in stride where and when they want the ball on quick-hit throws. Has some ability to move around and find throwing lanes. Rarely makes incorrect pre-snap reads. Charismatic leader that maxes out his talent. Tough to the point where you almost want to protect him from himself. Good football IQ, processes info quickly. Arm strength is subpar, really struggles to get zip on the ball and his deeper throws tend to float. Keeps his weight back too long, weight shift not always in concert with his shoulder motion. Can lose sight of the safeties when extending the play and trying to throw. Willing runner but not fast or very adept at it. He reminds me quite a bit of Matt Flynn or a less mobile Colt McCoy, the man he once failed to beat out at Texas that forced him to transfer to Tulsa. Looks like a quality backup that will fare as well or poorly as his weapons provided. 6th/7th round pick but I like him a little more than that.
10. BJ Coleman, Chattanooga
Well-built Tennessee transfer that stepped up his game as a senior before getting hurt. If he were a college basketball player he would be a Dukie that opposing fans love to hate, has that hard-nosed mentality and wears his high football IQ and scrappiness on his sleeve. Strong arm with a quick, high release that produces great velocity. Can buy time for himself and reset quickly in the pocket. Accustomed to making throws under pressure and in traffic. Can really rifle the ball down the field, very rarely underthrows deeper routes. Has some ability to run but takes a few steps to really get moving. Biggest issue is accuracy, just a 57% passer at the FCS level and it comes from a lack of touch more than the ball being off-line. Throws the ball as hard as he can no matter the distance of the throw, except when he overcompensates and floats it. Has a stiffness to his body when he throws, as if he is bracing for the hit even when no pressure is present. Doesn't always throw from his toes, can be flat-footed. Not good at throwing on the move; poor balance, all shoulder torque. Natural born leader and willing learner who lit up Shrine Game week with those attributes. Has a higher ceiling than some of the guys above him but needs a lot of work to get there. Reminds me of Matt Moore or Kyle Orton, guys that can start for many teams but always leaves them wanting someone a little better. Coleman needs at least a year of development to get to that point. Will be a 4th/5th round pick.
11. Nick Foles, Arizona
Tall, thick and blessed with very big hands. When he sets his feet properly he has good velocity and excellent range on his throws. Has a nice, catchable deep ball. Worked hard to win over his teammates and coaches after some early adversity. Has decent touch but tends to baby the ball on shorter throws. Good-not-great accuracy, particularly between the numbers, will make his receivers work a little along the sidelines. Ball placement runs hot and cold at times. Comes from an offense where the routes and reads are quick, seldom had to progress past "two." Really struggles when pressured; mechanics go out the window and he throws off his back foot with a lower arm angle. Needs a clean pocket. Little escapability or creativity. More of a reactive thrower than most peers. Plodding on the move and lacks vision to create when the initial play breaks down. Looked better in Senior Bowl 7s drills than 11s, not as sure of himself in more pressured action. Look for him to shine at the Combine. His size, likability, and arm will get him drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round but I would not touch him before the 5th.
12. Ryan Lindley, San Diego State
Tall, athletically built. Streaky touch passer with a high, long delivery. Very good at play action, sells the fake and quickly scans to see where the defense bites. Plus arm strength, though his deeper balls will wobble a little. Comes from a pro-style offense with an NFL RB and former NFL/USFL QB Brian Sipe as his personal coach. At times looks very good, properly leading receivers and showing a firm grasp of the offense and how to attack the defense. But just as often he looks wild, sawing off his throwing motion and having his accuracy go out the window. Tends to break down and make poor decisions when pressured. Not much of a running threat and struggles to extend plays with his legs. Forces too many throws, which led the Aztec offense to morph to get het ball out quicker and focus on shorter routes in 2011 yet his completion percentage precipitously declined to just 53%. Looked nothing like an NFL prospect in losses to Michigan and TCU, and did not help his stock much with a pedestrian week at Senior Bowl practices. 6th/7th rounder that could wash out quickly.
13. Darron Thomas, Oregon
Surprise early entrant known more for his running than throwing. A gifted scrambler that throws well on the run, even at near-top speed. Good arm strength, has a quick wrist flip that makes his over-the-top throwing motion seem more compact. Reactive thrower that needs to learn how to stick with longer routes and not get impatient. Accuracy is spotty and he has shown to be streaky. Thinly built. Has poor pocket presence and awareness, would rather quickly bail and try to create on the edges. Not as polished, thick or poised as former Duck Dennis Dixon, now the Steelers oft-injured backup. Could get a look in the 6th-7th round by a team trying to throw a bone to his agent, Drew Rosenhaus. Might have a future role a la Josh Cribbs as a return man/special teamer/gadget play guy.
Others in some order of personal preference:
Austin Davis, Southern Miss: Former walk-on started for four years despite average traits, do not count him out.
Aaron Corp, Richmond: USC transfer had surprisingly little to work with as a Spider.
Kellen Moore, Boise State: Great collegiate winner, not much of an NFL prospect.
Dominique Davis, East Carolina: A real project with some legit talent to work with, but very raw.
DeAndre Pressley, Appalachain State: The FCS version of Denard Robinson, will be a slot receiver in the NFL.
Case Keenum, Houston: Injury concerns and average arm trump amazing productivity and great vision.
Patrick Witt, Yale: I have only seen bits and pieces, incomplete evaluation.
Dan Persa, Northwestern: Would be higher if he could stay healthy and grow a couple of inches.
Stephen Garcia, South Carolina: 2nd/3rd round talent ruined by drugs and immaturity.
