Following an exciting first round, we break down the favorite picks, most pleasant and biggest surprises, most under-appreciated pick, worst move and more.
Peyton Manning, Mario Williams, Mike Wallace and Carl Nicks headline an intriguing free agent class that can shift the balance of power this offseason.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere to sign Nnamdi Asomugha as they eye a trip to the Super Bowl.
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I spent the opening weekend in Las Vegas, which is quite an interesting place to watch football and glean information. Still giddy from watching my beach volleyball hero, Todd Rogers, win the AVP God of the Beach tourney, and my beloved Buckeyes laying the wood to Texas, this week?s $.10?
$.01-I talked with several career sports gamblers, and to a man they all agreed that Week 1 of the NFL season is the easiest week of the year to beat the house (and your friends!). One seasoned vet told me to bet on every team that brings back the at least 4 offensive linemen and the starting QB. And through Sunday, every one of those teams beat the spread. I noticed a lot of over/under lines dropping steadily, and with good reason, as 12 of the first 14 games all went under. For you wannabe gamblers out there, remember this next season, and be sure to tip your cocktail waitresses.
$.02-Further expanding on the lessons from the gamblers, completely ignore Week 1 results the rest of the season. It?s the easiest weekend for flukish results that won?t likely be repeated. It?s easier said than done, but it?s a good idea to curb your enthusiasm or ease your sorrow for your team based solely on Week 1 outcomes. That?s especially true for teams that were unexpectedly strong (Atlanta, Buffalo, St. Louis) or weak (Seattle, Carolina, Kansas City). Keeping that in mind, the next few cents are based on things I saw that look like sure, season-long bets.
$.03-Chicago looked very impressive in blanking Green Bay, but that game was more about how terrible Green Bay is than how good the Bears are. The Packers are brutal in pass protection, and Brett Favre missed a couple of correct WR reads that would have led to big plays had Favre made the correct read too. Any team with a strong defensive line and more than one receiving threat is going to slaughter the Packers, who lack pass coverage ability and speed in the secondary more than any other team.
$.04-Referee Jeff Triplett and his crew were horrible in the Detroit-Seattle game, far below even NCAA standards for officiating. On at least 4 occasions they mis-spotted the ball by at least half a yard; two obvious late hits to the head of Kevin Jones were ignored, one no more than 3 feet from Triplett, who was looking right at it. He later threw a flag for a helmet to helmet hit in which it was really shoulder hitting shoulder. Triplett also threw a flag for a late hit against Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck only after Hasselbeck leapt up and screamed for it. That is scarily unprofessional, and Triplett has long been one of the poorest officials in pro sports. It?s time for the NFL to demote him, or remove him entirely.
$.05-Speaking of Detroit-Seattle, I cannot recall a game so dominated by outstanding defensive line play on both sides of the ball. The Lions? D-line was almost absurdly fantastic against a pretty strong Seattle O-line. DE James Hall made All-World T Walter Jones look very ordinary, and Shaun Rogers was eerily reminiscent of Warren Sapp in the latter?s glory years. Seattle?s D-line also thoroughly dominated, though the Lions? O-line is not a strength. The game was a very impressive display of defensive speed and precision. I?ll be surprised if both teams aren?t in the top 10 in both sacks and yards per carry defensively this season.
$.06-Even though they lost to Arizona, there were lots of positives for San Francisco to take away from Week 1. Alex Smith looked much more comfortable and accurate at QB, and Frank Gore showed he?s a legit feature back. New receivers Vernon Davis and Antonio Bryant consistently got open and made plays. The defensive front 7 looked improved as well, and the team overall looked more disciplined and confident. They still aren?t close to being even a .500 team, but they?re going to be much more competitive in 2006.
$.07-Baltimore?s stunning shutout of Tampa Bay was a statement game for the Ravens, and much less so an indicator of the Bucs. The Ravens core players all know this is the last shot they?re going to get, and they played every single snap like it was the deciding play of the Super Bowl. Baltimore is another team that is going to destroy teams with weak offensive lines, and that is (unfortunately for Tampa fans) the one hole the Buccaneers have right now. It?s hard to maintain that kind of emotion and intensity all season, but if any team can do it, I?ll bet on the one with Ray Lewis and Jonathan Ogden.
$.08-The value of having a competent, capable #2 quarterback cannot be overstated. Pittsburgh has one in Charlie Batch, and the Steelers win over Miami showed that he has the confidence and ability to lead his team to a win. Contrast that with Damon Huard in Kansas City, thrust into the action when Trent Green got knocked out. Huard looked like a timid farm boy on his first time playing pickup ball on the NYC playgrounds, despite the fact he?s been in the league for years. Beware fans of the Colts, Vikings, Eagles, Browns, Seahawks, and Patriots: if your starting QB goes down, your team is in loads of trouble.
$.09-The last two cents are college football thoughts. I?d be remiss to not mention how thoroughly impressive Ohio State looked in winning at Texas. They were clearly the better, deeper, more prepared team, and Troy Smith proved he?s a worthy Heisman frontrunner. The Buckeyes proved me wrong a bit; last week I called them the worst OSU team since Jim Tressel?s first year, and that is wrong. They?re still not near as good as 2005, but this team would make a worthy BCS winner. And doing it with a potent offense is a welcome change for many Buckeye fans, which have been waiting for years for Tressel to fire all his skilled weapons.
$.10-Las Vegas is even better for college football than it is for the NFL. From watching giddy Rutgers fans stumbling around the Flamingo after annihilating Illinois, to Akron fans (mostly happy gamblers with no idea who Zippy is) doing victory laps around the sports book at Aladdin, to the OH-IO chants in Caesars Palace, it?s basically a full day of an extended campus party. When I wildly yelled after seeing my alma mater, Ohio University, had beaten Northern Illinois, I had three different fellow Bobcat alums come up and we shared a congratulatory beer. If you?re a college football fan at all, you must make the pilgrimage to Vegas some fall weekend in your lifetime.
